我国外汇储备问题研究
发布时间：2019-05-22 22:56
【摘要】：在开放经济条件下,外汇储备是一国所持有国际储备资产的重要组成部分,是由货币当局持有且流动性较高的外币资产。外汇储备用来调节国际收支的平衡、稳定汇率、进行对外债务的清偿。因此外汇储备是反映一国经济、金融实力的一个重要指标。一定水平的外汇储备不仅是我国顺利开展对外经济贸易的重要保障,还能有效对抗外部金融风险的冲击,保持汇率稳定以及提高我国的国际信誉。 我国外汇储备的发展是一个从无到有,从少到多的过程。目前我国官方有统计的外汇储备数据从1950年开始,从外汇管理局的数据可以看出,从建国初到改革开放前夕,我国外汇储备的年平均持有量为1.7亿美元。1979年改革开放开始,外汇储备较前一阶段有了较大增长,但总体仍处于较低的水平。1994年我国进行了外汇管理体制改革,人民币官方汇率与外汇调剂市场价格并轨,实行以外汇市场供求为基础的、单一的、有管理的浮动汇率制。也是从1994开始,我国开始出现持续的双顺差。国际收支账户的失衡带来了持续增长的外汇储备。1996年我国放松了经常项目的管制,实现了经常项目下的自由兑换,在当年底实现了外汇储备的首次破千亿。外汇储备从此进入持续高速增长阶段。2006年2月我国外汇储备超过日本成为世界第一,2009年6月增长到2万亿美元,2011年3月份,我国外汇储备正式站上3万亿美元的新高。 大量积聚的外汇储备体现了我国国际支付能力的增强和经济实力的增长,除此之外,高额的外汇储备带来了很多负面影响。外汇储备的超常增长带来过量的流动性,增加了通货膨胀的压力。为了维持汇率的稳定和货币政策目标的实现,央行进行频繁的公开市场操作以冲销外汇占款所增加的流动性又支付了高额的成本。另一方面美国的量化宽松政策、债务上限问题以及主权评级的下调,经济复苏的乏力,都使得我国持有的大量美元外汇资产面临缩水的危险,严重影响我国外汇储备资产的安全性及保值增值要求。另外欧元区一些国家也陷入债务危机和财政赤字,使欧元区面临解体危机,我国持有的欧元资产的安全性也因此面临威胁。 外汇储备这把双刃剑使我国政府面临着两大挑战。挑战之一是如何实现外汇储备投资的多元化,包括减持美元资产尤其是美国国债,增持其他货币资产、股权、资源甚至黄金等。更重要的挑战是,如何通过结构调整抑制外汇储备的超常增长。中国外汇储备面临的这些困境和调整也使得外汇储备问题成为最近几年经济学家们研究的一个热点。 正是在这样的背景,本文以国际经济学基本经济理论为依托,运用外汇储备理论、国际收支理论,严格遵从理论研究的学术规范,在大量阅读国内外相关文献的基础上,认真吸取前人研究成果,从我国外汇储备的发展历程、现状、存在的问题及影响、造成我国外汇储备困境的原因等方面对我国外汇储备展开研究,并提出了应对和解决我国外汇储备超常增长的对策。 本文共包括六章,其结构安排如下： 第1章：前言。对选题背景、研究意义进行了相关论述。并对研究外汇储备问题及影响、外汇储备安全性、外汇储备困境的原因相关文献进行了回顾。 第2章：相关概念界定,相关理论综述。阐述了外汇储备的定义以及功能,总结了关于外汇储备规模适度性的相关理论,为下文中评价我国外汇储备规模现状提供一定的理论基础。 第3章：我国外汇储备的基本状况。通过数据和报告来大致划分我国外汇储备发展演变过程,当前的外汇储备整体规模状况。通过对中国官方、美国财政部国际资本系统(TIC)、IMF的官方外汇储备币种结构数据库(COFER)三方面的数据来推断及测算中国外汇储备中的币种结构以及其中美元资产的结构,以便进一步了解外汇储备的状况。 第4章：我国外汇储备存在的问题及影响。在第2章里介绍了衡量外汇储备适度性方面比较有代表性的理论,尽管都存在着各种缺陷,但仍然有一定参考性。而我国的外汇储备不管用哪种衡量方法,都明显存在着规模过大的问题。而通过第3章里的结构分析也可以看出在外汇储备的具体结构上存在着过度集中于美元资产与固定收益资产的问题。我国外汇储备的规模过大、结构不合理的问题带给我国经济的影响在这一部分进行了详细的阐述。 第5章：我国外部经济失衡与外汇储备的超常增长。这一章指出我国的外部经济失衡是造成我国外汇储备增长过快的主要原因,其中经常项目的失衡占据主要地位。因此要分析我国外汇储备增长过快的原因就要从研究经常账户失衡的原因入手。在开放经济条件下,一国的外部经济失衡不可能是单方面的原因。本文分别从美国与我国方面入手,论述了影响我国经常账户失衡的因素,并在数据真实可获的基础上选取了财政收支差额、利率水平、人民币对美元汇率、人口负担系数作为解释变量,用进出口差额替代经常项目顺差作为被解释变量,建立模型进行计量分析。分析的结果证实政府支出的扩大和利率水平的降低有利于经常账户顺差的减少,人口抚养比的降低属于增长经常账户顺差的因素。而人民币的升值对于经常项目顺差的减少并没有明显的影响。 第6章：政策建议。根据前述理论分析及实证结果,分别从减少经常账户顺差以及资本项目顺差的角度提出了缓解外汇储备超常增长的建议。另外还对调节已有外汇储备存量结构方面提出了相关建议。 本文可能的贡献在于对我国外汇储备发展历程、现状、存在问题进行了较为全面的梳理,并从造成我国外汇储备超常增长的根本原因—中国外部经济失衡入手,进行了全面的、系统的、深入的实证分析,从解决经常账户顺差的角度提出了缓解我国外汇储备超常增长的建议。 本文的缺陷也较为明显。在我国外汇储备结构的分析方面,由于数据的局限性,虽然综合了各方资料,但由于采取了较主观的推算方式,缺乏较为客观可信的基础,分析出的结构可能会与我国外汇储备的真实结构情况有较大偏差,参考性因此较差。而对于外汇储备中的非美元资产结构则因为数据较少且比例不大,就没有进行测算。同时鉴于数据的获取、模型的整合、计算量以及篇幅上的考虑,没有从实证的角度去研究我国经济外部失衡中的资本项目顺差对外汇储备超常增长的影响,只是在最后政策建议部分有简要的论述,这是将来有机会可以去完善和深入的地方。另外在解决外汇储备困境上面,着重研究了调节外汇储备增量的影响因素及措施,而关于外汇储备存量投资方向调节的措施方面也只花费了少量篇幅进行论述。而从调存量方面,外汇储备还有许多可待研究的问题。
[Abstract]:In that open economy, the foreign exchange reserve is an important part of the international reserve assets held by a country, and is a foreign currency asset which is held by the monetary authority and has higher liquidity. The foreign exchange reserves are used to adjust the balance of the balance of payments, to stabilize the exchange rate and to pay off the foreign debt. Therefore, foreign exchange reserve is an important index to reflect the economic and financial strength of a country. A certain level of foreign exchange reserves is not only an important guarantee for the smooth development of foreign economic and trade in our country, but also can effectively resist the impact of external financial risks, keep the exchange rate stable and improve the international reputation of our country. The development of China's foreign exchange reserve is a never-to-one, from a few to many From the beginning of the founding of the People's Republic of China to the beginning of the reform and opening-up, the annual average holding amount of foreign exchange reserves of our country was $170 million. The reform and opening-up and opening-up in 1979 At the beginning, the foreign exchange reserves have increased greatly from the previous stage, but are still at a relatively low level. In 1994, the foreign exchange management system reform, the official exchange rate of the RMB and the market price of the foreign exchange market and the introduction of a single, managed floating exchange rate based on the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market system. From 1994 onwards, our country is beginning to have a continuous, double-order The balance of the balance of payments account has led to a sustained increase in foreign exchange reserves. In 1996, China relaxed the control of the current project and realized the free exchange under the current project, and at the end of the year realized the first breaking of foreign exchange reserves In February 2006, China's foreign exchange reserves surpassed Japan as the first world in the world. In June of 2009, China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $2 trillion. In March,2011, China's