京津冀物流一体化效应分析与发展对策

发布时间：2018-06-28 16:29

本文选题：京津冀 + 回归分析　；参考：《天津商业大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：物流业作为生产性服务业,其发展程度对社会经济的各个方面都有一定的影响。然而相比国外发达国家来说,我国物流成本占GDP比重过高,这一问题不仅影响了企业和产品的竞争力,更在宏观上影响了国民经济的总体水平。京津冀也存在类似情况,三地之间普遍缺乏统一的规划,物流网络体系建设和产业的布局也几乎没有协调,每个城市都根据自己的需要有独立的物流发展规划并建立了独立的物流园区,造成了重复建设和物流资源的浪费,同时也造成了物流体系的混乱。因此对降低物流成本途径的研究也越来越受到人们的重视。学术界目前现有的对物流成本的研究主要集中在对第三方物流成本的归集与核算上,而且主要是针对某个物流企业的成本研究。对于把整个区域作为整体,从区域物流一体化的角度对物流成本的研究还少之又少。本文首先分析了京津冀物流一体化的研究背景和意义,介绍了本文所用到的理论基础:产业集群理论、区域一体化整合理论和系统动力学方法,并研究了国内外的相关文献。然后对京津冀物流业的发展现状进行了分析,并通过SWOT分析法分析了京津冀物流一体化面临的优势、劣势、机遇和威胁。分析结果显示与发达国家相比,京津冀物流一体化过程中存在一定的优势,但是也存在明显的劣势和不足,比如:京津冀政府之间经济利益协调效率较低,物流基础设施建设不协调;物流标准化和信息化水平偏低;现代物流人才短缺;物流企业规模小,第三方物流发展不充分等等。然后分别用回归分析法和灰色关联分析法分析了物流业与经济增长和产业结构的关系。结果表明,京津冀区域物流的发展与经济增长之间存在着明显的线性关系:当京津冀物流业每增加一个单位,GDP就增加17.240个单位;当京津冀货运量增加一万吨,GDP就增加0.3327亿元。京津冀区域物流与第一、二、三次产业之间存在明显的关联,其关联度分别达到0.528323262、0.881250576、0.786846765。因此,京津冀区域物流业对促进经济增长和优化产业结构方面都有很大的贡献,为京津冀快速发展物流业并降低物流成本提供了依据。然后以系统的观点对整个区域物流的成本构成情况进行了分析,首先分析了使用系统动力学方法分析物流成本的可行性,随后确定模型系统的边界和所需要的函数并确立了各个物流成本影响因素之间的逻辑关系,从而建立了运输成本、库存成本和总成本的整体模型。并结合京津冀物流成本实际情况把2005-2014年的各数据和影响因子代入模型中,对模型运行的有效性进行了检验,有效性检验结果表明:京津冀物流实际成本与仿真结果的误差均在10%以内,因此可以认为所建立的模型是有效的。接下来使用该模型对未来十年的物流成本进行了仿真分析,然后又使用该模型对实现物流一体化之后的未来十年的物流成本与目前状况下的物流成本进行了比较分析。分析结果显示:与目前状况下的物流成本仿真结果相比,物流一体化后的物流成本显著降低。可以得出本文的结论:京津冀物流一体化效应显著。因此:实现京津冀区域物流的一体化是降低物流成本的有效途径。本文最后针对京津冀物流一体化发展过程中的障碍提出了促进物流一体化的发展对策:促进府际之间经济利益的协调和物流基础设施的整合;加强物流标准化与信息化水平建设;多种方式培养、引进物流人才;鼓励开展物流企业的整合和跨区发展及第三方物流的发展。本文关于京津冀物流一体化实现途径的研究,有助于府际之间经济利益的协调,有助于京津冀构建布局合理,连接贯通的综合交通运输体系,统一规划物流基础设施,各个地区合理定位,错位发展。并促进人才的培养,加快区域经济一体化的进程。为京津冀及其他地区发展一体化的物流提供了借鉴,并将为加快京津冀经济一体化进程起到一定的积极作用,具有一定的现实意义和指导意义。
[Abstract]:As a productive service industry, the development of logistics industry has a certain influence on all aspects of social economy. However, compared with developed countries in foreign countries, China's logistics cost accounts for the high proportion of GDP, which not only affects the competitiveness of enterprises and products, but also affects the overall level of the national economy in the macro. Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are also the same. In similar cases, there is a general lack of unified planning between the three areas. The construction of the logistics network system and the layout of the industry have hardly been coordinated. Each city has independent logistics development planning and an independent logistics park based on its own needs. It has caused the waste of repeated construction and material flow, and also caused the logistics system. Therefore, more and more attention has been paid to the research on the ways to reduce the cost of logistics. The current research on logistics costs in the academic world is mainly focused on the collection and accounting of the cost of the third party logistics, and mainly aimed at the cost research of a logistics enterprise. The research on logistics cost is few. This paper first analyzes the background and significance of the research on the integration of logistics in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and introduces the theoretical basis used in this paper: industrial cluster theory, regional integration integration theory and system dynamics method, and studies the related literature at home and abroad. Then the logistics of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is then carried out. The present situation of the development of the industry is analyzed, and the advantages, disadvantages, opportunities and threats of the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are analyzed by SWOT analysis. The results show that there are some advantages in the process of logistics integration in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei compared with the developed countries, but there are obvious disadvantages and shortcomings, such as the economy between Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. The efficiency of interest coordination is low, the construction of logistics infrastructure is not coordinated, the level of logistics standardization and information is low, the shortage of modern logistics personnel, the small scale of logistics enterprises, the insufficient development of the third party