我国的外汇冲销及冲销成本分析

发布时间：2019-05-06 22:51

【摘要】：1994年我国汇率并轨后，国际收支双顺差不断加剧，我国积累的外汇储备越来越多。巨额的外汇储备，不仅使人民币长期面临严峻的升值压力，在我国现有外汇管理体制下，也导致了外汇占款的激增，使货币供应量超常增长，通货膨胀压力日益加大。为了抑制通货膨胀，保持利率与汇率的稳定，货币当局开始采取外汇冲销操作，保证宏观经济平稳运行。由于上世纪90年代我国外汇储备规模并不是很大，因此外汇冲销力度有限。进入21世纪以来，尤其在2003年以后，外汇储备规模迅猛增长，中央银行的冲销频率和力度随之加大。2003年以后，中央银行开始发行央行票据，并频繁上调存款准备金率对冲外汇占款。随着中央银行冲销干预的不断加大，冲销成本问题越来越受到界内学者的关注。本文以1994年汇率体制改革后，我国外汇储备的变动为切入点，说明了央行实施外汇冲销干预的必要性，并介绍了我国主要采取的冲销工具，回顾了央行外汇冲销的实践。基于2003年以后我国外汇冲销力度逐渐加大的事实，文章还通过定量与定性相结合的方法，着重研究了2003年以后中央银行的外汇冲销成本问题。全文分为五部分：第一章为引言，先是从我国经济发展状况引出了本文的研究对象，对论文研究的意义、方法及创新点进行了阐述；第二章对外汇冲销的涵义、冲销的方式进行了介绍，着重分析了我国进行外汇冲销的必要性；第三章回顾了1994年以来，中央银行不同时期的外汇冲销操作，并对外汇冲销的效果进行了评论。随着2003年以来中央银行外汇冲销力度的加大，外汇冲销成本问题开始受到广泛关注，因此，接下来的第四章从三个方面对2003年以来的外汇冲销成本进行了研究，其中用数据和公式对其财务成本、机会成本进行了定量分析，用定性分析的方法对经济扭曲成本进行了全面阐述，，本章最后在对其综合成本加以研究的基础上，得出的结论是在我国央行当前冲销成本过高的条件下，外汇冲销干预具有不可持续性；论文最后针对外汇冲销成本高昂的结论，提出了一些政策和建议。
[Abstract]:After the merger of China's exchange rate in 1994, China's double balance of payments surplus continued to intensify, and China accumulated more and more foreign exchange reserves. The huge amount of foreign exchange reserves not only makes RMB face severe pressure of appreciation for a long time, but also leads to the surge of foreign exchange share under the existing foreign exchange management system in our country, which makes the money supply extraordinary growth and the pressure of inflation increasing day by day. In order to restrain inflation and keep interest rate and exchange rate stable, monetary authorities began to take foreign exchange write-off operation to ensure the stable operation of macro-economy. Since the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves in the 1990s is not very large, the intensity of foreign exchange write-off is limited. Since entering the 21st century, especially after 2003, the scale of foreign exchange reserves has increased rapidly, and the frequency and intensity of write-offs by the central banks have increased accordingly. After 2003, the central banks began to issue central bank bills. And frequently raise the reserve requirement ratio to hedge foreign exchange occupation. With the increasing of the central bank's write-off intervention, the problem of the write-off cost has been paid more and more attention by the scholars in the field. Based on the changes of China's foreign exchange reserves after the reform of the exchange rate system in 1994, this paper explains the necessity of the central bank's intervention in foreign exchange write-off, introduces the main sterilizing tools adopted in our country, and reviews the practice of the central bank's foreign exchange write-off. Based on the fact that the intensity of China's foreign exchange write-off has gradually increased after 2003, the paper also focuses on the issue of the foreign exchange write-off cost of the central bank after 2003 by means of the combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. The full text is divided into five parts: the first chapter is the introduction, first, the research object of this paper is drawn from the situation of our country's economic development, and the significance, method and innovation of this paper are expounded. The second chapter introduces the meaning and the way of the write-off of foreign exchange, and emphatically analyzes the necessity of carrying out the write-off of foreign exchange in our country. The third chapter reviews the foreign exchange write-off operations of central banks in different periods since 1994, and comments on the effects of foreign exchange write-offs. With the increasing intensity of foreign exchange write-off of the central bank since 2003, the issue of the cost of foreign exchange write-off has been paid more and more attention. Therefore, the fourth chapter studies the cost of foreign exchange write-off from three aspects in the following chapter. The financial cost and opportunity cost are quantitatively analyzed with data and formulas, and the cost of economic distortion is comprehensively expounded by qualitative analysis. Finally, on the basis of the study of its comprehensive cost, this chapter makes a comprehensive analysis of the cost of economic distortion. The conclusion is that the intervention of foreign exchange write-off is unsustainable under the condition of the high cost of the current write-off by the central bank of our country. At the end of the paper, some policies and suggestions are put forward in view of the conclusion that the cost of foreign exchange write-off is high.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

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