上市公司管理层盈利预测及市场反应研究

发布时间：2019-04-04 19:15

【摘要】：提高上市公司信息披露水平和质量不仅关乎着证券市场有效性，同时，也对提高投资者保护水平以及改善公司治理具有重要作用。目前，信息披露方面的研究主要集中在历史信息，对预测信息的研究较少。上市公司管理层发布的盈利预测信息可以及时向投资者传递公司经营成果方面的信息，但是作为一种预测性信息，，它有其固有的不确定性和主观性，并且它与投资者的投资决策有较高的相关度，投资者对待这种预测性信息的风险也有不同的市场反应。上市公司管理层预测信息以及准确性一直都是投资者非常关注的问题，一旦上市公司披露的管理层预测信息存在失真现象，那么投资者在市场中对此类信息就会缺乏“安全感”。当前，作为新兴市场特征非常明显的我国证券市场，在许多方面还不成熟，各项制度建设任重道远，证监会对上市公司的监督与管理还有很多方面需要加强，相关的政策法规也需要完善。另外，由于我国证券市场里大部分是散户，他们很难对上市公司做出准确、科学的评估，不真实的信息不仅会误导投资者，而且对证券市场也会产生负面的影响。上市公司管理层盈利预测信息的准确性不同，所引起的投资者市场反应也是不尽相同的。预测信息的准确性与随后的市场反应（股价反应）之间存在着一定的关系，这种关系恰恰是通过影响投资者的投资决策而影响到公司股价的变化，并由此影响了上市公司股价后续的波动方向和波动幅度。本论文立足于中国上市公司发展的实际，运用信息不对称假设、博弈论、市场效率等分析理论，采用规范和实证的研究方法，对上市公司管理层盈利预测信息行为、准确性及市场反应进行了比较全面、系统和深入的研究，不仅提出了上市公司管理层预测信息准确性问题，并且按照准确性程度进行分类，利用事件研究法把“准确类”和“非准确类”两种不同类型的管理层预测的市场反应（股价反应）和投资者预期进行了研究，即把预测信息准确性和相关性结合起来进行考察，同时也从一个侧面反映出我国上市公司治理结构情况，同时该选题的研究也可以对我国目前上市公司管理层预测信息披露制度的发展和改进起到非常重要的借鉴作用。对投资者客观把握上市公司业绩预测信息具有重要参考意义。
[Abstract]:Improving the level and quality of information disclosure of listed companies is not only related to the effectiveness of the securities market, but also plays an important role in improving the level of investor protection and corporate governance. At present, the research on information disclosure is mainly focused on historical information, but less on forecast information. The profit forecast information issued by the management of the listed company can transmit the information about the company's operating results to the investors in time, but as a kind of predictive information, it has its inherent uncertainty and subjectivity. And it has a high degree of relevance with investors' investment decisions, and investors have different market responses to the risk of this predictive information. The management forecast information and accuracy of listed companies has always been an issue of great concern to investors. Once the management forecast information disclosed by listed companies is distorted, Then investors in the market for such information will lack of "sense of security". At present, China's securities market, which has very obvious characteristics in emerging markets, is still immature in many respects, and the construction of various systems has a long way to go, and the supervision and management of listed companies by the CSRC still need to be strengthened in many aspects. Relevant policies and regulations also need to be improved. In addition, because most of the stock market in our country are retail investors, it is very difficult for them to make accurate and scientific evaluation of listed companies. Untrue information will not only mislead investors, but also have a negative impact on the securities market. The accuracy of management profit forecast information of listed companies is different, and the investor market reaction is also different. There is a certain relationship between the accuracy of the forecast information and the subsequent market reaction (stock price response), which affects precisely the changes in the stock price of a company by influencing investors' investment decisions. And thus affected the stock price of listed companies follow-up fluctuation direction and fluctuation range. Based on the reality of the development of listed companies in China, this paper makes use of the information asymmetry hypothesis, game theory, market efficiency and other analytical theories, and adopts normative and empirical research methods to predict the information behavior of management profitability of listed companies. The accuracy and market response are studied in a comprehensive, systematic and in-depth way, which not only raises the problem of the accuracy of the management forecast information of listed companies, but also classifies them according to the degree of accuracy. Using the event research method, the market response (stock price response) and investor expectation of two different types of management prediction, "accurate class" and "inaccurate class", are studied, that is to say, the accuracy and correlation of forecast information are examined by combining the accuracy and correlation of forecast information. At the same time, it also reflects the governance structure of listed companies in China. At the same time, the research on this topic can also play a very important role in the development and improvement of the management forecast information disclosure system of listed companies in China. It is of great significance for investors to grasp the performance forecast information of listed companies objectively.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F832.51

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