外汇占款冲销与货币供应区域不平衡

发布时间：2019-05-16 03:30

【摘要】：2005年我国汇率制度改革以来，人民币名义汇率持续升值，但人民币的升值并没有对我国国际收支顺差过大起到缓解作用，反而国际收支顺差呈现进一步扩大趋势。面对不断攀升的外汇储备，央行采用了各种冲销手段来回收外汇占款投放的过量基础货币，但通货膨胀压力却越来越大，特别是房地产价格出现飙升。这一现状促使作者去研究我国汇率制度、国际收支、货币政策与我国经济发展的内在联系，希望通过对其内在运行机制的分析，探析解决我国宏观经济政策及经济发展中存在问题的方法，从而推动我国经济持续快速增长。本文采用协整分析、向量误差纠正模型（VECM）、脉冲响应分析等方法对我国基础货币的内生性进行了计量检验，并对基础货币的回流机制进行了理论分析。分析检验结果发现，2001年之后，净国外资产代替净国内信贷成为影响我国基础货币投放的主要因素，央行票据主要起到回笼基础货币的作用；外汇渠道发行货币的被动性，及冲销手段的各种制约造成我国基础货币不可控，基础货币内生性特征明显。本文建立了区域货币市场模型，对我国区域货币市场均衡进行了静态分析，在此基础上，并运用比较分析法对东部、中部和西部的货币供应和货币需求进行了比较分析，分析结果表明：我国货币供应区域不平衡，东部地区的各项存贷款及现金投放超出了其经济发展的需要，而中西部地区的各项存贷款及现金投放不能满足其经济发展的需要。本文在开放经济盯住汇率制度下，建立了一个外贸开放度不同的两区域模型，对外汇市场冲销干预进行了动态理论分析。分析结果发现，盯住汇率制度下的外汇市场干预使得基础货币发行内生于国际收支，区域间外贸开放度的不同，会导致区域之间基础货币投放的不平衡。我国区域间外贸开放度存在巨大差异，并不适用全国统一的总量性冲销政策，“一刀切”的冲销政策不仅不能起到基础货币的有效回流，而且进一步紧缩了原本资金匮乏的中部和西部资金，使得东部和中西部地区的货币供应严重不平衡。本文运用货币主义分析法，在我国区域货币供应不平衡研究结论的基础上，对我国人民币汇率、国际收支顺差、外汇储备、货币供应、货币需求、内需不足和房地产泡沫之间的联系进行了研究分析。研究结果发现，2002年之后，人民币汇率存在一定程度上的低估，促使经常项目顺差扩大，在人民币升值预期下，国际资本的流入加大了我国资本项目顺差。过分追求汇率稳定，使得外汇储备的增长随着国际收支顺差的不断扩大而快速增长，内生于国际收支的货币发行机制致使货币投放过多，诱发了通货膨胀风险；为抑制通货膨胀压力，央行对外汇占款进行了积极冲销操作，净国外资产不断上升，净国内资产不断下降，货币供应的区域不平衡不断加深；净国内资产的下降致使中部和西部地区的货币需求得不到满足，从而导致消费需求和投资需求不足；净国外资产的不断积累，使得东部沿海地区流动性严重过剩，最终形成投机资本，流入房地产市场造成房地产泡沫的形成。内需的不足使得国内相对过剩的产能需要依赖国外市场来消化，这进一步扩大了国际收支顺差，外汇储备进一步增长，冲销压力越来越大，货币供应不平衡程度逐步加深，这个过程形成一个恶性循环。本文建议通过完善我国汇率形成机制，运用相关外贸政策扩大进口。制定相关的经济政策扩大内需，促进东部、中部和西部经济的平衡发展，逐渐降低我国外部不平衡。根据不同区域的具体经济发展特征制定相应的区域化货币政策，解决货币供应的区域不平衡问题，，促进中西部地区的快速发展，是解决我国内需不足和外部不平衡的根本所在。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of our country's exchange rate system in 2005, the nominal exchange rate of the RMB has continued to appreciate, but the appreciation of the RMB has not helped to relieve the surplus of the balance of payments in our country, but the balance of the balance of payments has further expanded. In the face of the rising foreign exchange reserves, the central bank has used a variety of write-off measures to recover the excess base currency of foreign exchange accounts, but the pressure on inflation is increasing, especially in the case of a surge in real estate prices. The present situation has led the author to study the internal relationship between our country's exchange rate system, the balance of payments, the monetary policy and the economic development of our country. Thus promoting the sustained and rapid growth of our country's economy. In this paper, co-integration analysis, vector error correction model (VECM) and impulse response analysis are used to measure the internal character of the basic currency in China. The analysis and test results show that after 2001, the net foreign assets instead of the net domestic credit have become the main factors that affect the basic money release of our country, the central bank note mainly plays the role of the back-cage base currency, and the foreign exchange channel issue the currency's passivity. The various restriction of the property and the reverse means causes the base currency of our country to be not controllable, and the internal character of the base currency is clear. In this paper, the regional monetary market model is established, and the static analysis of the regional monetary market equilibrium is carried out. On the basis of this, the comparative analysis of the monetary supply and the monetary demand in the east, the middle and the west is carried out by using the comparative analysis method. The results show that the supply region of China is not balanced, and the deposits and cash in the eastern region are out of the need of its economic development, and the deposits and cash in the central and western regions can not meet its economic