低碳经济视角下农村物流系统动力学建模及优化研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 07:29

本文关键词：低碳经济视角下农村物流系统动力学建模及优化研究　出处：《江苏大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在当前主推低碳经济的潮流下,高能耗、高排放、低效率的传统农村物流已经成为制约农村经济可持续性发展的枷锁。而为了促进农村经济和环境的协调发展以实现低碳经济,推动农村物流的产业升级和低碳转型成为打开枷锁的重要一步。以促进我国农村物流由传统向现代化、低碳化转型为研究目的,构建低碳经济视角下的农村物流系统动力学模型,并进行优化分析和政策模拟为农村物流的低碳化提供对策建议。主要包括以下内容:在相关理论和文献研究的基础上,明确了低碳经济视角下农村物流的定义、主要功能、基础要素和构成。并从低碳经济视角出发将农村物流系统分为城乡商贸供需、物流碳排放和农村物流经济三个子系统,对其相互之间的关系进行分析。其次运用系统动力学的方法,绘制因果回路图并理清主要的反馈回路,以此构建低碳经济视角下农村物流的SD流图。以江苏省农村物流为例对模型中的参数和变量赋值和输入相应函数后,进行了模型的有效性与真实性检验。最后通过已检验的模型做了以下三部分的研究:一是预测模型中的主要变量,二是通过参数调整从环保投入、能源技术、货物运输方式、农产品加工、物流投资和引入碳税等六个方面对模型进行优化分析,三是根据模型的优化分析以及江苏省农村的实际情况,提出了组合政策和碳税政策并进行评价分析。分析结果表明,江苏农村的经济正处于高速发展期,农村物流的供需矛盾也随之愈发激烈,而农村物流的碳排放量也随之增多;通过优化分析发现,环保投入、能源技术、农村物流投资、农产品加工、货物运输方式和碳税都是促进农村物流向低碳化转型的有效影响因素;通过分析碳生产率和脱钩指数可知,和未采用政策的情况相比,组合政策的实施可以有效改变农村物流的现状,而碳税政策虽然比组合政策有更好的效果,但我国现有的低碳技术和治理效率还未达到实施条件,需要通过政府提供低碳补贴和碳税返还使物流业的收益大于支出才能实现理想效果。
[Abstract]:In the current trend of low carbon economy, high energy consumption, high emissions. Inefficient traditional rural logistics has become a constraint on the sustainable development of rural economy, and in order to promote the coordinated development of rural economy and the environment to achieve low-carbon economy. To promote the upgrading of rural logistics industry and low-carbon transformation has become an important step to open the shackles in order to promote the transformation of rural logistics from traditional to modern low-carbon for the purpose of research. Constructing the dynamic model of rural logistics system from the perspective of low-carbon economy. And carry on the optimization analysis and policy simulation to provide the countermeasure suggestion for the low carbonization of the rural logistics. Mainly includes the following contents: on the basis of the related theory and the literature research, has clarified the definition of the rural logistics under the low carbon economy angle of view. From the perspective of low-carbon economy, the rural logistics system is divided into three subsystems: supply and demand of urban and rural commerce, carbon emissions of logistics and rural logistics economy. The relationship between them is analyzed. Secondly, by using the method of system dynamics, the causal loop diagram is drawn and the main feedback loop is sorted out. Taking rural logistics in Jiangsu Province as an example, the parameters and variables in the model are assigned and input the corresponding functions. The validity and authenticity of the model are tested. Finally, the following three parts are studied through the tested model: one is the main variables in the prediction model, the other is to adjust the parameters from the environmental protection input, energy technology. The model is optimized from six aspects, such as the mode of transportation of goods, the processing of agricultural products, the investment of logistics and the introduction of carbon tax. The third part is based on the optimization analysis of the model and the actual situation of rural areas in Jiangsu Province. The combination policy and carbon tax policy are put forward and evaluated and analyzed. The results show that the rural economy in Jiangsu is in a period of rapid development, and the contradiction between supply and demand of rural logistics becomes more and more fierce. The carbon emissions of rural logistics also increased; Through optimization analysis, it is found that environmental protection input, energy technology, rural logistics investment, agricultural products processing, freight transportation mode and carbon tax are the effective factors to promote the transition from rural logistics to low carbonization. Through the analysis of carbon productivity and decoupling index, we can know that the implementation of portfolio policy can effectively change the current situation of rural logistics, and carbon tax policy has better effect than portfolio policy. However, the existing low-carbon technology and governance efficiency in our country has not reached the implementation conditions, so it is necessary for the government to provide low-carbon subsidies and carbon tax return so that the revenue of the logistics industry exceeds the expenditure in order to achieve the ideal effect.
【学位授予单位】：江苏大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F326.6;F259.2

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