foreign exchange reserves have been on the top of $3 trillion in new foreign exchange reserves. High. The foreign exchange reserves accumulated in a large amount reflect the increase of the international payment ability of our country and the growth of the economic strength. In addition, the high foreign exchange reserves have brought a lot of negative The effect of the face. The extraordinary growth of foreign exchange reserves has brought about an excess of liquidity, increasing inflation. In order to maintain the stability of the exchange rate and the realization of the monetary policy objective, the central bank has carried out frequent open market operations to reverse the liquidity of the foreign exchange account and to pay high On the other hand, on the other hand, the US's quantitative easing policy, the debt ceiling and the down-regulation of the sovereign rating and the weakness of the economic recovery have made the foreign exchange assets of the large amount held by our country face the risk of shrinking, which seriously affects the security of the foreign exchange reserve assets and the increasing and increasing of the value of the foreign exchange reserve assets in our country. In addition, some countries in the euro zone are also in debt crisis and fiscal deficits, making the euro zone face a break-up crisis, and the security of the euro's assets held in my country is, therefore, The threat of foreign exchange reserves the double-edged sword to face the government of our country One of the challenges is how to diversify its foreign exchange reserves, including the reduction of dollar assets, in particular U.S. Treasury bonds, and other monetary assets, equity, resources, Even gold and so on. The more important challenge is how to suppress foreign exchange reserves through structural adjustment These difficulties and adjustments in China's foreign exchange reserves have also made foreign exchange reserves the most recent of economists in recent years It is in this background that, based on the basic economic theory of international economics, this paper uses the theory of foreign exchange reserves, the theory of balance of payments and the academic standard of strict compliance with the theoretical research. Based on the previous research results, the paper studies the foreign exchange reserve in our country from the development course, the present situation, the existing problems and the influence of the foreign exchange reserve in our country, and puts forward the countermeasures and the solution to the foreign exchange reserve in our country. The countermeasure of the extraordinary growth. Chapter, its structure arrangement The following: Chapter 1: Preface. For the background of the subject matter, The significance of the study is discussed in this paper. The problems and effects of foreign exchange reserves, the security of foreign exchange reserves and the difficulties of foreign exchange reserve are also discussed. The reason-related literature was reviewed. Chapter 2: The definition and function of foreign exchange reserve are described in this paper. The relevant theories on the scale of foreign exchange reserves are summarized, and the foreign exchange reserve is evaluated in the following. The present situation of scale provides a certain theoretical foundation. Chapter 3: The basic status of China's foreign exchange reserves. The overall size of the current foreign exchange reserves is based on data from the Chinese authorities, the United States Treasury International Capital System (TIC), the IMF's official foreign exchange reserve currency structure database (COFER), and the calculation of China's foreign exchange reserves. Currency structure and structure of United States dollar assets In order to further understand the status of foreign exchange reserves. Chapter 4: The problems and effects of the foreign exchange reserve in China. In the second chapter, the representative theory of the degree of degree of the foreign exchange reserve is introduced, though both There are various defects, but there is still some reference. China's foreign exchange reserves are no matter what kind of scale it is used In the third chapter, it can also be seen that there is an excessive amount of foreign exchange reserves The problems of the assets of dollar assets and fixed income are concentrated in China. The large scale of foreign exchange reserves and the unreasonable structure of our country's foreign exchange reserves are brought to our country. The effects of the economy are described in detail in this section. Chapter 5 This chapter points out that the external economic imbalance of our country is the main cause of the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves in our country For the reason, the imbalance of the current project is the main position. