近代中国白银购买力的变动及影响（1800-1935）

发布时间：2019-06-07 16:49

【摘要】：中国银产稀少，秦汉以金为上币，铜为下币，至东汉巨量黄金突然“消失”，宋元两代有所发展的纸币至明代因持续贬值而失败。但社会经济的发展需要便于大额交易及远程携带的货币，，在国际贸易中，受国外影响，中国开始了以银为货币的历程。中国近代白银货币有其显著的外部供给性，这体现在三个方面：一是白银的生产主要在美洲，并受美英资本控制；二是世界白银定价权掌握在伦敦、纽约经纪商手中，并受美英印等国政府影响；三是中国的白银输出入由外商或外国银行控制。由此造成中国银本位制度建立进程缓慢，并且非常脆弱，废两改元后确立的银本位制度仅仅存在了2年半的时间。由于白银货币的外部供给性，近代中国白银购买力与世界白银购买力密切相关，其相关系数（1800-1935年）达0.92。世界银贵（白银购买力上升或银价上涨）时，中国白银外流，中国近代的几次白银外流均发生在银价上涨（或白银购买力上升）超过10%的时期。近代中国总体及大多数年份的白银、贸易双入超的奇特现象即源于白银货币的外部供给性。数据分析显示，19世纪上半叶中国的银钱比价上涨与白银购买力上升密切相关，1801-1845年间两序列相关系数达0.95，属于高度正相关，误差修正项系数为-0.884529，说明两个序列在短期内偏离长期稳定趋势后有很强的回调力量。这一时期中国钱计物价在较小的范围内变动，中国白银购买力的上升是世界白银购买力上升的区域表现，因此19世纪上半叶中国银钱比价上涨的长期变动原因是银贵，而非钱贱。中国古代的赋税制度经历了从人丁向田亩、资产过渡；由劳役、实物地租到货币地租的转变过程。农业社会的实物税是以农民所得为基础计算征收的，并且通过荒政等制度安排调节征收数量。清代以货币税赋为主，但未认识到白银购买力变动对农民所得及税负的影响，也没有相应的制度设计。嘉道年间两次白银购买力的大幅上升，田赋定额不变，加重了农民负担，引发了两次农民起义。清末白银购买力下降，田赋总额增加低于银价变动幅度，农民田赋负担并未加重。
[Abstract]:China's silver production is scarce, Qin and Han dynasties with gold as the upper coin, copper as the lower coin, to the Eastern Han Dynasty, a large amount of gold suddenly "disappeared", Song and Yuan dynasties developed banknotes to the Ming Dynasty due to continued depreciation and failure. However, the development of social economy needs to facilitate large transactions and remote carrying of currency. In international trade, under the influence of foreign countries, China has begun the process of taking silver as the currency. Silver money in modern China has its remarkable external supply, which is reflected in three aspects: first, the production of silver is mainly in America and controlled by the capital of the United States and Britain; Second, the world silver pricing power is in the hands of London and New York brokers, and is influenced by the governments of the United States, Britain, India and other countries. Third, China's silver imports and exports are controlled by foreign or foreign banks. As a result, the process of establishing the silver standard system in China is slow and very fragile. The silver standard system established after the abolition of the two yuan changes has only existed for two and a half years. Due to the external supply of silver money, the purchasing power of silver in modern China is closely related to the purchasing power of silver in the world, and its correlation coefficient (1800-1935) is 0.92. When silver is expensive in the world (silver purchasing power or silver prices rise), Chinese silver outflows, and several silver outflows in modern China all occurred during periods when silver prices rose (or silver purchasing power rose) by more than 10%. The strange phenomenon of silver in modern China and in most years stems from the external supply of silver money. The data analysis shows that the increase of silver specific price in China in the first half of the 19th century is closely related to the increase of silver purchasing power. The correlation coefficient of the two sequences reached 0.95 in 1801 / 1845, which belongs to a highly positive correlation, and the error correction coefficient is-0.884529. It shows that the two sequences have a strong callback force after deviating from the long-term stable trend in the short term. During this period, the price of Chinese money changed in a relatively small range, and the increase in the purchasing power of Chinese silver was the regional performance of the increase in the purchasing power of silver in the world. Therefore, the reason for the long-term change of the increase in the price of Chinese silver in the first half of the 19th century was that silver was expensive. Not cheap money. In ancient China, the tax system experienced the transition from man to mu, assets, and from labor, physical rent to monetary rent. The real tax in agricultural society is calculated on the basis of farmers' income, and the amount of collection is adjusted through institutional arrangements such as desolation. In Qing Dynasty, monetary tax was the main factor, but the influence of silver purchasing power change on farmers' income and tax burden was not realized, and there was no corresponding system design. During the Jiadao year, the purchasing power of silver increased sharply, and the quota of Tian Fu remained unchanged, which increased the burden on farmers and triggered two peasant uprisings. In the late Qing Dynasty, the purchasing power of silver decreased, the total increase of land tax was lower than that of silver price, and the burden of farmers' land tax was not increased.
【学位授予单位】：河北师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.9

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