国际货币体系变革背景下人民币国际化研究

发布时间：2019-05-20 13:53

【摘要】：历史事实表明,国际货币体系必须适应世界经济政治权力格局并随之演变。重大经济或政治事件的发生会促使国际货币体系的变革。2007年源于美国的次贷危机最终演变成为席卷全球的金融危机充分暴露了当前以美元为主导的国际货币体系的缺陷,美国凭借美元的主导地位向其他国家转移风险和危机成本,美国的货币政策通常是在不考虑全球流动性需求的情况下得到实施,成为全球金融不稳定的一个潜在诱因。此次金融危机使我们再次思索和探讨什么样的国际货币体系才能确保全球金融稳定并促进世界经济发展。此次金融危机动摇了美元的国际地位以及世界对美元的信心,当前国际货币体系中美元独大的现状已越来越不符合世界经济发展要求,不能反映世界各国政治经济地位的变化,世界各国对改革当前不公平、不合理的国际货币体系的呼声高涨,国际货币体系要求新的国际货币出现以建立一个公正、公平的多元化国际货币体系。历史经验告诉我们,只要世界上出现超级大国,它的货币就要在国际货币体系里发挥中心作用,19世纪的英镑和20世纪的美元,都是各国时代的国际货币体系的中心货币。2010年中国超越日本成为全球第二大经济体,但人民币并未取得与之相称的国际地位。过去100多年以来,全球第二大经济体的本币并非一种国际性货币的状况实属罕见。对中国这样的大型经济体而言,在与其他经济体开展跨境贸易与投资时,还不得不承担第三国货币汇率波动的风险,这无疑是非常尴尬的。因此,在中国成为世界第二大经济体、本次金融危机引发国际货币体系变革以及世界呼吁新的国际货币出现的背景下,中国应充分利用这一有利的国内和国际形势,根据我国的实际国情和实体经济发展状况,探索出一条最佳的人民币国际化路径,稳步、有序、可控地实现人民币国际化。本文首先阐述了国际货币体系的历史变革背景,国际货币体系演变缓慢,推测它的长期发展趋势必须基于过去的历史,从历史视角审视国际货币体系的变革背景,我们就能发现其演变的规律,并据此展望它的未来。重点阐述了国际货币体系的历史变革背景、当前国际货币体系的现状和缺点以及金融危机动摇当前的国际货币体系,探讨为什么主要国际货币不能解决当前国际货币体系的这些问题,以及人民币国际化能否解决这些问题；接着回顾了主要货币英镑、美元、欧元和日元的国际化进程。深刻了解主要货币国际化的历程,将对人民币的国际化有重要的借鉴意义,这样我们就可以站在前人的肩膀上,从而少走弯路；然后对国际货币体系变革背景下人民币国际化进行了深入的分析。重点阐述了人民币国际化的内涵和角色定位,人民币国际化国内需求和国际需求的变化,以及人民币国际化的成本和收益分析。定量分析人民币国际化可计量的铸币税收益,选取中国周边国家为样本,估算人民币在周边国家和地区国际化后的铸币税收益。接下来深入分析了人民币国际化的现状。从三个方面来考察人民币国际化的进展状况,即从人民币在国际贸易、全球外汇市场和各国外汇储备的使用状况来考察当前人民币国际化的现状。最后在综合前几章基础上,对人民币国际化的发展战略进行展望。本文的结论是：在中国成为世界第二大经济体、本次金融危机引发国际货币体系变革以及世界呼吁新的国际货币出现的背景下,中国应充分利用这一有利的国内和国际形势,人民币国际化应以市场选择为主,政府推动为辅,促进人民币国际化要避免超越我国经济水平承受能力,绝不能为获得货币国际化利益而盲目推进人民币国际化,这只会使自己陷入巨大的逆转风险。要实现人民币国际化,最主要的是要不断增强我国的综合国力,人民币最终能否发展成为国际货币,取决于中国经济能否在未来继续维持较高的增长。因此,现阶段要转变我国经济增长发展方式以确保经济的可持续增长,不断增强我国的综合国力。同时,我国应继续深化和完善金融市场改革,积极参与国际金融合作,提高金融监管水平,增强金融创新能力,为稳步实现人民币国际化提供坚实的后盾。我们有充分的理由相信,人民币国际化是我国综合国力不断增强以及国内金融市场不断完善的必然结果。
[Abstract]:The historical facts show that the international monetary system must adapt to the world economic and political power pattern and then evolve. The emergence of a major economic or political event would lead to a change in the international monetary system. In 2007, the United States-based sub-prime crisis, which eventually evolved into a global financial crisis, fully exposed the current weakness of the current dollar-led international monetary system, The U.S. 'dominance of the United States dollar has shifted the risk and crisis costs to other countries, and monetary policy in the United States is often implemented without regard to global liquidity needs and is a potential incentive for global financial instability. The financial crisis has led us to rethink and explore what kind of international monetary system can ensure global financial stability and to promote world economic development. The financial crisis has shaken the international status of the United States dollar and the world's confidence in the United States dollar. The current situation of the current international monetary system is increasingly inconsistent with the requirements of the world economic development and cannot reflect the change of the political and economic status of all the countries of the world. The international monetary system called for a new international currency to establish a fair and equitable international monetary system. The historical experience tells us that as long as the world has a superpower, its currency will play a central role in the international monetary system, the pound of the 19th century and the beauty of the 20th century The yuan is the central currency of the international monetary system of all times. In 2010, China surpassed Japan as the world's second-largest economy, but the RMB has not made the international ground commensurate with it. In the past 100 years, the local currency of the world's second-largest economy is not an international currency. For large-scale economies such as China, in the case of cross-border trade and investment with other economies, there is no doubt that the risk of a third-country currency exchange rate fluctuation, which is no doubt very embarrassing Therefore, in the context of China becoming the world's second-largest economy, the financial crisis has led to the change of the international monetary system and the background of the world's call for the emergence of new international currencies, China should make full use of this favorable domestic and international shape On the basis of the actual situation