基于实物期权方法对中国移动通信产业投资决策分析

发布时间：2018-02-10 01:16

本文关键词： 信息技术网络实物期权对抗性网络效应互补性网络效应　出处：《华中师范大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前的社会是一个信息化的社会,而作为信息技术的核心产业-通信产业,已成为中国乃至全世界经济发展的最有核心竞争力的产业之一。近年来,中国移动通信产业中的信息技术有了飞速、创新式的发展。同时,中国移动信息技术网络中的对抗性网络效应和互补性网络效应日显突出。这对网络信息技术方面的项目投资分析带来了更大的不确定性。这些不确定性使得传统的分析方法受到极大的局限性。为此,网络信息技术投资的理论研究者们思考使用实物期权的方法解决问题。本文利用实物期权的方法分析中国移动信息技术网络中不确定环境下的投资分析问题。从中国移动信息技术网络的代理商和运营商两个角度,用跳跃扩散过程模拟项目收益和成本变化的不确定性,并用实物期权的思想,得到投资项目的价值和相关的延期期权的价值。通过比较分析投资项目的价值和传统方法计算得到的项目的净现值,我们得到两个主要结论：第一,当用传统方法计算得到的项目的净现值大于零时,若项目价值大于等于净现值,则代理商和运营商应该选择等待投资；若没有时间等待,则应该选择即刻投资,获得此时正的净现值。第二,当用传统方法计算得到的项目的净现值小于等于零时,而若项目价值大于零,则代理商和运营商应该等待投资；若等待不可能,应该选择放弃,不投资。
[Abstract]:The current society is an information society, and as the core industry of information technology, communication industry has become one of the most competitive industries in the economic development of China and the world. The information technology in China's mobile communication industry has developed rapidly and innovatively. At the same time, The antagonistic network effect and complementary network effect in China Mobile Information Technology Network are becoming more and more prominent. This brings more uncertainty to the project investment analysis of network information technology. These uncertainties make the tradition more uncertain. Is greatly limited. For this reason, Network information technology investment theory researchers think about the use of real options to solve the problem. In this paper, the real option method is used to analyze the investment analysis in the uncertain environment of China Mobile Information Technology Network. From the perspective of agents and operators of China Mobile Information Technology Network, Using jump diffusion process to simulate the uncertainty of the change of project income and cost, and using the idea of real option, We get the value of the investment project and the value of the relevant extension options. By comparing the value of the investment project with the net present value of the project calculated by the traditional method, we get two main conclusions: first, When the net present value of the project calculated by the traditional method is greater than 00:00, if the project value is greater than or equal to the net present value, agents and operators should choose to wait for investment; if there is no time to wait, they should choose to invest immediately. Get a positive NPV at this time. Second, when the NPV of the project calculated by the traditional method is less than or equal to 00:00, and if the project value is greater than zero, agents and operators should wait for investment; if waiting is impossible, they should choose to give up. No investment.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F632.3

【共引文献】