供给侧改革下基于VAR模型的现代物流与对外贸易关系研究——来自安徽省的样本数据

发布时间：2018-06-21 18:01

本文选题：供给侧改革 + 安徽省　；参考：《经济与管理评论》2017年05期

【摘要】：以1998-2014年安徽省数据为样本,选取进出口总值(Z)、运输总量(LC)、物流网络里程(LR)3个变量建立现代物流与对外贸易关系研究的VAR模型,结果表明三者之间存在长期均衡关系,且进出口总值是运输总量的单向Granger原因,物流网络里程是进出口总值的单向Granger原因,即外贸发展对物流需求具有拉动作用,但物流需求对进出口贸易作用不明显;物流供给对进出口贸易具有促进作用,而进出口贸易对物流供给作用不显著。据此,从物流供给降本增效,物流企业服务升级,培育外贸竞争新优势,搭建对外开放平台四个方面提出相关对策建议。
[Abstract]:Taking the data of 1998-2014 years in Anhui as a sample, the VAR model of the study of modern logistics and foreign trade relations is set up by 3 variables of gross import and export (Z), total transport volume (LC) and logistics network mileage (LR). The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the three, and the gross import and export value is one of the one-way Granger causes of the total transportation, and the logistics network mileage is The one-way Granger cause of the total import and export value, that is, the development of foreign trade has a pulling effect on the logistics demand, but the logistics demand has no obvious effect on import and export trade; logistics supply has a promoting effect on import and export trade, and the effect of import and export trade on logistics supply is not significant. To raise the new advantages of foreign trade competition and to set up four aspects of opening up platform, we put forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions.
【作者单位】：安徽大学商学院;南开大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“新型城镇化背景下小城镇电子商务物流发展研究”(项目编号:15BJY117) 安徽省教育厅人文社科重点项目“新型城镇化背景下安徽省农村物流发展研究”(项目编号:SK2015A241) 安徽大学2015级研究生学术创新研究扶持与强化项目“供给侧改革下现代物流与对外贸易关系研究”的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F259.27;F752.8

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