就业、出口退税对人民币汇率影响的分析

发布时间：2018-12-18 03:26

【摘要】：解决就业始终是中国宏观经济调控的重要问题,而出口部门的增长也始终是解决就业的重要通道。多年来,就业对出口的依赖性不仅没有下降,而是越来越强。国家为支持出口贸易的增长,不断增强出口退税的力度,从而保证就业的增加。但从2005年以来,随着人民币汇率的升值,出口商品竞争力受到削弱,而为保持出口贸易必要的增长率,又不得不大幅度提高出口退税力度,以缓解人民币汇率升值造成的压力。本文的研究表明,出口退税超额支付的结果,固然改善了企业经营绩效,间接增强了出口商品竞争力,但却造成了人民币汇率"低估"的假象。今后,在继续改革人民币汇率形成机制的过程中,科学厘定出口退税的经济职能,合理确定出口退税额的规模,是改革人民币汇率形成机制的必要条件,也是人民币汇率浮动空间的主要经济参数。
[Abstract]:Solving employment has always been an important issue in China's macroeconomic regulation and control, and the growth of export sector has always been an important channel to solve employment. Over the years, employment has become more and more dependent on exports, rather than falling. In order to support the growth of export trade, the government continuously strengthens the export tax rebate to ensure the increase of employment. However, since 2005, with the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, the competitiveness of export commodities has been weakened. In order to maintain the necessary growth rate of export trade, export tax rebate has to be greatly increased to ease the pressure caused by RMB exchange rate appreciation. The research of this paper shows that the result of the excess payment of export tax rebate can improve the enterprise's operating performance and indirectly enhance the competitiveness of export commodities, but it leads to the false impression that the RMB exchange rate is "undervalued". In the future, in the process of continuing to reform the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, it is necessary to scientifically determine the economic function of export tax rebate and reasonably determine the scale of export tax rebate, which is the necessary condition for the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. It is also the main economic parameter of the floating space of RMB exchange rate.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院财政与贸易经济研究所;江西财经大学国际经贸学院;
【分类号】：F249.2;F752.5;F832.6

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