基于贝叶斯动态面板数据模型的民营上市企业债务融资决策

发布时间：2019-06-29 13:43

【摘要】：民营上市企业如何克服债务融资难的问题,为债务融资决策寻找依据一直是企业融资领域的重要课题,通过建立存在严格外生变量的贝叶斯动态面板数据随机效应模型,从企业外部宏观金融环境和内部治理两个方面研究债务融资决策的影响因素;利用Gibbs抽样算法进行模拟仿真,得到模型参数的后验估计值。研究结果表明:民营上市企业当期债务融资水平与前一期负债水平、企业成长性、企业规模、企业与政府关系密切度正相关,与外部宏观金融环境、盈利性以及短期偿债能力负相关,这表明企业的负债具有惯性,处于快速成长阶段、规模越大、与政府关系越密切的民营上市企业负债水平越高;外部宏观金融环境较好并且盈利能力、短期偿债能力越强的民营上市企业负债水平越低。
[Abstract]:How to overcome the problem of debt financing and how to find the basis for debt financing decision-making has always been an important topic in the field of enterprise financing. By establishing the stochastic effect model of Bayesian dynamic panel data with strict exogenous variables, this paper studies the influencing factors of debt financing decision from two aspects: external macro-financial environment and internal governance. The Gibbs sampling algorithm is used to simulate the model parameters, and the posterior estimation value of the model parameters is obtained. The results show that the current debt financing level of private listed enterprises is positively correlated with the debt level of the previous period, the growth of enterprises, the size of enterprises, the close relationship between enterprises and the government, and negatively correlated with the external macro-financial environment, profitability and short-term solvency, which indicates that the debt of private listed enterprises is inertia, in the stage of rapid growth, the larger the scale, the higher the debt level of private listed enterprises with closer relationship with the government. The external macro-financial environment is good and profitable, and the stronger the short-term solvency, the lower the debt level of private listed enterprises.
【作者单位】：湖南大学工商管理学院;湖南大学金融与统计学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(71221001);国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171075;71031004) 教育部博士点基金资助项目(20110161110025) 湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(11JJ3090)
【分类号】：F275;F832.51;F224

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