通胀预期与真实价格之间的关系
发布时间：2019-06-17 16:23
【摘要】：本文通过偏相关分析的统计方法,对通胀预期与真实价格之间的关系进行了数量分析。研究发现,通胀预期与消费价格指数存在相互的正向作用。通胀预期的形成具有短期特征,对未来物价的判断更多地依赖最近时段的环比物价水平,而通胀预期对后期物价指数特别是同比物价指数具有长期影响。以房屋和股票为代表的环比资产价格变动对通胀预期的形成具有正向作用,但通胀预期对后期资产价格走势不存在反作用。
[Abstract]:Through the statistical method of partial correlation analysis, this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the relationship between inflation expectations and real prices. The study found that inflation expectations and consumer price indices have a positive effect on each other. The formation of inflation expectations has short-term characteristics, and the judgment of future prices depends more on the recent month-on-month price levels, while inflation expectations have a long-term impact on the late price index, especially the year-on-year price index. The month-on-month asset price change represented by housing and stocks has a positive effect on the formation of inflation expectations, but inflation expectations have no negative effect on the trend of asset prices in the later period.
【作者单位】： 上海立信会计学院经贸学院;中国人民银行上海总部;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究项目“全球流动性冲击对中国经济的影响与政策选择”(编号10YJC790376) 上海市教委科研创新重点项目(编号:11ZS185),上海市教委重点学科项目(编号:J51702)
【分类号】：F822.5;F726
，
本文编号：2501115
[Abstract]:Through the statistical method of partial correlation analysis, this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the relationship between inflation expectations and real prices. The study found that inflation expectations and consumer price indices have a positive effect on each other. The formation of inflation expectations has short-term characteristics, and the judgment of future prices depends more on the recent month-on-month price levels, while inflation expectations have a long-term impact on the late price index, especially the year-on-year price index. The month-on-month asset price change represented by housing and stocks has a positive effect on the formation of inflation expectations, but inflation expectations have no negative effect on the trend of asset prices in the later period.
【作者单位】： 上海立信会计学院经贸学院;中国人民银行上海总部;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究项目“全球流动性冲击对中国经济的影响与政策选择”(编号10YJC790376) 上海市教委科研创新重点项目(编号:11ZS185),上海市教委重点学科项目(编号:J51702)
【分类号】：F822.5;F726
，
本文编号：2501115
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