中国资本外逃问题研究

发布时间：2019-01-26 21:31

【摘要】：资本的积累和投入对一国的经济发展至关重要，所以中国从20世纪70年代末起实施“改革开放”政策，，大力吸引外资，有效地提高了生产效率，使得中国经济长期高速增长。但是，在政府通过各种手段大量吸引外资的同时，却有规模相当规模的资本逃过外汇管理部门的监管流向国外，对中国的经济发展造成不利影响。为了对中国的资本外逃规模进行尽量准确的测算，本文于第二章回顾了国内外对资本外逃的不同的界定和测算方法，详细分析比较了直接测算法、间接测算法和混合测算法等的优劣，并对一些中国学者测算的中国资本外逃规模进行了简要评述。第三章结合中国的实际情况和外汇管理部门的监管数据，利用经调整的间接测算法对1987—2010年间中国的资本外逃规模做了较为准确的测算，并简要分析了当前中国既面临大量热钱涌入又面临大规模的资本外逃的原因。第四章选取了一系列经济变量，如经济增长率、通货膨胀率、本币预期贬值幅度、国内外利率差等，通过逐步回归的方法，寻找影响中国资本外逃的最重要因素。最终得出结论，影响中国资本外逃规模的主要因素是本币预期贬值程度、外债占国内生产总值的比重、通货膨胀率和经济增长率。最后，本文讨论了中国资本外逃的主要途径，分经常项目、资本项目，以及其他可能途径进行深入分析，并结合外汇管理当局现有的监测体系提出了保持经济增长、推进金融深化、加大对非法外汇交易的打击力度等防范建议。
[Abstract]:The accumulation and investment of capital is of great importance to the economic development of a country. Therefore, since the end of 1970s, China has implemented the policy of "reform and opening up" to attract foreign capital, effectively improving the efficiency of production, and making China's economy grow at a high speed for a long time. However, while the government attracts a large amount of foreign capital through various means, a considerable amount of capital escapes the supervision of the foreign exchange management department and flows abroad, which has a negative impact on China's economic development. In order to estimate the scale of capital flight in China as accurately as possible, this paper reviews the different definitions and methods of capital flight at home and abroad in the second chapter, and analyzes and compares the direct calculation method in detail. The advantages and disadvantages of indirect and mixed methods are discussed, and the scale of Chinese capital flight calculated by some Chinese scholars is briefly reviewed. The third chapter combines the actual situation of China and the supervision data of the foreign exchange management department, and uses the adjusted indirect calculation method to estimate the scale of capital flight in China from 1987 to 2010. The reasons why China faces both hot money influx and capital flight are briefly analyzed. The fourth chapter selects a series of economic variables, such as economic growth rate, inflation rate, expected devaluation of local currency, interest rate difference at home and abroad, through the method of stepwise regression to find the most important factors affecting capital flight in China. Finally, it is concluded that the main factors affecting the scale of Chinese capital flight are the expected devaluation of the local currency, the proportion of foreign debt to GDP, the rate of inflation and the rate of economic growth. Finally, this paper discusses the main ways of capital flight in China, including current account, capital account, and other possible ways, and proposes to maintain economic growth in combination with the existing monitoring system of foreign exchange administration. Promote financial deepening, increase the crackdown on illegal foreign exchange transactions and other preventive proposals.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

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