低碳经济下物流业节能减排目标预测研究

发布时间：2018-01-18 02:31

本文关键词：低碳经济下物流业节能减排目标预测研究　出处：《华东交通大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：物流业是连接国民经济生产与消费的纽带，所以物流业也被形象称作是经济社会的输血管‖。虽然物流业在国民经济中占据支柱产业的地位，但不容忽视的是物流业也是高能源消耗、温室气体排放的主要来源。为发展低碳经济，减轻雾霾污染和减少温室气体排放，，物流业节能减排的工作刻不容缓，首先构造超越对数函数模型对物流能源利用效率和结构现状进行分析；并从能源消耗角度测算了2004-2012年省域物流业的碳足迹，根据测算结果并参考政府节能减排的工作文件，提出我国不同省域物流业在十二五‖、十三五‖期间的碳强度和能耗强度目标规划值，并引入灰色预测模型进行分析。结果表明：1.2002年开始，我国物流能源利用效率在显著提高，尤以天然气能源投入的贡献最大，电力、天然气为代表的清洁能源可以有效替代石油和煤炭，并且天然气、电力等能源技术进步速度要快于石油、煤炭，未来物流业高碳排放能源将被清洁能源逐步替代；2.我国物流碳足迹的排放总量一直呈现上升趋势，西北省份如宁夏、内蒙古等涨幅最快，上海、广东等沿海省份增速放缓，从物流碳足迹规模角度可分为四个层次；3.根据目前物流业节能减排的现状，预测结果显示十二五‖期间我国未能完成物流碳足迹动态节能减排目标，但在十三五‖期间可以完成，全国一半省份可以完成研究期内物流碳足迹节能减排双强度‖目标，并且大部分省市的双强度‖值呈下降趋势。
[Abstract]:Logistics industry is the link between the national economy production and consumption, so the logistics industry is also referred to as the economic and social blood vessel, although the logistics industry occupies the position of the pillar industry in the national economy. But the logistics industry is also a high energy consumption, the main source of greenhouse gas emissions. In order to develop a low-carbon economy, reduce haze pollution and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the logistics industry energy conservation and emission reduction work is urgent. Firstly, a transcendental logarithmic function model is constructed to analyze the current situation of logistics energy utilization efficiency and structure. And from the perspective of energy consumption, the paper calculates the carbon footprint of provincial logistics industry from 2004 to 2012, according to the calculation results and referring to the working document of government energy saving and emission reduction. The target planning values of carbon intensity and energy intensity in different provinces of China are put forward. The results show that: 1. Since 2002, the efficiency of logistics energy utilization in China has been significantly improved, especially the contribution of natural gas energy input, electric power. Natural gas as the representative of clean energy can effectively replace oil and coal, and natural gas, electricity and other energy technology progress faster than oil and coal. In the future, high carbon emission energy in logistics industry will be replaced by clean energy. 2. The total emission of logistics carbon footprint in China has been on the rise, northwest provinces such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other fastest growth, Shanghai, Guangdong and other coastal provinces slow growth. From the perspective of logistics carbon footprint scale, it can be divided into four levels; 3.According to the current situation of energy saving and emission reduction in logistics industry, the forecast results show that China failed to complete the dynamic energy saving and emission reduction target of logistics carbon footprint during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, but it can be completed during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Half of the provinces in China can fulfill the target of carbon footprint energy saving and emission reduction during the research period and the value of double intensity is decreasing in most provinces and cities.
【学位授予单位】：华东交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F259.2;F205

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