鲜食农产品流通GM模型构建及验证

发布时间：2018-10-15 18:33

【摘要】：[目的]利用灰色系统理论模型GM模型预测鲜食农产品物流量,以期为提高鲜食农产品流通效率提出前瞻性思路。[方法]基于鲜食农产品物流发展水平相对落后的问题,以2005~2013年间我国鲜食农产品的物流量为研究对象,通过灰色控制系统理论中的GM(1,1)模型原理的预测和检验方法,验证了该模型在鲜食农产品物流中的实用性。[结果]2005~2013年,我国的鲜食农产品实际物流量在(10 000±2 000)万t波动,除2005年实际物流量与预测物流量等同外,2006~2013年的预测物流量均高出实际物流量,而2014年预测物流量(8 756万t)明显低于历年物流量的平均水平。[结论]GM(1,1)模型预测的平均相对误差率为6.15%,勉强可适用于鲜食农产品物流量的预测。
[Abstract]:[objective] to predict the flow of fresh agricultural products by using the grey system model GM model in order to improve the circulation efficiency of fresh agricultural products. [methods] based on the problem that the logistics level of fresh food agricultural products is relatively backward, the logistics flow of fresh agricultural products in China from 2005 to 2013 is taken as the research object, and the prediction and test method of GM (1K1) model principle in grey control system theory is adopted. The practicability of the model in the logistics of fresh agricultural products was verified. [results] from 2005 to 2013, the actual flow of fresh agricultural products in China fluctuated at (10 000 卤2 000) tons. Except that the actual volume of goods flow in 2005 was the same as the predicted one, the predicted volume of goods flow from 2006 to 2013 was higher than the actual one. The predicted mass flow (87.56 million t) in 2014 is obviously lower than the average level of the past years. [conclusion] the average relative error rate of GM model is 6.15, which can be applied to the prediction of fresh agricultural products.
【作者单位】：山西农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：山西省哲学社会科学项目“山西省农产品流通效率的测度及其影响因素研究”(201512) 山西农业大学经济管理学院基金项目“山西省农产品物流产业一体化模式研究”(jgky2016005)
【分类号】：F326.6

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