基于灰色系统理论的区域物流成本分析及预测研究

发布时间：2018-08-04 16:45

【摘要】：当下,我国正处于经济增长速度的换挡期、经济结构调整的阵痛期和深化改革开放的攻坚期“三期叠加”的发展阶段。习近平总书记提出的“新常态”思维要求适应新常态,从当前经济发展的阶段性特征出发,保持战略上的平常心态,受我国经济进入“新常态”影响,物流业同样正在进入“新常态”的发展阶段,其根本特征就是高效率、低成本、可持续。国务院印发的《物流业发展中长期规划(2014—2020年)》也明确提出要以提高物流效率、降低物流成本为重点,这不仅是促进物流发展之需,更是提高经济运行质量和效率的迫切要求,也是经济与物流互动发展的基本规律。在宏观层面上,为了国家和各个区域的政府及相关部门制定和落实物流发展规划及制定相关政策提供依据,更好的进行物流成本统计、分析及预测工作,应从数量上对物流成本的结构、主要影响因素、变化水平等进行分析研究,应及早对带有苗头性、趋势性、倾向性的社会物流成本变化做出预测,以便于相关决策部门尽早做出反应,采取相应措施,保证各区域物流业的健康、可持续发展。针对上述问题,本文在分析我国区域物流成本统计指标体系的基础上提出进一步的增加、完善指标体系的思路,通过运用基于灰色系统理论的分析及预测研究方法,建立灰色关联分析及灰色预测模型,然后以江西省为例进行了实证研究,通过使用软件MATLAB对影响江西省物流成本的因素的11个相关指标进行了灰色关联分析及预测物流总成本,通过实例分析验证了灰色系统理论运用于区域物流成本的分析及预测的可行性和有效性,最后根据分析及预测的结果提出有效控制江西省物流成本的对策建议。本文通过从宏观层面上更加深入的研究区域物流成本,以期实现我国各区域物流成本的降低,经济效益的提高,促进我国物流业的进一步发展。
[Abstract]:At present, our country is in the shift period of economic growth speed, the painful period of economic structure adjustment and the development stage of "three phases superposition" in the period of deepening reform and opening to the outside world. The "new normal" thinking put forward by General Secretary Xi Jinping calls for adapting to the new normal, proceeding from the stage characteristics of current economic development, maintaining a common mentality in strategy, and being influenced by the entry of China's economy into the "new normal". The logistics industry is also entering the development stage of "new normal", which is characterized by high efficiency, low cost and sustainable. The medium- and long-term plan for the development of the logistics industry (2014-2020) issued by the State Council also explicitly proposes to focus on improving logistics efficiency and reducing logistics costs, which is not only the need to promote the development of logistics. It is also an urgent requirement to improve the quality and efficiency of economic operation, and is also the basic law of the interactive development of economy and logistics. At the macro level, for the national and regional governments and relevant departments to formulate and implement logistics development plans and formulate relevant policies to provide the basis for better logistics cost statistics, analysis and forecasting, It is necessary to analyze and study the structure of logistics cost, the main influencing factors, the level of change and so on, and to predict the change of social logistics cost with seedling, trend and tendency as soon as possible. In order to facilitate the relevant decision-making departments to respond as soon as possible and take appropriate measures to ensure the health and sustainable development of the regional logistics industry. Aiming at the above problems, this paper puts forward the idea of further increasing and perfecting the index system on the basis of analyzing the statistical index system of regional logistics cost in our country, and applies the method of analysis and prediction based on grey system theory. The grey correlation analysis and grey prediction model are established, and then taking Jiangxi Province as an example, the paper makes an empirical study. By using the software MATLAB, it makes grey correlation analysis and forecasts the total logistics cost of 11 related indexes that affect the logistics cost of Jiangxi Province. The feasibility and effectiveness of applying grey system theory to the analysis and prediction of regional logistics cost are verified by an example. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions for effectively controlling the logistics cost in Jiangxi Province are put forward according to the results of the analysis and prediction. In this paper, we study the regional logistics cost more deeply from the macro level, in order to realize the reduction of the regional logistics cost and the improvement of the economic benefit, and to promote the further development of the logistics industry in our country.
【学位授予单位】：江西理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F253.7;F259.27

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