废旧家电回收量预测研究

发布时间：2018-01-14 12:38

本文关键词：废旧家电回收量预测研究　出处：《西南交通大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来我国家用电器的社会保有量不断增长,废旧家电的数量也越来越多。与国外很多发达国家相比,我国废旧家电回收工作的研究起步较晚,相关法律法规和理论研究都不完善。而诸如废旧家电回收网络规划、制定合适的激励机制之类的研究都需要以准确的废旧家电回收量为基础。但目前大多数学者都将目光集中在家电销售量预测这类正向物流的领域,关于逆向物流预测方面的研究相对较少,因此对废旧家电回收量预测的研究显得十分迫切、极为重要。本文在以往文献资料的基础上,针对废旧家电回收活动的特点,分析影响回收量的主要因素。以电视机为例,建立废旧家电回收量仿真模型,最后运用粗糙集理论构建废旧家电回收量预测模型,并利用仿真数据对预测模型进行检验。本文主要做了以下3项工作：(1)在以往文献及其他相关资料的基础上,全面分析废旧家电产生、回收流程,从产品、消费者、社会环境三个方面对影响废旧家电回收量的主要影响因素进行分类描述,并对这些因素的作用机理进行研究。(2)对家电产品销售、使用、回收的整个过程进行分析,以电视机为例,在以往实证研究的基础上,根据废旧家电产生的机理构建废旧家电回收量仿真模型。(3)针对废旧家电回收量预测问题的随机性和复杂性,利用粗糙集理论对影响因素进行约简,获取家电回收量与历史销售量等影响因素之间的规律,提取相关规则,对家电回收量进行预测。并用仿真模型所获得的仿真数据对预测模型的预测效果进行检验。本文对废旧家电回收量的过程进行了定性研究,从不同角度总结了废旧家电回收量影响因素。然后以电视机为例构建回收量仿真模型,并对对仿真结果进行了一定的分析。最后构建粗糙集预测模型,运用仿真模型对模型的预测精度进行检验,检验结果说明了粗糙集预测模型在废旧家电回收量预测领域的有效性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's household appliances inventory continues to increase, the number of waste household appliances is also increasing. Compared with the developed countries, recycling waste household appliances in China started late on, the relevant laws and regulations and the theory is not perfect. Such as recycling waste household appliances such as network planning, study and formulate appropriate incentive mechanism the need to waste household appliance accurately for the foundation. But most scholars focused on home appliance sales forecast of this kind of forward logistics, reverse logistics on the prediction research of less, so it is very urgent to study the prediction of the amount of waste household appliance, is very important. Based on the past literature, according to the characteristics of waste home appliances recycling activities, analysis of main factors influencing the recovery rate. The case of TV set, establishment of waste home appliances recycling quantity The simulation model, finally using prediction model of waste household appliance construction for rough set theory, and test the prediction model by the simulation data. This paper mainly do the following 3 tasks: (1) based on the previous literature and other relevant information, a comprehensive analysis of household appliances, recycling process, from the product, the consumer. The classification described three aspects of the social environment mainly affects the quantity of waste household appliance factors, and research the action mechanism of these factors. (2) the use of home appliances sales, analyzes the whole process of recovery, with television as an example, based on the previous empirical research, according to the mechanism of the waste household appliance the construction of recycling waste household appliances simulation model. (3) randomness and complexity for waste household appliances recycling forecast problems, influencing factors are simplified based on rough set theory, for home appliance recycling Among the factors and the influence law of sales history, extraction rules to predict the amount of home appliance recycling test and prediction effect. The simulation data obtained by the simulation model of the prediction model. The process of waste home appliances recycling capacity of qualitative research, from different angles, and summarizes the influencing factors of the amount of waste household appliance then the television for example to build recycling quantity simulation model, and the simulation results are analyzed. Finally the prediction model is constructed using rough set, the prediction accuracy of the model simulation model test, test results show that the prediction model is effective in the field of waste home appliances recycling amount of rough set.

【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F713.2

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