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves in our country The reason for this is to start with the balance of the current account of the study. Under the open economic conditions, The external economic imbalance of a country is not likely to be a unilateral cause. This paper, starting with the aspects of the United States and our country, discusses the factors that affect the current account balance of our country, and on the basis of the real availability of the data, we have chosen the difference of fiscal revenue and expenditure, the level of interest rate, the people The exchange rate of the currency against the dollar and the burden of the population is used as an explanatory variable, and the import and export difference is used to replace the regular project. The results of the analysis confirm that the expansion of government expenditure and the reduction of interest rate are beneficial to the decrease of the current account surplus and the population The reduction of the dependency ratio is a factor in the growth of the current account surplus, and the appreciation of the RMB for the current account surplus The reduction does not have a clear impact. Chapter 6: Policy recommendations. Based on the foregoing theoretical analysis and the empirical results, the current account surplus and the capital project are reduced from the reduced current account, respectively. The angle of surplus has put forward the suggestion to alleviate the extraordinary growth of foreign exchange reserve. The paper puts forward some suggestions on the adjustment of the existing structure of foreign exchange reserves. The possible contribution of this paper is to make a more comprehensive analysis of the development of foreign exchange reserves in China, the present situation, the existing problems, and the root cause of the abnormal growth of foreign exchange reserves in China and the external economy of China. Starting with the imbalance, a comprehensive, systematic and in-depth empirical analysis is carried out, from which to solve the current account The angle of the surplus has put forward the relief of me In the analysis of China's foreign exchange reserve structure, because of the limitation of the data, because of the limitation of the data, because of the limitation of the data, the data of all the parties are integrated, but because of the subjective calculation method, the lack of the more objective and credible basis, the analysis shows that The structure may be with me The real structure of the country's foreign exchange reserves has a large deviation, and the reference is therefore poor. The meta-asset structure has not been calculated because the data is small and the proportion is small. At the same time, in view of the acquisition of the data, the integration of the model, the calculation quantity and the consideration of the space, there is no empirical study to study the surplus of the capital account in the external imbalances of our country to the foreign exchange reserves The effect of extraordinary growth is only in the final policy recommendations This is a brief discussion, which is a place to be perfected and in-depth in the future. In addition to solving the difficulties of foreign exchange reserves, the factors and measures to adjust the increment of foreign exchange reserve are emphatically studied, and on the deposit of foreign exchange reserves Only a small amount of space is spent on measures to regulate the amount of investment
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6
本文编号：2483349
[Abstract]:In that open economy, the foreign exchange reserve is an important part of the international reserve assets held by a country, and is a foreign currency asset which is held by the monetary authority and has higher liquidity. The foreign exchange reserves are used to adjust the balance of the balance of payments, to stabilize the exchange rate and to pay off the foreign debt. Therefore, foreign exchange reserve is an important index to reflect the economic and financial strength of a country. A certain level of foreign exchange reserves is not only an important guarantee for the smooth development of foreign economic and trade in our country, but also can effectively resist the impact of external financial risks, keep the exchange rate stable and improve the international reputation of our country. The development of China's foreign exchange reserve is a never-to-one, from a few to many From the beginning of the founding of the People's Republic of China to the beginning of the reform and opening-up, the annual average holding amount of foreign exchange reserves of our country was $170 