肉类产品价值链中价格传递与风险分析

发布时间：2018-07-09 22:50

本文选题：肉类产品 + 价值链　；参考：《江苏师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：肉类产品属于食品,是农产品的一部分。肉类产品和其他产品一样,价格在市场上是波动的,在价值链的上下游间是传递的,价格传递会给生产企业带来风险,这就需要经济学的研究从理论上说明生产企业如何化解价格传递的风险问题。在实践方面,目前食品安全事件是社会关注热点,如何让老百姓吃上放心肉已成为人们迫切期待解决的问题。在此背景下,消费者对肉类产品质量提出了更高的要求,给肉类企业的生产运营带来了巨大的压力与挑战,同时也面临许多机遇。这就需要经济学从理论上研究肉类生产企业如何保证食品安全、规避价格风险、提高自身竞争力的问题。因此,本文研究的主题或宗旨:肉类产品生产企业如何在保证让老百姓吃上放心肉的基础上,化解价格在价值链中传递所带来的风险,以提高企业竞争力。肉类生产企业是其产品价格的制定者,同时也是价格接受者,承受着价格波动与传递的风险,故有必要先对我国肉类产品的价格波动进行分析。本文以猪肉价格为例,运用X12季节调整法和HP滤波法将猪肉价格进行分解,分析其波动特征;阐述了猪肉价格波动原因;基于肉类产品的价值链构成和价格传递机理的分析,对肉类相关价格数据进行ADF检验,运用协整检验、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果检验对肉类产品价值链中价格传递进行实证分析;分析价格波动及其传递对生产企业的影响。接着从供给角度,研究分析了肉类产品在价值链供给端中存在的风险及其机理。以熟肉制品为例,基于层次分析法对熟肉制品价值链风险进行评估,设计了7个一级指标,26个二级指标,以事前、事中和事后为风险评估的方案层,形成了熟肉制品价值链风险评估模型。运用YAAHP软件统筹专家打分结果,表明产品风险、技术风险、物流风险是熟肉制品价值链中影响较大的风险因素。并对产品风险、技术风险、物流风险进行灵敏度分析,分析表明随着3个风险权重的增加,风险控制阶段从事前转为事中控制,对熟肉制品价值链的事前控制应进一步加强。然后从需求角度,研究肉类产品在价值链需求端的风险。选取冷鲜肉为研究对象,基于消费者行为的三因素理论,运用层次-模糊综合评价法对冷鲜肉消费者行为进行研究分析,表明消费者个人因素、心理因素和食品安全是冷鲜肉需求端重要的风险因素;网民较倾向于购买冷鲜肉,其中食品安全是肉类产品生产企业在价值链需求端面临的最大的风险。最后,根据上述肉类产品供求角度的风险分析,价格在价值链中传递的机理分析,揭示了价格波动与传递的内在规律以及影响价格波动的因素,价格在价值链中传递的风险特征,据此对肉类生产企业如何消除价格波动与传递所带来的风险或不利影响,提高自身竞争力提出一些建议。
[Abstract]:Meat products belong to food and are part of agricultural products. Like other products, the price of meat products fluctuates in the market and is transmitted between the upper and lower reaches of the value chain. Price transmission brings risks to the manufacturing enterprises. This requires the study of economics to explain theoretically how to resolve the risk of price transmission. In practice, the current food safety incidents are the focus of social concern, how to let the common people eat meat has become an urgent problem to be solved. In this context, consumers put forward higher requirements for the quality of meat products, which brings great pressure and challenges to the production and operation of meat enterprises, but also faces many opportunities. This requires economics to study theoretically how to ensure food safety, avoid the price risk and improve the competitiveness of meat production enterprises. Therefore, the theme or purpose of this study: how to ensure that the production of meat products on the basis of ensuring that the common people eat rest assured meat, to resolve the risk of price transmission in the value chain, in order to improve the competitiveness of enterprises. Meat production enterprises are the makers and receivers of the price of their products, and bear the risk of price fluctuation and transmission. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the price fluctuation of meat products in China first. Taking pork price as an example, this paper uses X12 seasonal adjustment method and HP filter method to decompose pork price, analyze its fluctuation characteristics, explain the reason of pork price fluctuation, and analyze the value chain structure and price transfer mechanism based on meat products. Using ADF test, error correction model and Granger causality test to analyze the price transfer in the meat product value chain, and analyze the influence of price fluctuation and its transmission on the production enterprises. Then, the paper analyzes the risk and mechanism of meat products in the supply chain from the point of view of supply. Taking cooked meat products as an example, the risk assessment of cooked meat products value chain is carried out based on AHP. Seven primary indexes and 26 secondary indexes are designed. The risk assessment model of cooked meat products value chain is formed. Using YAAHP software as a whole, the results show that product risk, technical risk and logistics risk are the most important risk factors in cooked meat product value chain. The sensitivity analysis of product risk, technical risk and logistics risk shows that with the increase of the three risk weights, the risk control stage is converted to in-process control, and the prior control of the cooked meat product value chain should be further strengthened. Then from the demand point of view, the risk of meat products in the demand side of the value chain is studied. Based on the three-factor theory of consumer behavior, the cold fresh meat was selected as the research object, and the hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to study and analyze the consumer behavior of cold fresh meat. Psychological factors and food safety are important risk factors on the demand side of cold fresh meat, and Internet users tend to buy cold fresh meat, among which food safety is the biggest risk faced by meat production enterprises in the demand side of the value chain. Finally, according to the above risk analysis of meat product supply and demand angle, the mechanism of price transfer in the value chain is analyzed, and the inherent law of price fluctuation and transmission and the factors influencing price fluctuation are revealed. On the basis of the risk characteristics transmitted by price in the value chain, some suggestions on how to eliminate the risks or adverse effects brought by price fluctuation and transmission and to improve the competitiveness of meat producers are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：江苏师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.7

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