基于JJ检验消费金融对经济增长贡献研究

发布时间：2019-04-29 07:46

【摘要】：对外贸易、投资、消费被喻为我国经济发展的“三驾马车”,但是我国经济的发展一直面临着过度依赖外需、投资,而消费不足的问题。随着国际金融危机的爆发,海外市场萎缩,投资规模下降,我国沿海地区的出口额度大幅降低。依靠投资带动经济增长的可持续性受到诸多质疑,投资带动经济增长已经接近顶峰,同时,过度投资会导致一系列严重的经济后果。消费是经济持续增长的关键因素,也是我国经济增长的薄弱环节。我国经济发展面临着由外需向内需转型、由投资向消费转型的问题。消费金融通过两条途径促进消费需求：一是促进消费信贷增加直接促进消费需求对经济增长的贡献；二是通过提高经济运行效率间接扩大消费需求。消费金融市场未来发展倾向,消费金融产品开发创新倾向,如何最大限度提高消费金融对经济增长贡献率是我国消费金融市场发展而临的最大问题。本文围绕着这一中心问题,采用理论分析与实证分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合、静态分析与动态分析相结合的研究方法,通过对比美国和日本消费金融市场发展概况,指出我国目前消费金融市场发展的不足之处；利用跨期消费理论及序数效用理论,结合我国当前经济形势,对消费者是否选择消费金融产品做出理性分析；利用JJ协整检验及向量误差修正模型实证分析解决短期消费金融产品与长期消费金融产品对经济增长的贡献率问题。与以往研究消费金融对经济增长贡献不同,本文利用消费信贷作为消费金融的衡量指标,并将消费信贷分为短期消费信贷和长期消费信贷,利用JJ协整检验和向量误差修正模型探讨短期消费信贷和长期消费信贷对经济增长贡献大小,通过方差分解和脉冲响应函数对短期消费信贷、长期消费信贷、GDP三个时间序列进行预测,配以计量经济学常用软件Eviews6.0,得出结论：短期消费信贷、长期消费信贷、GDP三个时间序列之间具有长期均衡关系,而且短期消费信贷对GDP增长的贡献大于长期消费信贷,进而表明短期消费金融产品对我国经济增长促进作用更大。本文结论为我国消费金融市场未来发展倾向及消费金融产品开发创新提供理论依据,具有重要的指导意义。
[Abstract]:Foreign trade, investment and consumption are regarded as "troika" of China's economic development. However, the development of China's economy has been faced with the problem of over-dependence on external needs, investment, and insufficient consumption. With the outbreak of the international financial crisis, the overseas market shrinks, the investment scale drops, and the export quota of the coastal area of our country decreases greatly. The sustainability of investment-driven economic growth has been questioned. Investment-driven economic growth has reached its peak, and excessive investment can lead to a series of serious economic consequences. Consumption is not only the key factor of sustained economic growth, but also the weak link of China's economic growth. China's economic development is facing the transition from external demand to domestic demand, from investment to consumption. Consumption finance promotes consumption demand through two ways: one is to promote the increase of consumption credit directly to promote the contribution of consumption demand to economic growth; the other is to indirectly expand consumption demand by improving the efficiency of economic operation. The tendency of future development of consumer financial market, the tendency of innovation in consumer financial product development, and how to maximize the contribution rate of consumer finance to economic growth are the biggest problems facing the development of China's consumer financial market. Around this central problem, this paper adopts the research methods of combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, static analysis with dynamic analysis, By comparing the development of consumer financial markets in the United States and Japan, this paper points out the deficiencies in the development of consumer financial markets in China. With the use of intertemporal consumption theory and sequential utility theory, combined with the current economic situation in China, this paper makes a rational analysis on whether consumers choose to consume financial products or not. The contribution rate of short-term and long-term consumer financial products to economic growth is solved by JJ co-integration test and vector error correction model. Different from previous studies on the contribution of consumer finance to economic growth, this paper uses consumer credit as a measure of consumer finance, and divides consumer credit into short-term consumption credit and long-term consumption credit. The contribution of short-term consumption credit and long-term consumption credit to economic growth is discussed by using JJ co-integration test and vector error correction model, and the contribution of short-term consumption credit and long-term consumption credit to short-term consumption credit and long-term consumption credit through variance decomposition and impulse response function. Three time series of GDP are predicted, together with the commonly used econometrics software Eviews6.0, the conclusion is drawn: short-term consumption credit, long-term consumption credit, GDP three time series have long-term equilibrium relationship. Moreover, the contribution of short-term consumer credit to GDP growth is greater than that of long-term consumption credit, which indicates that short-term consumer financial products play a more important role in promoting economic growth in China. The conclusion of this paper provides a theoretical basis for the future development tendency of China's consumer financial market and the development and innovation of consumer financial products, and has important guiding significance.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832;F124;F224

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