汇率影响实体经济的资产价格路径
发布时间：2018-12-10 16:32
【摘要】：人民币持续升值引发热钱的大量流入,并以此对我国资产市场泡沫的产生发挥了推波助澜的作用。本文将资产价格引入IS—LM模型后,对汇率影响实体经济的资产价格路径进行了理论分析。在此基础上的实证分析结果显示,汇率、房地产销售价格指数与产出之间存在协整关系。短期内,汇率通过股票市场对工业产值的影响在某些时间内非常显著,而其他情况下则十分不确定,有些时间段内从变动方向上来看甚至相反。这种不稳定性,可能与资产价格暴涨对实体经济增长的"挤出效应"有关。
[Abstract]:The continuous appreciation of RMB leads to a large inflow of hot money, which contributes to the emergence of asset market bubbles in China. After introducing asset price into IS-LM model, this paper makes a theoretical analysis on the path of asset price that the exchange rate affects the real economy. On this basis, the empirical results show that there is a cointegration relationship among exchange rate, real estate sales price index and output. In the short term, the impact of the exchange rate on industrial output through the stock market is significant at some times, but in other cases it is highly uncertain, even in the opposite direction in some periods of time. This instability may be related to the "crowding out" effect of asset price inflation on real economic growth.
【作者单位】： 山东经济学院财政金融学院;
【分类号】：F224;F832.6;F127
[Abstract]:The continuous appreciation of RMB leads to a large inflow of hot money, which contributes to the emergence of asset market bubbles in China. After introducing asset price into IS-LM model, this paper makes a theoretical analysis on the path of asset price that the exchange rate affects the real economy. On this basis, the empirical results show that there is a cointegration relationship among exchange rate, real estate sales price index and output. In the short term, the impact of the exchange rate on industrial output through the stock market is significant at some times, but in other cases it is highly uncertain, even in the opposite direction in some periods of time. This instability may be related to the "crowding out" effect of asset price inflation on real economic growth.
【作者单位】： 山东经济学院财政金融学院;
【分类号】：F224;F832.6;F127
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前2条
1 吕江林;李明生;石劲;;人民币升值对中国股市影响的实证分析[J];金融研究;2007年06期
2 王爱俭;沈庆R，
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