of our country and the state of the economic development of the solid, we have explored the best international path of the RMB, steadily, orderly and controllable to realize the RMB international. This paper first expounds the background of the historical transformation of the international monetary system and the slow evolution of the international monetary system. It is assumed that the long-term development trend of the international monetary system must be based on the past history, and we can find the evolution of the international monetary system from the historical perspective. The law of the law and the prospect of it accordingly The future of the international monetary system, the current situation and the shortcomings of the current international monetary system, and the current international monetary system of the financial crisis, discusses the reason why the main international monetary system cannot solve the current international monetary system Some questions, and whether the internationalisation of the renminbi can solve these problems, followed by a review of the international dollar, the dollar, the euro and the yen's international The process of the internationalization of the main currency will be of great reference to the internationalization of the RMB, so that we can stand on the shoulders of our predecessors, so as to reduce the curve, and then make an in-depth analysis of the RMB internationalization in the context of the change of the international monetary system. The analysis of the connotation and role of the RMB internationalization, the domestic demand of the RMB internationalization and the change of the international demand, and the cost and the receipt of the internationalization of the RMB. Benefit analysis. Quantitative analysis of the income of the internationally-measurable cast-in-currency tax of the RMB, select China's neighboring countries as a sample, and estimate the currency of the RMB in the surrounding countries and the region The income of the tax is followed by an in-depth analysis of the internationalization of the The current situation of RMB internationalization is examined from three aspects, namely, the current RMB internationalization is examined from the use of RMB in international trade, global foreign exchange market and foreign exchange reserve At last, on the basis of the comprehensive first few chapters, the development strategy of RMB internationalization The conclusion is that, in the context of China becoming the world's second-largest economy, the financial crisis has led to the change of the international monetary system and the background of the world's call for the emergence of new international currencies, China should make full use of this favorable domestic In the international situation, the internationalization of RMB should be the main market choice, and the government can promote the RMB internationalization to avoid exceeding the bearing capacity of our country's economic level, and must not push the RMB internationalization blindly to obtain the international interest of the currency, which only makes it huge. To realize the internationalization of the RMB, the most important is to strengthen the overall national strength of our country, and whether the RMB will eventually develop into an international currency depends on whether the Chinese economy can continue to maintain in the future Therefore, at the present stage, it is necessary to change the way of the economic growth and development of our country so as to ensure the sustainable growth of the economy and to strengthen our country continuously. At the same time, our country should continue to deepen and improve the financial market reform, actively participate in international financial cooperation, improve the level of financial supervision and enhance the financial innovation ability, and provide for the steady realization of the internationalization of the RMB We have sufficient reason to believe that the internationalization of RMB is the continuous enhancement of the comprehensive national strength of China and the improvement of the domestic financial market
【学位授予单位】：广西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

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