“一带一路”战略下甘肃省物流需求预测及实证研究
发布时间：2018-08-08 14:58
【摘要】：物流需求预测是物流发展规划的基础,准确的需求预测能提高物流运作的效率,对物流资源的有效配置起到积极的作用,也有助于把握区域物流需求的强度,实现区域物流需求与供给的相对平衡,对提高区域物流规划质量和区域物流运行效率具有重要的理论与实际意义。本文主要研究“一带一路”战略下甘肃省的物流需求预测,创新性的将“一带一路”战略影响中的各种定性、定量指标分别采用不同的方法进行量化,建立了一种基于虚拟变量的回归预测模型(DVR模型),并分别用MLR模型、GM(1,1)灰色预测模型与自己建立的DVR模型,根据甘肃省2001-2015年的面板数据对2016年的物流需求进行了预测,结果表明:(1)“一带一路”政策因素对甘肃省物流需求具有积极的促进作用;(2)DVR模型能提高预测的精度,可以为“一带一路”战略下的甘肃省物流需求规划提供一定的决策支持。本文主要完成了以下工作:1、建立了“一带一路”政策影响下甘肃省情境化的物流需求指标体系。根据甘肃省在“一带一路”战略中的定位,“一带一路”政策落实情况及与物流相关的发展现状,将自实施“一带一路”战略以来甘肃省与之相关的政策、会议、建设情况等事件进行整理、分类,并按不同类别对政策因素依照其特性进行分析、提取指标,建立了指标体系。2、将“一带一路”战略对甘肃省物流需求的政策影响等定性和定量指标分别进行了量化。对其中的定性指标采用AHP中的(-2,2)EM法进行量化;定量指标按照在建项目和建成项目分别进行量化处理。并采用CRITIC法对各指标赋予不同权重,对指标进行按类整合。3、构建了基于“一带一路”战略背景的甘肃省物流需求预测模型(DVR模型)。分析所提取指标的特性,结合甘肃省的具体省情,建立基于“一带一路”战略的物流需求预测模型——虚拟变量回归预测模型。4、根据分析结果给出了甘肃省在“一带一路”战略背景下发展物流产业的详细建议。将DVR模型与其他几种模型的预测结果作对比,进行实证分析,进一步说明本模型在“一带一路”战略背景下甘肃省物流需求的预测中更为准确。并依据以上分析提出了详尽的政策建议,为甘肃物流发展提供决策支持。
[Abstract]:Logistics demand prediction is the basis of logistics development planning. Accurate demand prediction can improve the efficiency of logistics operation, play an active role in the effective allocation of logistics resources, and also help to grasp the intensity of regional logistics demand, realize the relative balance between regional logistics demand and supply, and improve the quality of regional logistics planning and regional logistics transportation. The line efficiency has important theoretical and practical significance. This paper mainly studies the logistics demand forecast of Gansu Province under the strategy of "one way along the road", and innovatively quantifies various qualitative and quantitative indexes in the strategic influence of "one area and one road", and establishes a regression prediction model based on virtual variables (DVR model). With the MLR model, GM (1,1) grey prediction model and the DVR model established by itself, the logistics demand in 2016 was predicted according to the panel data of 2001-2015 years in Gansu province. The results showed that (1) the policy factors of "one way and one road" had a positive effect on the logistics demand of Gansu province; (2) the DVR model could improve the accuracy of the forecast. It can provide a certain decision support for the logistics demand planning of Gansu Province under the "one way" strategy. This paper has completed the following work: 1, established the situational logistics demand index system of Gansu Province under the influence of "one way and one road" policy. According to the positioning of Gansu Province in the "one area and one road" strategy, the policy of "one road and one road" The implementation of the situation and the current situation of logistics related development will be organized and classified in Gansu province and related policies, conferences and construction conditions since the implementation of the "one road area" strategy. According to different categories, the policy factors are analyzed according to their characteristics, indexes are extracted and the index system.2 is established, and the "one way" strategy is made to Gansu Province. Qualitative and quantitative indicators are quantified, such as the policy impact of the demand for logistics in Jiangsu Province. The qualitative indexes are quantified by the (-2,2) EM method in AHP; quantitative indicators are quantified according to the construction projects and the built projects. The indexes are given different weights by the CRITIC method, and the index is integrated in the class according to the class.3. The Gansu logistics demand forecasting model (DVR model) is based on the strategic background of "one area and one road". The characteristics of the extracted indexes are analyzed and the logistics demand forecasting model based on the "one area and one road" strategy is set up based on the specific provincial situation in Gansu province. The model of virtual variable regression prediction model is.4. According to the analysis results, the "area of Gansu province" is given. The detailed suggestions on the development of logistics industry under the strategic background are made. The DVR model is compared with the results of other models to make an empirical analysis. It further illustrates that the model is more accurate in the forecast of logistics demand in Gansu Province under the "one along the road" strategy. And the detailed policy suggestions are put forward according to the above analysis. To provide decision support for the development of logistics.
【学位授予单位】：兰州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F259.27
本文编号：2172145
[Abstract]:Logistics demand prediction is the basis of logistics development planning. Accurate demand prediction can improve the efficiency of logistics operation, play an active role in the effective allocation of logistics resources, and also help to grasp the intensity of regional logistics demand, realize the relative balance between regional logistics demand and supply, and improve the quality of regional logistics planning and regional logistics transportation. The line efficiency has important theoretical and practical significance. This paper mainly studies the logistics demand forecast of Gansu Province under the strategy of "one way along the road", and innovatively quantifies various qualitative and quantitative indexes in the strategic influence of "one area and one road", and establishes a regression prediction model based on virtual variables (DVR model). With the MLR model, GM (1,1) grey prediction model and the DVR model established by itself, the logistics demand in 2016 was predicted according to the panel data of 2001-2015 years in Gansu province. The results showed that (1) the policy factors of "one way and one road" had a positive effect on the logistics demand of Gansu province; (2) the DVR model could improve the accuracy of the forecast. It can provide a certain decision support for the logistics demand planning of Gansu Province under the "one way" strategy. This paper has completed the following work: 1, established the situational logistics demand index system of Gansu Province under the influence of "one way and one road" policy. According to the positioning of Gansu Province in the "one area and one road" strategy, the policy of "one road and one road" The implementation of the situation and the current situation of logistics related development will be organized and classified in Gansu province and related policies, conferences and construction conditions since the implementation of the "one road area" strategy. According to different categories, the policy factors are analyzed according to their characteristics, indexes are extracted and the index system.2 is established, and the "one way" strategy is made to Gansu Province. Qualitative and quantitative indicators are quantified, such as the policy impact of the demand for logistics in Jiangsu Province. The qualitative indexes are quantified by the (-2,2) EM method in AHP; quantitative indicators are quantified according to the construction projects and the built projects. The indexes are given different weights by the CRITIC method, and the index is integrated in the class according to the class.3. The Gansu logistics demand forecasting model (DVR model) is based on the strategic background of "one area and one road". The characteristics of the extracted indexes are analyzed and the logistics demand forecasting model based on the "one area and one road" strategy is set up based on the specific provincial situation in Gansu province. The model of virtual variable regression prediction model is.4. According to the analysis results, the "area of Gansu province" is given. The detailed suggestions on the development of logistics industry under the strategic background are made. The DVR model is compared with the results of other models to make an empirical analysis. It further illustrates that the model is more accurate in the forecast of logistics demand in Gansu Province under the "one along the road" strategy. And the detailed policy suggestions are put forward according to the above analysis. To provide decision support for the development of logistics.
【学位授予单位】：兰州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F259.27
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