中国城乡居民缓冲储备储蓄行为的实证分析

发布时间：2019-05-28 04:04

【摘要】：居民储蓄存款是社会总储蓄的重要组成部分,也是推动经济增长的重要资金来源。居民储蓄存款在经济发展中发挥着极其重要的作用。居民储蓄的快速增长,是我国经济发展的主要资金来源,是改革开放顺利进行的重要保证。然而,过度储蓄构成经济的一种潜在威胁,本文的目的是研究我国城乡居民储蓄的特点,从而寻求影响我国城乡居民高储蓄率的原因,以期发现降低储蓄扩大内需的对策。本文在借鉴缓冲储备储蓄模型的基础上,对模型进行适当改进——加入了居民持有财富的不确定性,使其更加符合我国城乡居民的储蓄行为。由于Beffer Stock模型不存在确定的解析解,所以给该模型的实证带来了相当大的困难,本文采用Carroll和Samwick (1997、1998)在兼顾外生流动性约束和内生流动性约束的条件下,利用倒推法得到模型的模拟结果,然后利用我国29个省市、自治区的数据,建立面板数据模型,通过总体和分地区的模型估计发现：1、缓冲储备储蓄模型能够很好地解释我国居民的储蓄行为。2、作为目标财富与收入比的替代变量—储蓄与耐用品的和与收入的比,除了受收入不确定性,还受财富不确定性影响。3、影响城乡目标持有财富与收入比的因素地区间不相同,东部和东北部地区受收入不确定性的因素影响较小,而西部和中部地区受到财富不确定性的影响较大。
[Abstract]:Household savings deposit is not only an important part of total social savings, but also an important source of funds to promote economic growth. Household savings deposits play an extremely important role in economic development. The rapid growth of residents' savings is the main source of funds for China's economic development and an important guarantee for the smooth progress of reform and opening up. However, excessive savings constitute a potential threat to the economy. The purpose of this paper is to study the characteristics of urban and rural residents' savings in China, so as to seek the reasons that affect the high savings rate of urban and rural residents in China, in order to find out the countermeasures to reduce savings and expand domestic demand. On the basis of drawing lessons from the buffer reserve savings model, this paper makes an appropriate improvement to the model by adding the uncertainty of residents holding wealth to make it more in line with the savings behavior of urban and rural residents in China. Because there is no definite analytical solution in Beffer Stock model, it is quite difficult to prove the model. In this paper, Carroll and Samwick (1997, 1998) are used under the condition of taking into account both exogenous liquidity constraint and endogenic liquidity constraint. The simulation results of the model are obtained by backstepping method, and then the panel data model is established by using the data of 29 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China. Through the overall and regional model estimation, it is found that: 1, The buffer reserve savings model can well explain the savings behavior of Chinese residents. 2. As an alternative variable of the target wealth to income ratio-the sum of savings and durable goods to income, in addition to the uncertainty of income, It is also affected by wealth uncertainty. 3, the factors that affect the ratio of urban and rural target holding wealth to income vary from region to region, while the eastern and north-eastern regions are less affected by income uncertainty. The western and central regions are greatly affected by wealth uncertainty.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F832.22

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