million. The reform and opening-up and opening-up in 1979 At the beginning, the foreign exchange reserves have increased greatly from the previous stage, but are still at a relatively low level. In 1994, the foreign exchange management system reform, the official exchange rate of the RMB and the market price of the foreign exchange market and the introduction of a single, managed floating exchange rate based on the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market system. From 1994 onwards, our country is beginning to have a continuous, double-order The balance of the balance of payments account has led to a sustained increase in foreign exchange reserves. In 1996, China relaxed the control of the current project and realized the free exchange under the current project, and at the end of the year realized the first breaking of foreign exchange reserves In February 2006, China's foreign exchange reserves surpassed Japan as the first world in the world. In June of 2009, China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $2 trillion. In March,2011, China's foreign exchange reserves have been on the top of $3 trillion in new foreign exchange reserves. High. The foreign exchange reserves accumulated in a large amount reflect the increase of the international payment ability of our country and the growth of the economic strength. In addition, the high foreign exchange reserves have brought a lot of negative The effect of the face. The extraordinary growth of foreign exchange reserves has brought about an excess of liquidity, increasing inflation. In order to maintain the stability of the exchange rate and the realization of the monetary policy objective, the central bank has carried out frequent open market operations to reverse the liquidity of the foreign exchange account and to pay high On the other hand, on the other hand, the US's quantitative easing policy, the debt ceiling and the down-regulation of the sovereign rating and the weakness of the economic recovery have made the foreign exchange assets of the large amount held by our country face the risk of shrinking, which seriously affects the security of the foreign exchange reserve assets and the increasing and increasing of the value of the foreign exchange reserve assets in our country. In addition, some countries in the euro zone are also in debt crisis and fiscal deficits, making the euro zone face a break-up crisis, and the security of the euro's assets held in my country is, therefore, The threat of foreign exchange reserves the double-edged sword to face the government of our country One of the challenges is how to diversify its foreign exchange reserves, including the reduction of dollar assets, in particular U.S. Treasury bonds, and other monetary assets, equity, resources, Even gold and so on. The more important challenge is how to suppress foreign exchange reserves through structural adjustment These difficulties and adjustments in China's foreign exchange reserves have also made foreign exchange reserves the most recent of economists in recent years It is in this background that, based on the basic economic theory of international economics, this paper uses the theory of foreign exchange reserves, the theory of balance of payments and the academic standard of strict compliance with the theoretical research. Based on the previous research results, the paper studies the foreign exchange reserve in our country from the development course, the present situation, the existing problems and the influence of the foreign exchange reserve in our country, and puts forward the countermeasures and the solution to the foreign exchange reserve in our country. The countermeasure of the extraordinary growth. Chapter, its structure arrangement The following: Chapter 1: Preface. For the background of the subject matter, The significance of the study is discussed in this paper. The problems and effects of foreign exchange reserves, the security of foreign exchange reserves and the difficulties of foreign exchange reserve are also discussed. The reason-related literature was reviewed. Chapter 2: The definition and function of foreign exchange reserve are described in this paper. The relevant theories on the scale of foreign exchange reserves are summarized, and the foreign exchange reserve is evaluated in the following. The present situation of scale provides a certain theoretical foundation. Chapter 3: The basic status of China's foreign exchange reserves. The overall size of the current foreign exchange reserves is based on data from the Chinese authorities, the United States Treasury International Capital System (TIC), the IMF's official foreign exchange reserve currency structure database (COFER), and the calculation of China's foreign exchange