基于灰色线性组合模型的农产品物流需求预测

发布时间：2017-12-31 08:37

本文关键词：基于灰色线性组合模型的农产品物流需求预测　出处：《北京交通大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：以北京市农产品物流需求为研究对象,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型为基本方法,使用Matlab软件,借助蚁群算法求出了单个模型的权数,构建出灰色线性组合模型,对"十三五"时期北京市农产品的物流需求进行预测。研究发现:北京市农产品物流需求在"十三五"期间稳定增加。因此,要平衡"十三五"期间北京市农产品物流的供给与需求,应增加农产品物流的供给,即完善农产品物流基础设施建设、大力支持农产品物流企业的发展和政府加强宏观调控。预测的结果表明:灰色线性组合模型的拟合度较好,比其他传统方法有更高的预测精度。
[Abstract]:Taking the logistics demand of agricultural products in Beijing as the research object, the weight of a single model is calculated by using the Matlab software and ant colony algorithm, using the grey GM1 / 1) model as the basic method. This paper constructs a grey linear combination model to forecast the logistics demand of agricultural products in Beijing during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The study found that the logistics demand of Beijing agricultural products increased steadily during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. In order to balance the supply and demand of agricultural products logistics in Beijing during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, we should increase the supply of agricultural products logistics, that is, improve the infrastructure construction of agricultural products logistics. The forecast results show that the grey linear combination model has better fitting degree and higher prediction precision than other traditional methods.
【作者单位】：首都经济贸易大学工商管理学院;
【分类号】：F326.6
【正文快照】： 一、引言农产品包括粮食、油料、蔬菜、肉蛋奶、水产品等种类,是居民生活必需品,农产品物流需求的变动直接关系到农民和消费者的利益。随着北京国际化城市建设进程的加快和城镇居民消费水平的提高,农产品消费数量不断增长,现实的和潜在的农产品物流需求也会随之增加。农产品物

【相似文献】