美国QE政策对我国货币政策的溢出效应研究
发布时间：2019-02-23 23:22
【摘要】：金融危机爆发以来,美国采取了一系列的量化宽松货币政策(quantitative easing monetary policy简称(QE))以刺激美国经济。受全球经济低迷、美国量化宽松货币政策的影响,我国也实施了适度宽松的货币政策。随着美国QE政策的退出,我国货币政策可能会出现从紧的压力。因此,在中美两国经济发展密切的背景下,研究美国QE政策对中国货币政策的影响以及传导机制,具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文在蒙代尔—弗莱明模型的基础上,加入了预期因素,研究了美国QE政策实施和退出对我国货币政策产生的影响,分析了贸易渠道和资本渠道在美国QE政策外溢效应中的作用。在此基础上本文展开了实证分析,利用美国工业增加值、美国消费者物价指数、美国广义货币供给量、中国广义货币供给量、中国净出口额和中国短期资本流入建立SVAR模型,分析美国QE政策通过不同的渠道对我国货币政策的影响。研究结果表明,美国QE政策在预期效应的影响下通过贸易渠道、资本渠道给我国货币政策的操作带来不确定的因素,产生一定的负面影响。最后,根据上述研究,针对性地提出相关建议,指出我国应加强预期管理、转变经济发展方式、加大资本流动监管、加快人民币汇率形成机制改革、稳步推进金融改革、国际货币体系改革。
[Abstract]:Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the United States has adopted a series of quantitative easing monetary policy, called (QE), to stimulate the U.S. economy. Under the influence of global economic downturn and quantitative easing monetary policy, China has also implemented moderately loose monetary policy. With the withdrawal of QE policy, China's monetary policy may appear tight pressure. Therefore, in the context of the close economic development of China and the United States, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the influence of American QE policy on China's monetary policy and its transmission mechanism. Based on the Mondal-Fleming model, this paper introduces the expected factors to study the impact of the implementation and withdrawal of the US QE policy on China's monetary policy. This paper analyzes the role of trade channels and capital channels in the spillover effect of American QE policy. On the basis of this, this paper makes an empirical analysis, using the industrial added value of the United States, the United States Consumer Price Index, the broad money supply of the United States, the net exports of China and the short-term capital inflow of China to establish the SVAR model. This paper analyzes the influence of American QE policy on China's monetary policy through different channels. The results show that under the influence of expected effect, the QE policy of the United States brings uncertain factors to the operation of our monetary policy through trade channels and capital channels, which has a certain negative impact. Finally, according to the above research, the paper puts forward relevant suggestions, pointing out that China should strengthen the expected management, change the mode of economic development, strengthen the supervision of capital flow, accelerate the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and steadily promote the financial reform. Reform of the international monetary system
【学位授予单位】：苏州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F827.12;F822.0
本文编号：2429325
[Abstract]:Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the United States has adopted a series of quantitative easing monetary policy, called (QE), to stimulate the U.S. economy. Under the influence of global economic downturn and quantitative easing monetary policy, China has also implemented moderately loose monetary policy. With the withdrawal of QE policy, China's monetary policy may appear tight pressure. Therefore, in the context of the close economic development of China and the United States, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the influence of American QE policy on China's monetary policy and its transmission mechanism. Based on the Mondal-Fleming model, this paper introduces the expected factors to study the impact of the implementation and withdrawal of the US QE policy on China's monetary policy. This paper analyzes the role of trade channels and capital channels in the spillover effect of American QE policy. On the basis of this, this paper makes an empirical analysis, using the industrial added value of the United States, the United States Consumer Price Index, the broad money supply of the United States, the net exports of China and the short-term capital inflow of China to establish the SVAR model. This paper analyzes the influence of American QE policy on China's monetary policy through different channels. The results show that under the influence of expected effect, the QE policy of the United States brings uncertain factors to the operation of our monetary policy through trade channels and capital channels, which has a certain negative impact. Finally, according to the above research, the paper puts forward relevant suggestions, pointing out that China should strengthen the expected management, change the mode of economic development, strengthen the supervision of capital flow, accelerate the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and steadily promote the financial reform. Reform of the international monetary system
【学位授予单位】：苏州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F827.12;F822.0
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