我国外汇储备增长及其对货币政策的影响研究

发布时间：2019-07-08 17:41

【摘要】：自1994年我国外汇体制改革以来，我国外汇储备在国际收支双顺差的推动下快速增长，截止2011年底，我国外汇储备余额高达31811.48亿美元。这一方面，提高了我国调节国际收支、干预市场及对外支付的能力；另一方面，外汇储备的增长给我国经济发展带来了许多消极影响：外汇储备增长迫使央行增加基础货币的投放，使得货币供给量迅速扩张，进而对货币供给结构、货币政策的时滞以及货币供给的内生性产生影响，而且影响到央行的法定存款准备金率和公开市场操作等货币政策工具的有效性，给央行实施货币政策带来了一定的难度。因此，研究如何确保外汇储备规模适度，实现对外汇储备的科学调控以及分析外汇储备变动对货币政策有效性的影响，从而提高货币政策效果具有重要的意义。本文首先在参考相关理论的基础上，阐释了外汇储备与货币政策的内在联系及影响机理，然后从外汇储备增长的状况入手，回顾了外汇体制改革以来我国外汇储备阶段性增长的状况，通过一些指标的计算得出我国外汇储备超出适度规模，并且分析得出了导致我国外汇储备持续增长的一些原因：中国经济的快速发展，多年来国际收支双顺差的推动，人民币升值预期以及外汇体制因素。之后是文章的重点部分，从三个方面分析了外汇储备增长对货币政策产生的具体影响，第一，外汇储备对货币政策中介目标（货币供给）的影响，第二，影响货币政策工具如法定存款准备金率和公开市场操作等的有效性，第三，对货币政策最终目标的影响，加大了通胀压力，导致汇率政策和利率政策的冲突。因此，外汇储备持续增长成了影响我国货币政策效果的一个主要的因素。最后，基于以上分析，，提出了相应的建议和措施来改善这种状况，主要有建立外汇平准基金，切断外汇储备与货币供给的联系；放宽汇率波动幅度，协调汇率政策和货币政策的关系；改革完善现行的外汇管理体制，分流外汇储备；创新货币政策工具，扩大对冲操作的空间。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of China's foreign exchange system in 1994, China's foreign exchange reserves have increased rapidly under the impetus of a double balance of payments surplus. By the end of 2011, the balance of China's foreign exchange reserves was as high as 3.181148 trillion US dollars. On the one hand, it improves the ability of our country to adjust the balance of payments, interfere with the market and pay for it. On the other hand, the growth of foreign exchange reserves has brought many negative effects to the economic development of our country: the growth of foreign exchange reserves forces the central bank to increase the investment of basic currency, which makes the money supply expand rapidly, which in turn has an impact on the structure of money supply, the time lag of monetary policy and the endogeny of money supply, and also affects the effectiveness of monetary policy instruments such as Statutory deposit reserve ratio and open market operation of the central bank. It brings some difficulty to the central bank in implementing monetary policy. Therefore, it is of great significance to study how to ensure the appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserves, to realize the scientific regulation and control of foreign exchange reserves and to analyze the influence of foreign exchange reserve changes on the effectiveness of monetary policy, so as to improve the effect of monetary policy. First of all, on the basis of referring to the relevant theories, this paper explains the internal relationship and influence mechanism between foreign exchange reserves and monetary policy, then starts with the growth of foreign exchange reserves, reviews the situation of phased growth of foreign exchange reserves in China since the reform of foreign exchange system, and concludes that China's foreign exchange reserves exceed the appropriate scale through the calculation of some indicators. Some reasons for the sustained growth of China's foreign exchange reserves are obtained: the rapid development of China's economy, the promotion of the double surplus of the balance of payments over the years, the expectation of RMB appreciation and the factors of foreign exchange system. Then is the key part of the article, from three aspects to analyze the specific impact of foreign exchange reserve growth on monetary policy, first, the impact of foreign exchange reserves on monetary policy intermediary objectives (money supply), second, affecting the effectiveness of monetary policy tools such as Statutory deposit reserve ratio and open market operations, third, the impact on the ultimate goal of monetary policy, increasing inflationary pressure. Lead to the conflict between exchange rate policy and interest rate policy. Therefore, the sustained growth of foreign exchange reserves has become a major factor affecting the effect of monetary policy in China. Finally, based on the above analysis, the corresponding suggestions and measures are put forward to improve this situation, such as the establishment of foreign exchange leveling fund, cutting off the relationship between foreign exchange reserves and money supply, relaxing the fluctuation range of exchange rate, coordinating the relationship between exchange rate policy and monetary policy, reforming and perfecting the current foreign exchange management system, diverting foreign exchange reserves, innovating monetary policy tools and expanding the space for hedge operation.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.0

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