济南龙洞路鑫源山庄房地产项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 03:27

本文选题：风险管理　切入点：模糊层次分析　出处：《中国海洋大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产业是居民生活的重要载体是城市建设的重要保障。从我国目前房地产行业实际来看,虽然近10年左右的时间,我国房地产业经历了大的起伏波动,但无法否认的是房地产行业仍然是我国国民经济的重要组成部分,因为房地产业对经济的重要影响,越来越多的学者从理论的方面对房地产项目管理进行了深入的研究,逐渐的形成了一门新的学科。从目前理论界来看,国外对项目管理的整个运作过程研究历史相对较早,国内对这方面的研究起步相对较晚,的的确确存在一定的差距。在项目管理的整个过程包括项目进度控制、项目风险管理等都是比较重要的本文结合济南龙洞路鑫源山庄房地产项目对风险管理进行了研究。本文以济南龙洞路鑫源山庄建设项目为研究对象,充分利用项目管理理论、项目风险管理理论进行了分析研究,主要研究步骤如下：首先对研究此项目的背景和意义进行阐述,并分析了国内外对项目风险管理的研究现状,详细介绍了济南龙洞路鑫源山庄建设项目的基本情况,提出了相应的研究内容和方法；其次通过对济南龙洞路鑫源山庄建设项目的投资阶段、前期准备阶段、建设阶段以及后期的销售阶段等四个阶段进行了风险识别,并对所识别出的风险着重运用模糊综合评价法进行项目整个过程的全面评价；最后结合识别、评价出的风险,分别针对四个阶段提出了相应的风险控制措施,主要是：投资决策阶段,应当着重考虑项目销售能否按照预定计划完成,销售资金能否及时得到回收、销售价格能否下降,同业者的竞争；前期准备阶段,对市场供求风险的控制措施,对资金筹集风险的控制措施,法律、法规风险的控制措施；项目建设阶段：对施工进度风险的控制措施,对设计变更风险的控制措施；项目销售阶段：主要是选择合理的营销模式等。本文研究的济南龙洞路鑫源山庄建设项目的风险管理,结合项目自身特点,基本的建立了房地产开发风险管控的模型,为房地产开发商提供了一定的参考依据,实现了对房地产开发项目的风险预警。同时,着重通过分析市场环境、项目本身优劣势特点等构建项目合理的风险防控体系,将这种策略运用到其他类似房地产项目是可行的,对于房地产企业来说具有一定的指导和操作意义。利用模糊综合评判法和层次分析法,建立了济南龙洞路项目鑫源山庄风险评价的模型,实现了风险评价和风险等级排序的评定,对项目风险管控具有指导意义。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is an important carrier of living is an important guarantee of city construction. From China's current real estate industry practice, although in recent 10 years, China's real estate industry has experienced large fluctuations, but it is undeniable that the real estate industry is still an important part of our national economy because the real estate industry, an important influence on the economy, more and more scholars have conducted in-depth research on the real estate project management from the aspects of the theory, and gradually formed a new subject. From the present theory, the foreign study of history in the process of project management in domestic research started relatively early, this the relatively late, indeed there is a certain gap in the whole process of project management including project schedule control, project risk management is more important in this paper Ji'nan Xinyuan cave Road Villa real estate projects carried out research on risk management. This paper takes Ji'nan cave Road, Xinyuan villa construction project as the research object, make full use of project management theory, project risk management theory is studied, the main steps are as follows: firstly the background and significance of the research of this project are described, and the analysis of the research status at home and abroad to project risk management, introduces the basic situation of Ji'nan Xinyuan villa Longdong road construction project, puts forward the research contents and methods of the corresponding; followed by Ji'nan Xinyuan villa Longdong road construction project investment stage, preparation stage, construction stage and sales of late stage of four stages of risk identification, comprehensive evaluation and the risk of the identified mainly uses the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for the whole project process; finally, the identification, risk assessment According to the four stages, put forward the corresponding risk control measures, mainly investment decision stage, should focus on project sales can be completed according to the schedule, funds can get timely recovery of sales, sales prices will decline, the industry competition; the preparation stage, control measures on market supply and demand risk, legal control measures to raise funds, risk, risk control measures and regulations; project construction phase: measures to control the risk of construction schedule, control measures of design change risk; project sales: the main stage if choosing reasonable marketing mode. This paper studies the risk management of Ji'nan Xinyuan villa Longdong road construction projects, combined with the project characteristics basically, the establishment of the real estate development risk management model, which provides a certain reference for real estate developers, the realization of real estate Risk warning development project. At the same time, mainly through the analysis of the market environment, advantages and disadvantages of the project itself characteristics construction project reasonable risk prevention and control system, this method will be applied to other similar real estate project is feasible, and it has certain guiding significance for the operation of real estate enterprises. Using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and AHP method, established the risk assessment of Ji'nan Xinyuan villa Longdong road project model, realizes the evaluation of risk assessment and risk rank, has the guiding sense to the project risk management.

【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F299.23;TU71

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