云南省鲜切花航空运价波动的假日效应分析及对策研究

发布时间：2018-04-08 19:08

本文选题：航空运价　切入点：假日效应　出处：《昆明理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：云南省拥有独特的自然条件,在政府支持下,花卉产业快速发展,其中鲜切花产量连续二十三年全国第一,占国内市场份额的百分之七十五以上,是全国乃至亚洲最大的鲜切花生产营销中心。尽管云南省鲜切花产业已取得了很好的成绩,但产业自身还存在许多困难,其中最为突出的问题在于鲜切花物流的不通畅:汽车运输和火车运输的流通速度慢,且缺乏先进的物流设施设备,其中采后处理技术、保鲜技术、冷链物流技术也相对滞后,造成鲜切花的损耗率过高,导致航空运输成为云南省鲜切花流通的主要运输方式,因此鲜切花的航空运价与鲜切花物流成本有着密不可分的关系,航空运价的波动对于鲜切花成本的波动有着较大影响。尤其部分节假日期间,航空运输资源紧缺,航空运价波动异常,鲜切花成本也会随之波动,因此研究航空运价波动的假日效应对云南省鲜切花产业的发展有着非常重要的意义。为了研究云南省鲜切花航空运价波动的假日效应,本文以昆明国际花卉交易中心代理发货商的鲜切花航空运价数据为研究对象,根据调查结果筛选出对鲜切花航空运价可能产生影响的节假日,通过绘制时间序列线图识别季节因素并进行趋势分析,利用Eviews工具,结合计量经济学和统计学的理论知识,建立时间序列的虚拟变量模型,初步判断哪些节假日可能会使鲜切花的航空运价出现波动现象,为了验证该推测,需进一步构建鲜切花航空运价的GARCH模型,拟合航空运价序列,对假日效应带来的影响进行更细致的实证分析。通过研究云南省鲜切花航空运价的波动规律,发现元旦、春节、情人节、妇女节、清明节、母亲节、七夕节、中秋节、国庆节、圣诞节的鲜切花航空运价明显受到假日效应的影响,而母亲节的假日效应影响不显著,通过分析节假日期间航空运价发生波动的原因以及假日效应带来的影响,分别对政府、供应商、分销商、消费者、运输单位提出相关的对策建议,希望能够有效降低鲜切花的物流成本,提高产业效益,并为云南省鲜切花产业的内销和出口找到一条经济实惠的出路,将云南省鲜切花自身的各项优势转化为经济优势,将云南省的新兴产业转化为优势产业,这对云南省鲜切花产业的发展有着至关重要的作用,并具有很高的研究价值和意义。
[Abstract]:Yunnan Province has unique natural conditions. With the support of the government, the flower industry has developed rapidly. Among them, fresh cut flower production has been the first in the country for 23 consecutive years, accounting for more than 75% of the domestic market share.It is the largest fresh cut flower production and marketing center in China and even Asia.Although the fresh cut flower industry in Yunnan Province has made good achievements, there are still many difficulties in the industry itself, among which the most prominent problem is that the flow of fresh cut flowers is not smooth: the speed of circulation of automobile transportation and train transportation is slow.And the lack of advanced logistics facilities, including post-harvest treatment technology, fresh-keeping technology, cold-chain logistics technology is also relatively lagging behind, resulting in the loss rate of fresh cut flowers is too high, resulting in air transport has become the main transportation mode of fresh cut flowers circulation in Yunnan Province.Therefore, the air freight rate of fresh cut flower is closely related to the logistics cost of fresh cut flower, and the fluctuation of air freight rate has great influence on the fluctuation of fresh cut flower cost.Especially during some holidays, the air transportation resources are scarce, the air transport price fluctuates unusually, the fresh cut flower cost will also fluctuate with it, so it is very important to study the holiday effect of the air freight price fluctuation for the development of Yunnan fresh cut flower industry.In order to study the holiday effect of air freight fluctuation of fresh cut flowers in Yunnan Province, this paper takes the air freight rate data of fresh cut flowers from the agent of Kunming International Flower Trade Center as the research object.According to the results of the survey, the possible influence on the air fares of fresh cut flowers is selected. The seasonal factors are identified by drawing time series diagrams and the trend analysis is carried out, and the theoretical knowledge of econometrics and statistics is combined with the use of Eviews tools.The virtual variable model of time series is established to determine which holidays may cause the fluctuation of air freight rate of fresh cut flowers. In order to verify the hypothesis, the GARCH model of air freight rate for fresh cut flowers should be further constructed to fit the air freight sequence.A more detailed empirical analysis of the impact of the holiday effect is carried out.By studying the fluctuation law of air freight rate of fresh cut flowers in Yunnan Province, we find that New Year's Day, Spring Festival, Valentine's Day, International Working Women's Day, Ching Ming Festival, Mother's Day, Ching Ming Festival, Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day,The air fares of Christmas cut flowers are obviously affected by the holiday effect, but the holiday effect of Mother's Day is not significant. By analyzing the reasons for the fluctuation of air fares during the holidays and the effects of the holiday effects, the paper analyzes the effects on the government respectively.Suppliers, distributors, consumers, transport units put forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions, hoping to effectively reduce the logistics costs of fresh cut flowers and improve industrial efficiency.And find an economical outlet for the domestic sales and export of the fresh cut flower industry in Yunnan Province, and turn all the advantages of the fresh cut flower industry of Yunnan Province into the economic advantage, and turn the new industry of Yunnan Province into the advantage industry.It plays an important role in the development of fresh cut flower industry in Yunnan Province and has high research value and significance.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.7;F562.5

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