外商直接投资对我国经济增长的作用机制和边际效应研究

发布时间：2019-05-20 19:46

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国利用外商直接投资额一直保持不断增长。外商直接投资通过东道国的国内资本形成、对外贸易、就业和技术等渠道来影响东道国的经济。研究外商直接投资通过上述机制如何影响我国经济就显得尤为重要。本文首先理论分析了外商直接投资在我国的发展现状,然后从资本形成效应、贸易效应、就业效应和技术效应描述性分析并利用中国经济发展的数据,在国家层面实证分析了外资通过这四个机制对我国经济的影响。然后本文在实证分析的基础上结合边际效应分析方法,动态分析外资对我国国内生产总值和不同技术水平制造业全要素生产率的边际效应变化规律。实证结果表明,外商直接投资对我国的资本存在挤出效应；对我国贸易规模的扩大和贸易结构的改变具有促进作用；外商投资企业能够在短期内促进我国就业,但是长期却对我国就业存在挤出效应；对于技术水平较低的制造业,外资的技术效应主要为直接效应,而对于技术水平较高的制造业,外资的技术效应主要为间接效应。根据边际效应的分析结果,发现外资对我国国内生产总值的边际效应呈现先递减再上升最后处于波动变化趋势；外资对不同行业全要素生产率的边际效应,由于每个行业的特征不同,变化的规律也各有不同,但边际效应整体呈效用递减规律。最后根据实证结果和描述性分析的结论,对我国今后引入外资提出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the amount of foreign direct investment in China has been growing. Foreign direct investment affects the economy of the host country through the formation of domestic capital, foreign trade, employment and technology. It is particularly important to study how foreign direct investment affects China's economy through the above mechanisms. This paper first theoretically analyzes the current situation of foreign direct investment in China, and then analyzes and makes use of the data of China's economic development from the descriptive analysis of capital formation effect, trade effect, employment effect and technical effect. At the national level, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of foreign capital on China's economy through these four mechanisms. Then, on the basis of empirical analysis, combined with marginal effect analysis method, this paper dynamically analyzes the variation of marginal effect of foreign capital on gross domestic product (GDP) and total factor productivity (TFP) of manufacturing industry at different technological levels. The empirical results show that foreign direct investment has crowding-out effect on China's capital, promoting the expansion of China's trade scale and the change of trade structure. Foreign-funded enterprises can promote employment in China in a short period of time, but there is a crowding-out effect on employment in China for a long time. For the manufacturing industry with low technological level, the technological effect of foreign capital is mainly a direct effect, while for the manufacturing industry with higher technological level, the technological effect of foreign capital is mainly indirect effect. According to the analysis results of marginal effect, it is found that the marginal effect of foreign capital on China's gross domestic product (GDP) decreases at first, then rises, and then fluctuates. The marginal effect of foreign capital on total factor productivity in different industries is different because of the different characteristics of each industry, but the marginal effect is decreasing in utility as a whole. Finally, according to the empirical results and descriptive analysis conclusions, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the introduction of foreign capital in China in the future.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F124;F224

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