基于GA-BP神经网络的新疆地区建筑工程项目风险评估研究

发布时间：2018-03-05 10:43

本文选题：建筑工程项目　切入点：指标体系　出处：《新疆大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,风险评估作为风险管理的重要组成部分,在建筑业生产实践中受到越来越多的重视,建筑工程风险评估问题成为研究的热点。随着国家援疆力度的加强,新疆建筑行业存在较好的发展环境和机遇,因此,本地区建筑工程项目风险评估研究在工程项目管理中显得尤为重要。建筑工程项目风险受多因素影响,本文考虑到新疆地区地域的特殊性和各风险因素的不确定性、复杂性等基本特征,以该地区工程项目为例进行风险因素识别。在运用层次分析法(AHP法)确定各风险因素权重的基础上,建立多层次灰色综合评价模型,对各风险评估指标进行综合评价和排序,构建了具有地域性特色的风险评估指标体系。本文在应用多层次灰色评价方法的基础上,采用基于遗传算法优化的神经网络方法(GA-BP神经网络),构建了新疆地区建筑工程项目风险评估模型,并应用此模型进行了新疆地区建筑工程项目风险评估分析。GA-BP神经网络模型预测值与多层次灰色评价结果吻合良好,验证了GA-BP神经网络风险评估模型的可行性。GA-BP神经网络有着较高的收敛速度和预测精度,为新疆地区建筑工程项目风险评估研究提供了一种新的思路与方法。
[Abstract]:In recent years, as an important part of risk management, risk assessment has been paid more and more attention in the construction industry. The construction industry in Xinjiang has a good development environment and opportunities. Therefore, the risk assessment of construction projects in this area is particularly important in the project management. The risk of construction projects is affected by many factors. This paper takes into account the regional particularity of Xinjiang and the uncertainty and complexity of various risk factors. Taking the engineering project in this area as an example, the risk factors are identified. On the basis of determining the weight of each risk factor by using AHP), a multi-level grey comprehensive evaluation model is established, and the comprehensive evaluation and ranking of each risk assessment index are carried out. A risk assessment index system with regional characteristics is constructed. Using the neural network method based on genetic algorithm optimization, the risk assessment model of construction project in Xinjiang area is constructed, which is based on GA-BP neural network. The prediction value of GA-BP neural network model is in good agreement with the result of multi-level grey evaluation. The feasibility of the risk assessment model of GA-BP neural network. GA-BP neural network has higher convergence speed and prediction accuracy. It provides a new way of thinking and method for risk assessment of construction projects in Xinjiang.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU71

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