金融危机背景下中国的投资乘数效应与防通胀分析
发布时间：2019-06-04 21:05
【摘要】：中央启动的4万亿投资拉动内需应对国际金融危机的战略方针,对我国经济止滑提速、在全球经济中率先实现复苏起到了巨大的作用。但是,大规模投资在促进经济发展的同时,必然会带来一定的通胀压力。本文通过模型分析预测,到2011年的二、三季度,CPI增速将出现8%—10%的峰值,并将在一个相当长的时期内保持小幅振荡前行趋势,并存在使地方过度投资和产能过剩问题的隐患。要科学合理利用4万亿投资的投资乘数和引致因素产生的超大规模投资,消除通胀隐患,必须通过工业化、城镇化与农业现代化的联动和三次产业互动,保障产业、民生和基础并重,加强预警机制建设等有效化解通胀压力,确保经济平稳增长。
[Abstract]:The strategic policy of 4 trillion investment initiated by the central government to stimulate domestic demand to deal with the international financial crisis has played a great role in the recovery of China's economy and taking the lead in achieving recovery in the global economy. However, large-scale investment in promoting economic development at the same time, will inevitably bring certain inflationary pressure. Through model analysis, this paper forecasts that CPI growth will peak at 8% 鈮，
本文编号：2493001
[Abstract]:The strategic policy of 4 trillion investment initiated by the central government to stimulate domestic demand to deal with the international financial crisis has played a great role in the recovery of China's economy and taking the lead in achieving recovery in the global economy. However, large-scale investment in promoting economic development at the same time, will inevitably bring certain inflationary pressure. Through model analysis, this paper forecasts that CPI growth will peak at 8% 鈮，
本文编号：2493001
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