中国交通运输业碳排放驱动因素的通径分析方法

发布时间：2018-04-09 00:37

本文选题：交通运输　切入点：碳排放　出处：《交通运输工程学报》2017年02期

【摘要】：分析了中国交通运输业碳排放驱动因素,基于多元回归分析方法,提出了碳排放驱动因素的通径分析方法;基于中国近20年交通运输业碳排放的面板数据,计算了碳排放驱动因素的直接通径系数与间接通径系数,分析了主要驱动因素对碳排放的直接影响程度及其相互作用产生的间接影响程度。分析结果表明:经济水平、运输强度、能源强度是影响交通运输业碳排放的主要因素,直接通径系数越大,对交通运输业碳排放拉动能力越大,间接通径系数越大,对其他因素依赖性越大;经济水平的直接通径系数为1.338,表明经济增长直接刺激了中国交通运输业碳排放的增长,间接通径系数之和为-0.350,表明经济水平对其他2个因素依赖较小,且具有较强的拉动效应;运输强度的直接通径系数为0.422,表明运输强度推动了交通运输业碳排放的增长,间接通径系数之和为1.171,表明运输强度对经济水平有较大的依赖性,单位GDP所消耗的物流量与物流成本较高,所附加的产业价值较低;能源强度的直接通径系数为0.216,表明能源强度是中国交通运输业碳排放增长的重要推动因素,间接通径系数之和为0.119,表明经济发展拉动了能源的快速消费,造成二氧化碳的大量排放,且单位周转量消耗的能源较高,能源的集约利用程度较低,造成了高昂的经济成本和环境成本。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the driving factors of carbon emissions in China's transportation industry, and puts forward a path analysis method of carbon emission drivers based on multiple regression analysis, and based on the panel data of carbon emissions of China's transportation industry in the past 20 years,The direct path coefficient and indirect path coefficient of the driving factors of carbon emissions were calculated, and the degree of direct influence of the main driving factors on carbon emissions and the degree of indirect influence of the interaction were analyzed.The results show that the economic level, transport intensity and energy intensity are the main factors that affect the carbon emission of transportation industry. The greater the direct path coefficient, the greater the pulling capacity of carbon emission and the greater the indirect path coefficient.The direct path coefficient of economic level is 1.338, which indicates that economic growth directly stimulates the growth of carbon emissions in China's transportation industry, and the sum of indirect path coefficient is -0.350, which indicates that the economic level is less dependent on the other two factors.The direct path coefficient of transport intensity is 0.422, which indicates that the transport intensity promotes the increase of carbon emission, and the sum of indirect path coefficient is 1.171, which indicates that the transport intensity is dependent on the economic level.The material flow and logistics cost per unit GDP are higher and the additional industry value is lower, the direct path coefficient of energy intensity is 0.216, which indicates that energy intensity is an important driving factor of carbon emission growth in China's transportation industry.The sum of indirect path coefficient is 0.119, which indicates that economic development has stimulated the rapid consumption of energy, caused a large amount of carbon dioxide emissions, and consumed a higher amount of energy per unit of turnover and a lower degree of intensive utilization of energy.Resulting in high economic and environmental costs.
【作者单位】：长安大学经济与管理学院;长安大学建筑工程学院;伯明翰大学土木工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51379015) 教育部人文社会科学基金项目(15YJC790015) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(310823170213,310823170648,310828160648)
【分类号】：X322

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