宏观调控下金融危机的金融及贸易渠道动态传染性解读
发布时间：2019-07-14 10:32
【摘要】：文章用金融危机四阶段周期理论剖析金融危机的传染机制。通过构造金融渠道危机传染模型及贸易渠道危机传染模型,对20国集团国家金融危机隐蔽期、危机爆发期、危机深化期和危机恢复期的数据进行检验,得出结论:金融渠道具有显著地周期性危机传染特质;贸易渠道具有次显著地周期性危机传染特质,传染性变化与金融危机向实体经济渗透同步;贸易渠道传染性周期演进滞后于金融渠道;金融危机恢复期宏观经济变量显著性增强,表明调节宏观经济政策可以降低金融危机的传染性。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the contagion mechanism of financial crisis with the theory of four-stage cycle of financial crisis. By constructing the financial channel crisis contagion model and the trade channel crisis contagion model, this paper tests the data of the hidden period of the financial crisis, the crisis outbreak period, the crisis deepening period and the crisis recovery period in the Group of 20 countries, and draws the conclusion that the financial channel has the remarkable cyclical crisis contagion characteristic, the trade channel has the sub-significant periodic crisis contagion characteristic, the infectious change synchronizes with the financial crisis infiltrates into the real economy; The evolution of infectious cycle of trade channel lags behind that of financial channel, and the macroeconomic variables increase significantly during the recovery period of financial crisis, which indicates that adjusting macroeconomic policy can reduce the contagion of financial crisis.
【作者单位】： 西安交通大学经济与金融学院;中国人民银行白银市中心支行;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目(09AZD020)
【分类号】：F831.59;F746;F224
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the contagion mechanism of financial crisis with the theory of four-stage cycle of financial crisis. By constructing the financial channel crisis contagion model and the trade channel crisis contagion model, this paper tests the data of the hidden period of the financial crisis, the crisis outbreak period, the crisis deepening period and the crisis recovery period in the Group of 20 countries, and draws the conclusion that the financial channel has the remarkable cyclical crisis contagion characteristic, the trade channel has the sub-significant periodic crisis contagion characteristic, the infectious change synchronizes with the financial crisis infiltrates into the real economy; The evolution of infectious cycle of trade channel lags behind that of financial channel, and the macroeconomic variables increase significantly during the recovery period of financial crisis, which indicates that adjusting macroeconomic policy can reduce the contagion of financial crisis.
【作者单位】： 西安交通大学经济与金融学院;中国人民银行白银市中心支行;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目(09AZD020)
【分类号】：F831.59;F746;F224
【共引文献】
相关期刊论文 前5条
1 丁骋骋;;论财政政策影响经常账户的三个微观机制[J];经济理论与经济管理;2006年11期
2 王爱俭;沈庆R，
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