reserves. Currency structure and structure of United States dollar assets In order to further understand the status of foreign exchange reserves. Chapter 4: The problems and effects of the foreign exchange reserve in China. In the second chapter, the representative theory of the degree of degree of the foreign exchange reserve is introduced, though both There are various defects, but there is still some reference. China's foreign exchange reserves are no matter what kind of scale it is used In the third chapter, it can also be seen that there is an excessive amount of foreign exchange reserves The problems of the assets of dollar assets and fixed income are concentrated in China. The large scale of foreign exchange reserves and the unreasonable structure of our country's foreign exchange reserves are brought to our country. The effects of the economy are described in detail in this section. Chapter 5 This chapter points out that the external economic imbalance of our country is the main cause of the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves in our country For the reason, the imbalance of the current project is the main position. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves in our country The reason for this is to start with the balance of the current account of the study. Under the open economic conditions, The external economic imbalance of a country is not likely to be a unilateral cause. This paper, starting with the aspects of the United States and our country, discusses the factors that affect the current account balance of our country, and on the basis of the real availability of the data, we have chosen the difference of fiscal revenue and expenditure, the level of interest rate, the people The exchange rate of the currency against the dollar and the burden of the population is used as an explanatory variable, and the import and export difference is used to replace the regular project. The results of the analysis confirm that the expansion of government expenditure and the reduction of interest rate are beneficial to the decrease of the current account surplus and the population The reduction of the dependency ratio is a factor in the growth of the current account surplus, and the appreciation of the RMB for the current account surplus The reduction does not have a clear impact. Chapter 6: Policy recommendations. Based on the foregoing theoretical analysis and the empirical results, the current account surplus and the capital project are reduced from the reduced current account, respectively. The angle of surplus has put forward the suggestion to alleviate the extraordinary growth of foreign exchange reserve. The paper puts forward some suggestions on the adjustment of the existing structure of foreign exchange reserves. The possible contribution of this paper is to make a more comprehensive analysis of the development of foreign exchange reserves in China, the present situation, the existing problems, and the root cause of the abnormal growth of foreign exchange reserves in China and the external economy of China. Starting with the imbalance, a comprehensive, systematic and in-depth empirical analysis is carried out, from which to solve the current account The angle of the surplus has put forward the relief of me In the analysis of China's foreign exchange reserve structure, because of the limitation of the data, because of the limitation of the data, because of the limitation of the data, the data of all the parties are integrated, but because of the subjective calculation method, the lack of the more objective and credible basis, the analysis shows that The structure may be with me The real structure of the country's foreign exchange reserves has a large deviation, and the reference is therefore poor. The meta-asset structure has not been calculated because the data is small and the proportion is small. At the same time, in view of the acquisition of the data, the integration of the model, the calculation quantity and the consideration of the space, there is no empirical study to study the surplus of the capital account in the external imbalances of our country to the foreign exchange reserves The effect of extraordinary growth is only in the final policy recommendations This is a brief discussion, which is a place to be perfected and in-depth in the future. In addition to solving the difficulties of foreign exchange reserves, the factors and measures to adjust the increment of foreign exchange reserve are emphatically studied, and on the deposit of foreign exchange reserves Only a small amount of space is spent on measures to regulate the amount of investment
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6
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