logistics and so on. Then the relationship between the logistics industry and the economic growth and industrial structure is analyzed with the regression analysis and grey relational analysis. The results show that there is a clear linear relationship between the development of regional logistics and economic growth in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. When the logistics industry in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei increases one unit, GDP increases 17.240 units. When the volume of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is increased by ten thousand tons, the GDP will increase by 33 million 270 thousand yuan. There is a clear connection between the area of Beijing Tianjin Hebei region and the first, second and the three industries. The correlation degree of the regional logistics industry in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei has a great contribution to the promotion of economic growth and the optimization of the industrial structure. It provides a basis for the rapid development of the logistics industry and the reduction of logistics costs in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and then makes a systematic view on the cost composition of the whole regional logistics. The analysis is carried out. First, the feasibility of using the system dynamics to analyze the logistics cost is analyzed. Then the boundary of the model system and the function needed are determined and the logical relationship between the factors of the logistics cost is established. The overall model of the transportation cost, the inventory cost and the total cost is established. The actual cost of the 2005-2014 year data and influence factors is replaced by the model, and the validity of the model is tested. The effectiveness test results show that the actual cost of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei logistics and the simulation results are within 10%. Therefore, the model is considered to be effective. Next, the model is used for the future ten. The logistics cost of the year is simulated and analyzed. Then, the model is used to analyze the logistics cost of the next ten years after the integration of logistics and the logistics cost under the current situation. The results show that the logistics cost is significantly lower than the logistics cost simulation results under the current situation. The conclusion is that the integration effect of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is significant. Therefore, the realization of the integration of the regional logistics in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is an effective way to reduce the logistics cost. Finally, this paper puts forward the countermeasures to promote the integration of logistics integration in the process of the integration of logistics in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. The integration of logistics infrastructure, the construction of logistics standardization and information level, the cultivation of various ways, the introduction of logistics personnel, the integration of logistics enterprises and the development of the three party logistics. The research on the implementation of the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is conducive to the coordination of economic interests between the government and the inter governmental economic benefits. Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei will build a comprehensive transportation system with a reasonable layout, a integrated transportation system, a unified planning of logistics infrastructure, reasonable positioning and dislocation in each area, and promoting the training of talents and accelerating the process of regional economic integration. It provides a reference for the development of integrated logistics in Beijing, Tianjin Hebei and other areas, and will accelerate the economy of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. The process of industrialization plays a positive role and has certain practical significance and guiding significance.
【学位授予单位】：天津商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F259.27

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