基于PCA-GA-SVM的蚌埠市物流需求预测研究

发布时间：2018-03-11 09:52

本文选题：区域物流　切入点：遗传算法　出处：《安徽理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：伴随着供给侧结构性改革进入攻坚阶段,物流企业须提升自身的实力才能适应时代发展。政府部门及时有效的掌握物流需求发展趋势,分析各种因素对物流供给的影响程度,将有利于优化与完善蚌埠市物流服务体系。对未来蚌埠市物流需求量以及物流发展态势进行预测是合理构建现代物流体系的重要依据,使蚌埠市物流供给和物流需求相匹配。也只有结合物流需求量以及全市总体空间结构对物流设施实行系统,科学的规划,才能够实现降本增效的目标。因此,本文建立了 PCA-GA-SVM模型拟合蚌埠市物流量,为政府和企业提供一种行之有效的方法。本文在阅读大量有关文献后,总结当前物流研究的发展现状;首先,说明了物流需求的内涵与特点,阐述了物流需求预测步骤;其次,以蚌埠市发展现状为背景,分析了物流需求影响因素,并通过灰色关联法进行筛选,构建了较完善的指标体系;再次,本文通过建立PAC-GA-SVM模型表征蚌埠市物流量,并与对比模型进行对比,结果表明,此模型的进度较好,为蚌埠市物流需求量预测提供了新途径。本文系统的解析了蚌埠市物流需求的影响因素,并构建了比较合理的指标体系,通过预测模型对蚌埠市公路货运发送量进行了较准确的预测,为政府部门合理利用与配置物流市场资源提供可靠依据,为政府制定物流政策时提供依据,为企业策划物流产品销售方案时提供指导。
[Abstract]:With the supply-side structural reform entering the critical stage, logistics enterprises must enhance their own strength to adapt to the development of the times. Government departments grasp the development trend of logistics demand in a timely and effective manner, and analyze the influence of various factors on logistics supply. It will be beneficial to optimize and perfect the logistics service system of Bengbu. Forecasting the logistics demand and logistics development situation in Bengbu in the future is the important basis for the rational construction of modern logistics system. In order to make Bengbu logistics supply and logistics demand match. Only combining logistics demand and the overall spatial structure of the whole city to carry out systematic and scientific planning, can we achieve the goal of reducing cost and increasing efficiency. In this paper, the PCA-GA-SVM model is established to fit the material flow of Bengbu, which provides an effective method for the government and enterprises. After reading a lot of relevant documents, this paper summarizes the current situation of logistics research. The connotation and characteristics of logistics demand are explained, and the forecasting steps of logistics demand are expounded. Secondly, based on the development situation of Bengbu, the influencing factors of logistics demand are analyzed and screened by grey correlation method. Thirdly, this paper establishes a PAC-GA-SVM model to characterize the logistics of Bengbu, and compares it with the contrast model. The results show that the progress of the model is good. It provides a new way for forecasting logistics demand in Bengbu. This paper systematically analyzes the influencing factors of logistics demand in Bengbu, and constructs a more reasonable index system. Based on the prediction model, this paper makes a more accurate forecast on the quantity of road freight transport in Bengbu, which provides a reliable basis for the rational utilization and allocation of logistics market resources by government departments, and provides a basis for the government to formulate logistics policies. Provide guidance to enterprises when planning logistics product sales plan.
【学位授予单位】：安徽理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F259.27

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