全球跨境资本流动对经济增长影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-12-20 12:40

【摘要】：自上世纪90年代以来,伴随经济全球化进程的不断推进,国际资本流动规模不断扩大,特别自本次全球金融危机爆发以来,以我国为代表的发展中国家跨境资本流入大幅增加,从而加大了政策执行的难度。国际资本流动在一国经济发展中发挥着怎样的作用?包括直接投资、证券投资、国际银行信贷在内的各类资本流动对一国经济发展的作用是否存在差异?这些问题对于我国合理利用外资、科学对外投资,发挥国际资本流动在我国经济发展中的正效应,防范投机资金频繁流入流出对我国经济造成的冲击具有重要的现实意义。本文首先回顾并总结了国内外国际资本流动的相关理论及实证研究。其次,对1995年以来全球国际资本流动现状及特征进行了深入分析。在此基础上,本文基于68个国家1995-2010年的面板数据,构建Panel Data模型,本文将全部国家分为发达国家、发展中国家、转型国家,并将国际资本流动分为国际直接投资、国际证券投资、其他投资,分别就国际资本流入、国际资本流出对三类国家的经济增长及其他经济因素的影响进行了实证研究。得出以下结论：对所有样本国家而言,国际资本流入对其经济增长有显著的促进作用,国际资本流出对其经济增长作用并不显著。对发达国家而言,国际资本流入对其经济增长有显著的促进作用,其中直接投资和证券投资流入对经济增长的促进作用显著,国际资本流出对其经济增长的促进作用也很显著。对发展中国家而言,国际资本总流入对其经济增长作用不显著,三类投资中只有直接投资流入对经济增长的促进作用是显著的,国际资本总流出对发展中国家的经济增长作用不显著,三类投资中只有证券投资流出对经济增长的促进作用是显著的。对转型国家而言,国际资本流入对其经济增长有显著的促进作用,其中其他投资流入对经济增长有显著的促进作用,国际资本总流出对转型国家的经济增长作用不显著,其中证券投资流出对转型国家的经济增长呈现显著的正效应。最后,本文基于国际资本流动现状及实证研究结果,给出中国对跨境资本管理的政策建议：加强跨境资金的监测和预警；加强对短期跨境资本流动的监管；优化国际资本流入结构,提高外资利用效率；加快“走出去”步伐,切实提高对外投资收益率。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, with the continuous progress of economic globalization, the scale of international capital flows has been expanding, especially since the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the cross-border capital inflows of developing countries, represented by China, have increased significantly. Thus increasing the difficulty of policy implementation. What role does international capital flow play in a country's economic development? Are there any differences in the effects of various capital flows, including direct investment, portfolio investment and international bank credit, on a country's economic development? These problems have important practical significance for our country to make rational use of foreign capital, to invest abroad scientifically, to exert the positive effect of international capital flow in the economic development of our country, and to prevent the frequent inflow and outflow of speculative capital. This paper first reviews and summarizes the relevant theories and empirical studies on international capital flows at home and abroad. Secondly, the current situation and characteristics of global international capital flows since 1995 are analyzed. On this basis, based on the panel data of 68 countries from 1995 to 2010, this paper constructs a Panel Data model, which divides all countries into developed countries, developing countries, countries in transition, and international capital flows into international direct investment. The influence of international capital inflow and international capital outflow on the economic growth and other economic factors of three kinds of countries are studied empirically. The following conclusions are drawn: for all sample countries, international capital inflow has a significant role in promoting their economic growth, while international capital outflow has no significant effect on their economic growth. For developed countries, international capital inflow has a significant role in promoting their economic growth, in which direct investment and portfolio investment inflows promote economic growth significantly, and international capital outflow also plays a significant role in promoting their economic growth. For developing countries, total international capital inflows do not play a significant role in their economic growth, and of the three types of investments, only direct investment inflows contribute significantly to economic growth. The effect of total outflow of international capital on the economic growth of developing countries is not significant. For countries in transition, international capital inflows have a significant contribution to their economic growth, in which other investment inflows have a significant contribution to economic growth, while total international capital outflows have no significant impact on economic growth in transition countries. Among them, the outflow of securities investment has a significant positive effect on the economic growth of the transition countries. Finally, based on the current situation of international capital flows and the results of empirical research, this paper gives some policy recommendations on cross-border capital management in China: strengthening the monitoring and early warning of cross-border capital flows, strengthening the supervision of short-term cross-border capital flows; We should optimize the structure of international capital inflow, improve the efficiency of foreign capital utilization, speed up the pace of "going out", and earnestly raise the rate of return on foreign investment.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F124;F224

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