差别化信贷政策对成都市商品住房市场发展的影响研究
发布时间：2019-05-24 02:55
【摘要】：随着中国城市化水平的提高,流动人口的增加,使得在中国的商品住房市场中存在着巨大的购房需求。但是过高的房价使得潜在的购房群体买不起住房。另外,商品住房市场的状况和宏观经济的发展紧密相关,商品住房市场的投资过热,会引起经济的不平衡发展,过高的房价可能引起房地产泡沫。中国房地产中的问题已经成为重大的社会问题、民生问题、经济问题。在这种背景下,国家出台了差别化信贷政策,试图对这些问题进行解决。 本文总的研究目标是分析差别化信贷政策对成都商品住房的影响。在这一总的目标之下,本文要回答的问题是国家出台的差别化信贷政策的目标是什么,测量成都商品住房市场发展的可操作化指标、成都商品住房市场的发展状况、差别化信贷政策在往期的状况和近期预测中对成都商品住房的成交、供给、存量三个方面的影响。通过对成都市2007年至2011年商品住房市场数据和成都商品住房市场状况进行分析,利用时间序列分析的方法,对成都2012年1月到12月的主要指标进行了预测。通过成都商品住房市场的状况和趋势预测,对差别化信贷的政策影响进行分析。 通过研究发现国家出台差别化信贷政策的主要目标是有三个,一是推动住房购买行为中坚持基本的“住有所居”目标。二是扼制购房者的投机行为。三是控制商品住房市场的投资过热。 在对成都商品住房市场发展状况的分析中,可以从商品住房市场的成交、供给和存量三方面的指标进行测量。成都商品住宅在近几年发展状况的主要特征是：(1)在2010年实行差别化信贷政策后至2011年第一季度,成交均价、成交的面积、供给面积均呈现了上涨趋势,存量面积保持了稳定的状态；在2011年二季度后,成交面积在保持了在低位徘徊,在供给面积方面,从四季度出现了下降。(2)在其他方面上,小户型住宅的成交面积占总面积的比重在总体趋势上并没有呈现明显增加的趋势,别墅类型的住宅在成交面积和供给面积上并没有出现下降,存量面积因为供给面积的增加而出现了大幅增加。 差别化信贷政策对成都商品住房市场往期的状况和近期预测表现出的影响中,主要表现为：(1)差别化信贷政策对成都商品住宅市场的成交面积产生了较大的影响,说明差别化信贷政策减少购房投机行为。差别化信贷政策使得成交均价在2012年没有呈现继续上涨的趋势,这有助于抑制住宅市场的投资过热。但是差别化信贷政策并没有表现出对成都的商品住宅市场成交的户型分布的影响,这不利于推动商品住房市场实现“住有所居”的目标,说明还需要国家其他政策的配套,才能达到这一目标。(2)从供给和存量方面来看,差别化信贷政策对成都房地产的影响极其微弱,从这些指标上没有实现差别化信贷政策抑制投资过热、推动住有所居等目标 通过这些分析,本文提出了政策建议,主要是：继续严格实施差别化信贷政策,扼制购房中的投机行为；发展保障性住房,调整住房的供给结构；促进小户型住房的供给,考虑对低收入人群在购房方面予以支持；结合土地政策、税收政策等,配合差别化信贷政策,控制房地产投资过热。
[Abstract]:With the improvement of China's urbanization level and the increase of the floating population, there is a huge demand for housing in the commodity housing market in China. But over-the-price housing prices have made it possible for potential buyers to be able to afford housing. In addition, the situation of the commodity housing market and the development of the macro-economy are closely related, the investment of the commodity housing market is overheated, the unbalanced development of the economy can be caused, and the excessive house price may cause the real estate bubble. The problems in China's real estate have become a major social problem, civil and economic problems. In this context, the State has introduced differential credit policies to address these issues. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the shadow of the differential credit policy to the commodity house in Chengdu In this general objective, the question to be answered in this paper is what the goal of the differentiated credit policy of the state is to measure, measure the operational index of the development of the commodity housing market in Chengdu, and the development of the commodity housing market in Chengdu The status of the differential credit policy and the shadow of three aspects of the transaction, supply and stock of the commercial housing in Chengdu in the current situation and the near-term forecast In response to the analysis of the data of the commercial housing market in Chengdu from 2007 to 2011 and the status of the Chengdu commercial housing market, the main indexes of Chengdu from January to December 2012 were pre-determined by using the method of time series analysis. Measurement. The policy impact on differential credit is divided through the status and trend prediction of the Chengdu commodity housing market. The first one is to promote the basic "to live in a house" Objectives. The second is to choke the investment of homebuyers The third is to control the investment in the commodity housing market In the analysis of the development situation of the commodity housing market in Chengdu, it is possible to refer to the three aspects of the transaction, supply and stock of the commodity housing market The main characteristics of the development of Chengdu Commodity House in recent years are as follows: (1) After the introduction of the differential credit policy in 2010 to the first quarter of 2011, the transaction average price, the volume of the transaction and the supply area show an upward trend, and the stock area remains stable; in 2011 After the second quarter of the year, the deal area remained in the low position, and in terms of supply area, it was from the fourth quarter. (2) In other respects, the proportion of the total area occupied by the small-sized house does not show a significant increase in the overall trend, and the house of the villa type is not in the deal area and the supply area There is a decrease in the stock area due to the increase in the supply area The effect of differential credit policy on the current situation and the recent forecast of the commercial housing market in Chengdu is mainly shown as follows: (1) The differential credit policy has a good deal area of the commercial housing market in Chengdu have a great influence on the differentiation of credit policy A small amount of speculative behavior. The differential credit policy makes the average value of the transaction not present in 2012, which can help to restrain the house. The investment of the market is too hot. But the differential credit policy does not show the impact on the distribution of the family size of the commercial housing market in Chengdu, which is not conducive to the promotion of the "to live in a house" of the commodity housing market, and the description also requires the matching of other national policies (2) In terms of supply and stock, the impact of differential credit policy on the real estate in Chengdu is extremely weak. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the target through these analyses. The policy suggestions are: to continue to strictly implement the differential credit policy, to restrain the speculative behavior in the house purchase, to develop the supportability housing, to adjust the supply structure of the housing, to promote the supply of the small-sized housing, to consider the support of the low-income people in the purchase of the house, and to combine the soil land policy, tax policy and so on, cooperate with the differential credit policy,
