北京市城市物流节点空间演化及趋势研究

发布时间：2018-08-27 11:03

【摘要】：城市物流节点是城市物流发展的重要组成部分,是完成城市配送的重要前提。经过几十年的建设和发展,特别是自“十·五”期间北京市物流发展规划开始,北京市开始关注并规划物流节点布局,当前北京市已经基本形成“三环、五带、多中心”的城市物流节点空间布局。但是随着京津冀协同发展政策的提出,北京市逐渐对“非首都”功能进行疏解,引导人口迁移和产业结构优化;与此同时河北、天津也正在规划建设物流枢纽节点城市和地区。内部环境和政策的变化,外部区域的吸引,都将对北京市城市物流节点布局提出挑战。因此,本文通过对北京市城市物流节点空间演化过程的研究,分析影响城市物流节点空间布局的影响因素,并在此基础上建立物流节点外迁选址模型,对在政策引导和环境变化情况下的物流节点外迁可能性和外迁的主要去向进行研究。首先,本文通过调研和对统计资料的分析,收集北京市各个时期物流节点建设情况,对北京市城市物流节点空间演化过程进行分析。通过运用数理统计和空间地理统计方法分析各个演化阶段物流节点空间的扩散和集聚特征。之后,结合需求分布变迁、地价变化、政策环境引导和交通设施条件对影响物流节点演化的因素进行分析。然后,在分析北京市当前物流节点发展新环境基础上,建立考虑政策因素影响的城市物流节点外迁选址的混合整数规划模型。模型考虑城市物流节点外迁与否带来的成本和收益,以总成本最优为决策目标。最后,运用MATLAB软件调用GUROBI优化求解工具进行模拟仿真。分别模拟基础设施补贴政策、碳税政策和限行政策条件下的城市物流节点选址和外迁可能性,进而分析出有效引导城市物流节点外迁的政策和城市物流节点外迁的主要方向。研究表明,北京市城市物流节点,在政策引导、需求布局变化、地价等因素影响下呈现出一定的扩散趋势,且在不同演化阶段其扩散方向不同。而在政策规划条件和交通条件下,物流节点集中建设,物流集聚模式逐渐明显,且集聚位置与规划节点呈现出一致方向。而随着京津冀协同发展政策的实施,北京市城市物流节点面临着环境和政策的变化,通过仿真模拟发现,基础设施建设补贴政策是有效引导城市物流节点外迁的政策,碳税差异政策能够促进城市物流节点的外迁可能性,但限行政策带来的成本增加是物流节点外迁的阻力。在物流节点外迁方向上,由于地价优势和配送路径优势北京市西北部的马池口是重要的外迁选址,东部河北省三河市、廊坊市是外迁的主要区域,西南部的琢州也是选择之一。
[Abstract]:Urban logistics node is an important part of the development of urban logistics and an important prerequisite for the completion of urban distribution. After decades of construction and development, especially since the 10th Five-Year Plan for Logistics Development in Beijing, Beijing has begun to pay attention to and plan the distribution of logistics nodes. At present, Beijing has basically formed "three rings, five belts," Multi-center "urban logistics node spatial layout." However, with the development policy of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the function of "non-capital" has been gradually clarified in Beijing to guide population migration and industrial structure optimization. At the same time, Hebei and Tianjin are also planning to build logistics hub cities and regions. The change of internal environment and policy and the attraction of external region will challenge the layout of logistics node in Beijing. Therefore, through the study of the spatial evolution process of the urban logistics nodes in Beijing, this paper analyzes the factors that affect the spatial layout of the urban logistics nodes, and establishes the model of location selection of the logistics nodes on the basis of this. This paper studies the possibility and the main direction of outward migration of logistics node under the circumstance of policy guidance and environment change. Firstly, through investigation and analysis of statistical data, this paper collects the status of logistics node construction in each period of Beijing, and analyzes the spatial evolution process of urban logistics node in Beijing. By means of mathematical statistics and spatial geography statistics, the spatial diffusion and agglomeration characteristics of logistics nodes in different evolution stages are analyzed. Then, the factors influencing the evolution of logistics nodes are analyzed by combining the change of demand distribution, the change of land price, the guidance of policy environment and the condition of transportation facilities. Then, based on the analysis of the new environment of logistics node development in Beijing, a mixed integer programming model for location selection of urban logistics node is established considering the influence of policy factors. The model considers the cost and benefit of urban logistics node relocation or not, and takes the total cost optimization as the decision goal. Finally, MATLAB software is used to call GUROBI optimization tool to simulate and simulate. Under the condition of infrastructure subsidy policy, carbon tax policy and restriction policy, this paper simulates the location and possibility of urban logistics node relocation, and then analyzes the policy of effectively guiding urban logistics node relocation and the main direction of urban logistics node relocation. The research shows that the urban logistics node in Beijing has a certain diffusion trend under the influence of policy guidance, demand layout change, land price and so on, and its diffusion direction is different in different evolution stages. Under the conditions of policy planning and transportation, the logistics node centralized construction, the logistics agglomeration model gradually obvious, and the location of the planning node and the planning node showed the same direction. With the implementation of the Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei cooperative development policies, the urban logistics nodes in Beijing are facing changes in environment and policies. Through simulation, it is found that the subsidy policy of infrastructure construction is an effective policy to guide the relocation of urban logistics nodes. Carbon tax difference policy can promote the possibility of urban logistics node emigration, but the increase of cost brought by the restriction policy is the resistance of logistics node emigration. Because of the advantage of land price and distribution route, Machikou in northwest of Beijing is an important location for the relocation of logistics nodes. Sanhe City and Langfang City in the east of Hebei Province are the main areas of emigration, and Zhuozhou in the southwest is also one of the choices.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F259.27

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