人民币汇率市场化进程中利率与汇率的关系研究
发布时间：2019-05-08 21:10
【摘要】：在^u放经济环境下，利率市场与汇率市场的运行是一国资源配置、经济运行状况的有效反映。利率与汇率是货币价格的两种表现形式，它们相互联系、相互影响，也是国家宏观调控、维护经济安全和金融稳定的重要政策工具，对于利率与汇率的联动关系的研究有较强的现实意义。我国一直致力于推动人民币汇率的市场化改革，而2005年的汇率制度改革是一个里程碑的事件，，这次改革前后利率与汇率的联动关系是否发生显著变化，对于政策的推进有一定的指导作用。本文以1994年1月至2011年8月期间的人民币利率和汇率数据为研究对象，并2005年7月的人民币汇率制度改革为时间节点，把研究的时间分为两个阶段进行对比研究。最终得出：人民币实际利率与实际有效汇率之间的联动性较弱，虽然汇率制度的市场化改革增强了二者的联动关系，但是这种联动关系还是比较的弱，这和我们现在利率市场和汇率市场没有完全放开有很大的关系。
[Abstract]:Under the economic environment, the operation of the interest rate market and the exchange rate market is an effective reflection of a country's resource allocation and economic performance. Interest rates and exchange rates are two manifestations of monetary prices. They are interrelated and affect each other. They are also important policy instruments for national macro-control and maintenance of economic security and financial stability. It is of great practical significance to study the linkage relationship between interest rate and exchange rate. China has been committed to promoting the market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate, and the reform of the exchange rate regime in 2005 is a milestone event. Whether the linkage between interest rate and exchange rate has changed significantly before and after this reform. It has a certain guiding role for the promotion of policy. This paper takes the RMB interest rate and exchange rate data from January 1994 to August 2011 as the research object, and the RMB exchange rate system reform in July 2005 as the time node, and divides the research time into two stages to carry on the comparative study. Finally, it is concluded that the linkage between the RMB real interest rate and the real effective exchange rate is weak. Although the market-oriented reform of the exchange rate regime has enhanced the linkage between the two, this linkage is still relatively weak. This has a lot to do with the fact that our interest rate market and exchange rate market are not fully liberalized.
【学位授予单位】：上海师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F224
本文编号：2472224
[Abstract]:Under the economic environment, the operation of the interest rate market and the exchange rate market is an effective reflection of a country's resource allocation and economic performance. Interest rates and exchange rates are two manifestations of monetary prices. They are interrelated and affect each other. They are also important policy instruments for national macro-control and maintenance of economic security and financial stability. It is of great practical significance to study the linkage relationship between interest rate and exchange rate. China has been committed to promoting the market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate, and the reform of the exchange rate regime in 2005 is a milestone event. Whether the linkage between interest rate and exchange rate has changed significantly before and after this reform. It has a certain guiding role for the promotion of policy. This paper takes the RMB interest rate and exchange rate data from January 1994 to August 2011 as the research object, and the RMB exchange rate system reform in July 2005 as the time node, and divides the research time into two stages to carry on the comparative study. Finally, it is concluded that the linkage between the RMB real interest rate and the real effective exchange rate is weak. Although the market-oriented reform of the exchange rate regime has enhanced the linkage between the two, this linkage is still relatively weak. This has a lot to do with the fact that our interest rate market and exchange rate market are not fully liberalized.
【学位授予单位】：上海师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F224
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