货改条件下铁路快捷货运需求预测及体系框架构建

发布时间：2018-01-02 07:27

本文关键词：货改条件下铁路快捷货运需求预测及体系框架构建　出处：《西南交通大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国传统的铁路货物运输生产组织工作是以运输能力利用为核心,而非以客户服务为中心,是一种生产型而不是营销型的货运组织形式。这种生产管理模式在铁路运输组织过程中有许多弊端,在当今运输市场竞争异常激烈的情况下,铁路部门若不改变现状,就将会被市场所淘汰。铁路企业针对以上困境,决定从根本上进行一场体制的改革和观念的转变,在铁路货运改革背景下,对铁路货运发展模式提出了新的要求。首先,本文通过分析我国货运市场环境和传统铁路快捷货运产品的不足,指出我国铁路在货运改革背景下发展快捷货运的必要性和可行性。结合铁路货运改革的具体要求和内容,并运用现代物流理念对快捷货运需求市场进行划分。其次,通过构建基于“四阶段法”的快捷货运需求预测模型来对我国快捷货运宏观需求环境进行预测分析,求得我国快捷货运需求总量增长趋势、分布特征,然后,分别研究了铁路快捷货运各指标因素及产品开发对快捷货运需求分担率的影响程度,从定量分析的角度证明了发展铁路快捷货运的必要性,同时也验证了“四阶段法”思想在进行铁路快捷货运需求预测过程中的可行性,为研究铁路快捷货运需求预测提供了一个具有实践意义的方向。最后,根据铁路货运改革中核心思想及需求预测结果,从生产组织、产品开发及营销策略三个层面对铁路快捷货运体系框架进行构建,为铁路系统今后在开展快捷货运方面提供一定决策建议及发展思路。
[Abstract]:China's traditional railway freight transport production organization work is based on the utilization of transport capacity, not on customer service as the center. This mode of production and management has many disadvantages in the process of railway transportation organization. If the railway sector does not change the status quo, it will be eliminated by the market. In view of the above difficulties, railway enterprises have decided to carry out a fundamental reform of the system and the change of concept, under the background of the reform of railway freight transport. The development mode of railway freight transport has put forward new requirements. First of all, this paper analyzes the market environment of freight transport in China and the shortcomings of traditional railway express freight transport products. This paper points out the necessity and feasibility of developing express freight transportation in the context of freight transport reform in China, and combines with the specific requirements and contents of railway freight transport reform. And use the modern logistics concept to divide the express freight transport demand market. Secondly, through the construction of the "four-stage" express freight demand forecasting model to forecast and analyze the macro demand environment of China's express freight transport. To find out the growth trend and distribution characteristics of the total demand for express freight transport in China. Then, the factors of each index and the degree of influence of product development on the demand sharing rate of express freight transport are studied respectively. The necessity of developing railway express freight is proved from the angle of quantitative analysis, and the feasibility of "four-stage method" in forecasting the demand of railway express freight is also verified. It provides a practical direction for the research of railway express freight demand prediction. Finally, according to the core idea of railway freight transport reform and demand forecasting results, from the production organization. The framework of railway express freight transport system is constructed from three aspects of product development and marketing strategy, which provides some decision suggestions and development ideas for railway system in developing express freight transport in the future.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U294.13

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