【学位授予单位】：四川农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.4
本文编号：2484483
[Abstract]:With the improvement of China's urbanization level and the increase of the floating population, there is a huge demand for housing in the commodity housing market in China. But over-the-price housing prices have made it possible for potential buyers to be able to afford housing. In addition, the situation of the commodity housing market and the development of the macro-economy are closely related, the investment of the commodity housing market is overheated, the unbalanced development of the economy can be caused, and the excessive house price may cause the real estate bubble. The problems in China's real estate have become a major social problem, civil and economic problems. In this context, the State has introduced differential credit policies to address these issues. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the shadow of the differential credit policy to the commodity house in Chengdu In this general objective, the question to be answered in this paper is what the goal of the differentiated credit policy of the state is to measure, measure the operational index of the development of the commodity housing market in Chengdu, and the development of the commodity housing market in Chengdu The status of the differential credit policy and the shadow of three aspects of the transaction, supply and stock of the commercial housing in Chengdu in the current situation and the near-term forecast In response to the analysis of the data of the commercial housing market in Chengdu from 2007 to 2011 and the status of the Chengdu commercial housing market, the main indexes of Chengdu from January to December 2012 were pre-determined by using the method of time series analysis. Measurement. The policy impact on differential credit is divided through the status and trend prediction of the Chengdu commodity housing market. The first one is to promote the basic "to live in a house" Objectives. The second is to choke the investment of homebuyers The third is to control the investment in the commodity housing market In the analysis of the development situation of the commodity housing market in Chengdu, it is possible to refer to the three aspects of the transaction, supply and stock of the commodity housing market The main characteristics of the development of Chengdu Commodity House in recent years are as follows: (1) After the introduction of the differential credit policy in 2010 to the first quarter of 2011, the transaction average price, the volume of the transaction and the supply area show an upward trend, and the stock area remains stable; in 2011 After the second quarter of the year, the deal area remained in the low position, and in terms of supply area, it was from the fourth quarter. (2) In other respects, the proportion of the total area occupied by the small-sized house does not show a significant increase in the overall trend, and the house of the villa type is not in the deal area and the supply area There is a decrease in the stock area due to the increase in the supply area The effect of differential credit policy on the current situation and the recent forecast of the commercial housing market in Chengdu is mainly shown as follows: (1) The differential credit policy has a good deal area of the commercial housing market in Chengdu have a great influence on the differentiation of credit policy A small amount of speculative behavior. The differential credit policy makes the average value of the transaction not present in 2012, which can help to restrain the house. The investment of the market is too hot. But the differential credit policy does not show the impact on the distribution of the family size of the commercial housing market in Chengdu, which is not conducive to the promotion of the "to live in a house" of the commodity housing market, and the description also requires the matching of other national policies (2) In terms of supply and stock, the impact of differential credit policy on the real estate in Chengdu is extremely weak. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the target through these analyses. The policy suggestions are: to continue to strictly implement the differential credit policy, to restrain the speculative behavior in the house purchase, to develop the supportability housing, to adjust the supply structure of the housing, to promote the supply of the small-sized housing, to consider the support of the low-income people in the purchase of the house, and to combine the soil land policy, tax policy and so on, cooperate with the differential credit policy,
【学位授予单位】：四川农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.4
【引证文献】
相关博士学位论文 前3条
1 葛龙;基于GARCH和COPULA的天津房地产市场预测[D];天津大学;2008年
2 杜雪君;房地产税对房价的影响机理与实证分析[D];浙江大学;2009年
3 王刚;货币政策调控对房地产市场的影响研究[D];西南财经大学;2010年
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