改革开放以来我国公共投资和私人投资关系动态演进的研究

发布时间：2018-12-24 09:01

【摘要】：投资、消费、净出口被称为拉动经济增长的三驾马车。投资则是启动经济的最快引擎，是宏观调控政策的重要工具。在我国的经济发展中，投资一直是经济增长的最主要动力。金融危机以后，政府投资成为保增长的主导力量，投资增长形成了由政府和国有经济带动的格局。但是，政府投资作为增长动力不具有可持续性。经济增长不可能完全依靠外力保持，同时，政府财政赤字也难以承受长期投资增长的资金需求，投资动力必须向私人投资转换。只有私人投资信心得到有效恢复，经济增长才能真正获得内生的、可持续的动力。如何正确处理公共投资和私人投资关系、鼓励和促进私人投资发展，进而促进经济增长是值得深入研究的一个问题。 本文首先对国内外文献进行了梳理，并从公共投资与经济增长、挤出和挤入效应以及私人投资的决定因素三个视角对相关文献进行了评介。进而对我国宏观和分省公共投资和私人投资的特征事实进行了总结，重点从总量、结构和存在的问题等方面进行分析，并对全国公共投资内部基础设施投资、科教文卫投资和公共管理投资对私人投资的影响进行分析，初步形成了对中国宏观经公共投资和私人投资关系的一个基本判断。 关于地方公共投资与私人投资之间的相互关系，本文采用分省面板数据，，采用格兰杰检验和协整以及VAR脉冲响应分析等静态和动态相结合的方式，不仅研究了公共投资对私人投资是“竞争”还是“互补”，更深入分析了公共投资内部基础设施投资、科教文卫投资和公共管理投资对私人投资的影响。通过研究发现，因地区资源禀赋、经济发展水平、经济结构、政策性因素等方面的差异，公共投资内部构成对私人投资的影响不能一概而论，经济增长、基础设施投资和科教文卫投资对私人投资的影响都表现为正向，但在部分省市表现出负面影响；而公共管理投资对私人投资的影响地区间差异较大。公共投资与私人投资的关系在省市间的差异性表现与经济发展水平和所有制类型有关。在国有经济比重较高的地区，公共投资与私人投资是竞争关系；而在西部不发达地区公共投资与私人投资表现为互补关系。 考虑到我国处在从财政主导型向银行主导型体制转变的过程中，金融发展和财政收入是影响公共投资和私人投资发展及其相互关系的重要因素。本文采用分省面板数据，运用理论分析和实证检验相结合的方法，将金融发展、财政收入、财政分权等变量纳入模型进行研究，发现金融发展和财政分权对公共投资和私人投资及其相互关系的影响省际间存在结构性差异。研究发现，金融发展水平与私人投资水平密切相关，金融发展水平高的地区，金融发展能够有效带动私人投资增长，而金融发展水平滞后的地区，私人投资很难从金融中介获得支持实现快速发展。地方政府公共投资受到财政收入的约束，财政分权程度不同的地方将会产生不同力度的公共投资。财政收入、财政分权对基础设施和科教文卫投资有较大的促进作用，且财政收入和财政分权对基础设施投资的促进作用更大一些。在财政投入有限的情况下，地方政府更倾向于加大基础设施投资力度，而忽视了短期内对地区经济增长促进效果不明显的科教文卫投资。本文还对各省市公共投资的最优比重进行了预测。 最后基于以上实证检验结果的比较分析，在借鉴发达国家先进经验的基础上，提出了改善地方政府公共投资管理和促进民间投资的相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Investment, consumption, and net exports are referred to as a troika of economic growth. Investment is the fastest engine to start the economy, and is an important tool of macro-control policy. In the economic development of our country, the investment has been the main power of economic growth. After the financial crisis, the government's investment has become the leading force of the growth, and the investment growth has formed a pattern driven by the government and the state-owned economy. However, government investment is not sustainable as a driving force. Economic growth is unlikely to rely entirely on external forces and, at the same time, the government's fiscal deficit is hard to bear the capital demand for long-term investment growth, and the investment power must be converted to private investment. Only private investment confidence is effectively restored, and economic growth can truly achieve an endogenous, sustainable power. How to deal with the relationship between public investment and private investment, to encourage and promote the development of private investment, and to promote the economic growth is a problem that is worth further research. This paper reviews the domestic and foreign literature, and reviews the relevant literature from three perspectives: public investment and economic growth, extrusion and squeezing effect and the determinants of private investment. In addition, the paper summarizes the characteristics of public investment and private investment in the macro-and sub-province of China. The emphasis is on the analysis of the total quantity, structure and the existing problems and the investment in the national public investment. The analysis of the influence of investment and public administration on the private investment has formed a basic judgment on the relationship between the public investment and the private investment in China. On the basis of the relationship between local public investment and private investment, this paper adopts the method of combining the static and dynamic combination of the data of the sub-province panel, the Granger test and the association and the VAR impulse response analysis, which not only studies whether the public investment is the 鈥渃ompetition鈥

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