中国对东盟直接投资的母国经济效应研究

发布时间：2019-07-01 12:29

【摘要】：中国与东盟正式展开对话20年以来,特别是2010年中国—东盟自由贸易区建成以后,作为中国—东盟合作“短板”的中国对东盟直接投资迅速发展起来。如今,东盟已成为中国企业海外投资的最大市场。①随着中国对东盟直接投资规模的扩大、投资领域的拓展,由此带来的各种经济效应也逐渐显现,尤其是对国内经济所产生的效应,如经济增长效应、进出口效应以及更深层次的产业结构效应、技术进步效应等都日趋显著。然而,由于中国对东盟直接投资的起步晚、数额小,因此对这一领域的研究相对较少,而关于中国对东盟直接投资对国内的经济效应的研究就更少。正是在这种背景下,本文采用定性分析与实证检验相结合的方法,分别对中国对东盟直接投资在国内经济增长、进出口贸易、产业结构优化以及技术进步方面的效应展开比较深入和全面的剖析。特别是引入技术差距来分析中国对东盟直接投资对国内的技术进步效应：首先,提出三种假设,即技术差距不影响逆向技术外溢、技术差距与逆向技术外溢呈线性关系、技术差距与逆向技术外溢呈非线性关系。其次,在每一个假设条件下构建模型。最后,通过对所有模型进行实证分析,对比拟合度,从而确定最合理、最符合实际的模型,并对分析结果进行解释。在对四方面经济效应分析、检验之后,得出以下结论：中国对东盟直接投资对国内的经济增长有一定的拉动作用,但作用不明显；中国对东盟直接投资促进了双边贸易发展；中国对东盟直接投资推进了国内产业结构的优化升级；由于技术差距的存在在一定程度上抑制了中国对东盟直接投资所产生的逆向技术外溢,因而对国内的技术进步效应不显著。最后,根据研究的结果,为政府、商会和企业提出了相关策略建议：政府在投资活动中应起到政策引导和资金扶持的作用、商会要做好桥梁、纽带的作用、企业要依据自身的情况选择适合的产业和区位进行直接投资,从而进一步发挥中国对东盟直接投资对国内的经济效应。
[Abstract]:Since the formal dialogue between China and ASEAN in the past 20 years, especially after the completion of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area in 2010, China's direct investment in ASEAN, as a "deficiency" of China-ASEAN cooperation, has developed rapidly. Nowadays, ASEAN has become the largest market for overseas investment by Chinese enterprises. 1 with the expansion of the scale of Chinese direct investment in ASEAN and the expansion of investment fields, various economic effects have gradually emerged, especially on the domestic economy, such as economic growth effect, import and export effect, deeper industrial structure effect, technological progress effect and so on. However, due to the late start and small amount of Chinese direct investment in ASEAN, there are relatively few studies in this field, and even less on the domestic economic effects of Chinese direct investment in ASEAN. It is in this context that this paper uses the method of qualitative analysis and empirical test to analyze the effects of China's direct investment in ASEAN on domestic economic growth, import and export trade, industrial structure optimization and technological progress. In particular, the technology gap is introduced to analyze the effect of Chinese direct investment in ASEAN on domestic technological progress. Firstly, three assumptions are put forward, that is, the technology gap does not affect the reverse technology spillover, the technology gap and reverse technology spillover are linear, and the technology gap and reverse technology spillover are nonlinear. Secondly, the model is built under each assumption. Finally, through the empirical analysis of all the models, the degree of analogy is determined, and the most reasonable and realistic model is determined, and the results of the analysis are explained. After analyzing the economic effects of four aspects, this paper draws the following conclusions: China's direct investment in ASEAN has a certain pulling effect on domestic economic growth, but its effect is not obvious; China's direct investment in ASEAN has promoted the development of bilateral trade; China's direct investment in ASEAN has promoted the optimization and upgrading of domestic industrial structure; To a certain extent, the existence of technology gap has restrained the reverse technology spillover caused by China's direct investment in ASEAN, so the effect on domestic technological progress is not significant. Finally, according to the results of the study, this paper puts forward some relevant strategic suggestions for the government, chamber of commerce and enterprises: the government should play the role of policy guidance and financial support in the investment activities, the chamber of commerce should do a good job as a bridge and link, and enterprises should choose the appropriate industry and location for direct investment according to their own situation, so as to further give full play to the domestic economic effect of China's direct investment in ASEAN.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F752.7;F832.6

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