基于矩阵与概率的工程变更全影响分析

发布时间：2018-02-27 06:28

本文关键词： 工程变更影响分析影响传播矩阵与概率　出处：《长安大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：建设项目施工过程中使用的施工技术、机械设备和材料不断推陈出新,与其相关的政策法规也在持续更新甚至有新的文件出台,施工的自然等环境条件信息时常变化且难以准确掌握,客观上的不确定以及主观上的变动和失误使工程变更不可避免。工程变更对成本、工期和质量安全三大主要项目管理目标多产生负面影响,因此,作为项目的主导者,业主管理控制工程变更不善易导致无法达到预期的投资效益甚至项目投资失败,对工程变更影响缺乏有效分析是造成该后果的原因之一。在总结归纳既有的变更原因、变更研究方法和工具以及变更应对策略的基础上,分析变更产生的影响,所取得的研究成果如下:(1)剖析了工程变更具有的不可避免性、传播性和多方参与性;从建设项目施工过程中的各项工作着手,厘清了工程变更对三大主要项目管理目标的影响机理;建立了兼顾多目标实现且结合主客观因素的工程变更全影响分析的概念。(2)提出了用影响可能性乘以影响程度值衡量工程变更影响的基本思路;构建了能够直观、准确地表达工程变更影响且利于展开深入研究的多种矩阵;建立了能够清晰形象地表达工程变更影响传播的可能路径和各路径上先后影响的工作的变更影响传播树。(3)运用积事件的概率原理计算出了变更影响沿某条路径传播的可能性;基于和事件的概率原理求解出了变更影响沿各可能路径传播的可能性;通过求解变更各可能传播情况的平均影响程度值,解决了变更影响沿各可能路径传播的影响程度值确定的难题,并分析总结出了该值计算的通用公式。(4)定量分析了工程变更传播产生的综合影响;运用矩阵的乘法运算定量分析了考虑业主对三大主要目标各有侧重的工程变更全影响;通过实例应用,验证了影响分析方法的有效性。针对已有或定性、或单一的工程变更影响分析研究无法满足业主全方位目标实现的需要的问题,提出了基于矩阵与概率的精确、全面、可靠的工程变更影响分析方法,从而为业主动态、及时、精细地管理控制工程变更提供参考。
[Abstract]:The construction techniques, machinery and materials used in the construction process of construction projects are constantly emerging, and the policies and regulations related to them are also continuously updated and even new documents are issued. The information of environmental conditions such as the nature of construction often changes and is difficult to grasp accurately. The objective uncertainty and subjective changes and mistakes make the engineering changes inevitable. The three main project management objectives of time limit and quality safety have a negative impact. Therefore, as the leader of the project, the poor management and control of the project easily lead to the failure to achieve the expected investment benefit and even the failure of the project investment. The lack of effective analysis of the impact of engineering changes is one of the causes of the consequences. On the basis of summing up the existing reasons of change, the research methods and tools of change, and the strategies to deal with the changes, this paper analyzes the effects of the changes. The research results obtained are as follows: (1) analyzing the inevitability, dissemination and multi-participation of the project changes; starting from the various work during the construction process of the construction project, The influence mechanism of engineering change on the three main project management objectives is clarified. This paper establishes the concept of full impact analysis of engineering change, which takes account of multi-objective realization and combines subjective and objective factors. It puts forward the basic idea of measuring the influence of engineering change by multiplying the influence probability by the value of influence degree, and constructs a method that can be intuitionistic. To express the influence of engineering change accurately and to develop a variety of matrices for further study; The change influence propagation tree which can clearly and vividly express the possible path of engineering change influence propagation and the work of each path has been established. The probability principle of product event is used to calculate the possibility of the change influence propagating along a certain path. Based on the probability principle of the sum event, the possibility of the change influence propagating along each possible path is calculated. It solves the problem of determining the influence degree value of the change influence propagating along each possible path, and analyzes and sums up the general formula for calculating this value. The multiplicative operation of matrix is used to quantitatively analyze the total influence of the owner on the three main objectives of the project, and the effectiveness of the method is verified by an example. Or the problem that a single project change impact analysis can not meet the needs of the owner's omnidirectional goal realization, this paper puts forward an accurate, comprehensive and reliable engineering change impact analysis method based on matrix and probability, which is dynamic and timely for the owner. Carefully manage control engineering changes to provide reference.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU71

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