基于货币政策效应的经济走势判据的有效性检验——以次贷危机中的美国经济为例

发布时间：2019-06-19 07:28

【摘要】：通过考察各国经济演变的历史可以发现,货币政策的效应可以用来作为判定一国经济是否走出危机或是否即将发生危机的判据。在其他条件不变的情况下,如果一国经济的常规调控措施(如货币政策)失效或效应严重衰减,则该国经济有发生危机的可能或仍未走出危机。本文以美国为例进行的实证研究,结果表明,非金融危机期间,特别是在经济扩张时期,美国货币政策基本有效;在次贷危机爆发的前兆期(2004～2007年),美国货币政策效应严重衰减乃至失效;从次贷危机发生至2009年6月期间,美国经济对美联储所采取的货币政策不敏感,货币政策效应起伏变化,有时还表现为严重的"反效应"。研究认为,2009年6月前后次贷危机"毒素"基本释放完毕,美国经济有走出危机的前兆,但经济体的活力并未得到较好恢复。
[Abstract]:By examining the history of economic evolution in various countries, it can be found that the effect of monetary policy can be used as a criterion to determine whether a country's economy is out of crisis or whether it is about to occur. Under the same other conditions, if the conventional regulatory measures of a country's economy, such as monetary policy, fail or the effects of the country's economy decline seriously, there is a possibility of a crisis in a country's economy or it has not yet emerged from the crisis. Taking the United States as an example, this paper shows that the monetary policy of the United States is basically effective during the non-financial crisis, especially in the period of economic expansion, and that the monetary policy effect of the United States has seriously attenuated or even failed during the precursor period of the subprime mortgage crisis (2004-2007). From the subprime mortgage crisis to June 2009, the U. S. economy was insensitive to the monetary policy adopted by the Federal Reserve, and the effects of monetary policy fluctuated and sometimes showed serious "countereffects." According to the study, the subprime mortgage crisis "toxin" was basically released around June 2009, and the U. S. economy was threatened to emerge from the crisis, but the vitality of the economy has not been well recovered.
【作者单位】：福州大学管理学院;山东大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然基金项目(70973021) 福建省社科基金重点项目(2009A032)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F224;F827.12;F171.2

【参考文献】