新媒体对经济危机的影响及其实证分析

发布时间：2018-11-14 17:36

【摘要】：在学界和现实经济活动中,人们关于媒体对社会经济活动的影响和作用,尤其是对经济危机的影响都有所认识;但是,对于其作用机理的认识与理论提炼及经验证明尚存研究空间。新媒体在此次由美国次贷危机引发的经济危机中的作用逐渐凸显,其作用机理表现为:新媒体扩展了经济危机信息的传播范围,加快了其传播速度,促进了其主动传播和有效传播。新媒体对经济危机的作用路径是:(1)新媒体将危机发生的情况以及产生的影响传递出来;(2)国家及微观经济主体对危机信息作出分析和判断,形成新的预期和新的信念,并根据他们新的预期来调整其经济行为;(3)国家及微观经济主体的行为变化又会直接影响着经济危机的扩散或者复苏。当然,这些信息也会被新媒体传递出来最终反映到危机进程中,循环往复,直至经济危机的结束。通过2007年8月至2009年8月澳大利亚、日本和美国的经济数据的实证分析,可以看出,新媒体既可以起到强化经济危机扩散的作用,也可以起到加快经济复苏的作用。
[Abstract]:In the academic circles and the real economic activities, people are aware of the influence and function of the media on the social and economic activities, especially the impact of the economic crisis. However, there is still room for research on the understanding and theoretical refinement and empirical evidence of its mechanism. The role of the new media in the economic crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has gradually become prominent, and its mechanism is as follows: the new media has expanded the scope of the dissemination of economic crisis information and accelerated its dissemination speed. It promotes its active communication and effective communication. The function of new media to the economic crisis is as follows: (1) the new media will deliver the crisis and its impact; (2) the state and microeconomic subjects analyze and judge the crisis information, form new expectations and new beliefs, and adjust their economic behavior according to their new expectations; (3) the behavior changes of state and microeconomic entities will directly affect the spread or recovery of economic crisis. Of course, these messages will also be conveyed in the new media, eventually reflected in the crisis process, cycle, until the end of the economic crisis. Through the empirical analysis of the economic data of Australia, Japan and the United States from August 2007 to August 2009, we can see that the new media can not only strengthen the spread of economic crisis, but also accelerate the economic recovery.
【作者单位】：上海银联电子支付服务有限公司;上海财经大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F831.59;G219.1

【共引文献】