development. In this paper, a two-region model of foreign trade open degree is set up under the system of the open economy and the exchange rate, and the reverse intervention of the foreign exchange market is made. The result of the analysis shows that the intervention of the foreign exchange market under the system of exchange rate can lead to the difference in the balance of payments and the open degree of foreign trade in the base currency, which can lead to the basic exchange of money between the regions There is a big difference in the open degree of foreign trade in our country, and it is not applicable to the national unified total amount reversal policy. The one-size-fits-one reverse policy can not only serve as the effective return of the base currency, but also tighten the middle part of the original capital shortage. and western funds, so that the supply of money in the east and the central and western regions The paper, on the basis of the conclusion of the non-equilibrium research of the regional monetary supply in our country, applies the monetarism analysis method to the relationship between the RMB exchange rate, the balance of the balance of payments, the foreign exchange reserves, the supply of money, the demand of money, the shortage of domestic demand and the real estate bubble. The result of the study found that, after 2002, the exchange rate of the RMB has been underestimated to some extent, and the current surplus of the current project is expanded, and the inflow of international capital has increased by the expectation of the appreciation of the RMB. The surplus of the country's capital account. The excessive pursuit of the exchange rate is stable, so that the growth of the foreign exchange reserves is growing rapidly with the expansion of the balance of the balance of payments, and the currency issuance mechanism, which is born in the balance of payments, causes the currency to be overthrown and the risk of inflation is induced; The central bank has made a positive write-off on the foreign exchange account, the net foreign assets are rising, the net domestic assets are declining, the regional imbalance of the supply of money is deepening, and the decline of the net domestic assets has led to the central and western currencies The demand is not met, resulting in a shortage of consumer demand and investment demand; the accumulation of net foreign assets, resulting in a serious excess of liquidity in the eastern coastal areas, eventually forming speculative capital and flowing into the real estate market The shortage of domestic demand is that the relative surplus capacity of the country needs to rely on the foreign market to digest, which further increases the balance of the balance of payments, the further growth of the foreign exchange reserves, the increasing reverse pressure and the gradual deepening of the imbalance of the supply of money, which is the process To form a vicious circle, this paper proposes to improve our country's exchange rate forming mechanism and use the phase To expand the import of foreign trade policies, to formulate relevant economic policies to expand domestic demand, to promote the balanced development of the east, central and western economies, and to gradually according to the specific economic development characteristics of different regions, the corresponding regional monetary policy is established, the regional imbalance of the money supply is solved, the rapid development of the central and western regions is promoted,
【学位授予单位】：南开大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.2

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