JH公司叉车订单交付优化研究

发布时间：2018-03-23 13:42

本文选题：订单交付　切入点：销售预测模型　出处：《东华大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着中国物流行业的快速发展,作为一种物流设备的叉车也呈现出良好的发展势头。越来越多的进口叉车品牌进入中国,与国内叉车生产行业展开竞争。JH公司以某企业全球战略合作供应商的身份进入中国叉车行业,以良好的产品质量和先进的营销模式迅速打开市场,排名跃居到进口叉车中国区前两名。不过,市场发展瞬息万变,客户要求不断提高,企业面对这些变化也需要应时而变,及时进行相应的战略调整,其中,准确、及时的订单交付能力是叉车行业竞争中取得优势的重要因素之一,历来备受该行业企业管理层的重视。本文以JH公司的订单交付为研究对象,以缩短交货周期为目的,提升客户的满意度和公司的竞争力。JH公司是一家销售型企业,无采购和产品设计权,因此对订单交付的研究只能从销售订单预测的精准性和订单管理流程优化两方面进行,并配套相应的管理措施。销售订单预测精准性体现在可根据精确预测的数据,先行向工厂下单生产,客户签订合同后免去等待生产时间直接发货。订单管理流程优化是企业员工实际操作过程的优化,好的模式能够缩短每个环节的操作时间,提高工作效率。本文结合JH公司在订单管理方面的现状,重点分析目前JH公司的销售订单预测方法和订单管理具体流程,指出其在销售订单预测和订单管理流程方面存在的问题。在查阅国内外相关领域的理论方法的基础上,分别利用移动平均法和指数平滑法进行JH公司叉车销售订单预测,并对其进行检验,最后证明基于指数平滑法建立的模型能够有效地对JH公司的叉车进行预测,大大提高了预测的精度,既能及时满足客户需求又能防止库存积压,提高客户的满意度。然后,结合现有的订单管理流程,利用鱼骨图法找出流程中存在的不足,深入分析并挖掘出根本原因;运用ECRS法减少没有价值环节、合并重复环节、对保留部分流程进行了重排和简化,让流程运转更加顺畅,提高业务处理效率和信息传递速度;结合具体某个订单,检验了流程优化的有效性。为保证上述改进的顺利实施,同时为JH公司在管理上提出有效的方案建议。随着经济全球化发展的趋势和行业竞争的不断加剧,叉车企业如何提高订单交付方面的能力,及时、快速地满足客户需求,是叉车企业在竞争中取得优势的关键。本文在JH公司订单精确预测和订单流程优化等方面的研究可为叉车行业提供一些启示。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's logistics industry, forklift trucks, as a kind of logistics equipment, are also showing good development momentum. More and more imported forklift brands enter China. To compete with the domestic forklift manufacturing industry. JH entered the forklift industry in China as a supplier of global strategic cooperation, opening the market quickly with good product quality and advanced marketing model. However, the market is developing rapidly and the customer requirements are constantly improving. In the face of these changes, enterprises also need to make timely strategic adjustments, among which, they are accurate. The ability of timely order delivery is one of the important factors to gain advantages in the competition of forklift truck industry, and has always been attached great importance by the management of the forklift industry. In this paper, the order delivery of JH Company is taken as the research object, and the purpose of this paper is to shorten the delivery period. Improving customer satisfaction and Competitiveness. JH is a sales company with no right to purchase and product design. Therefore, the research on order delivery can only be carried out from two aspects: the accuracy of sales order prediction and the optimization of order management process. And the corresponding management measures. The accuracy of sales order prediction can be reflected in according to the accurate forecast data, first of all to the factory order production, The order management process optimization is the optimization of the actual operation process of the enterprise staff, the good model can shorten the operation time of each link. Based on the current situation of JH company in order management, this paper mainly analyzes the current JH company's sales order forecasting method and order management process. This paper points out the problems existing in the forecasting of sales order and the flow of order management. On the basis of consulting the theories and methods of related fields at home and abroad, the paper makes use of moving average method and exponential smoothing method to forecast the forklift truck sales order of JH Company, respectively. Finally, it is proved that the model based on exponential smoothing method can effectively predict the forklift truck of JH Company, which greatly improves the accuracy of the prediction, and can not only meet the customer's demand in time but also prevent the inventory backlog. Improve customer satisfaction. Then, combined with the existing order management process, using the fish bone chart method to find out the shortcomings of the process, in-depth analysis and excavation of the root cause; use of ECRS method to reduce the value of links, merge duplicate links, It rearranges and simplifies the retained part of the process, makes the process run more smoothly, improves the efficiency of business processing and the speed of information transmission, and tests the effectiveness of the process optimization by combining a specific order. In order to ensure the smooth implementation of the above improvements, With the trend of economic globalization and the increasing competition in the industry, how to improve the ability of order delivery in forklift truck enterprises, in order to meet the needs of customers in a timely and fast manner, It is the key for forklift enterprises to gain advantages in the competition. The research of JH company in the aspects of order precision prediction and order process optimization can provide some enlightenment for forklift industry.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F416.4;F274

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