高新技术项目的关键链风险缓冲区讨论——基于熵权模糊评价法

发布时间：2018-04-11 03:00

本文选题：高新技术项目 + CCPM　；参考：《现代管理科学》2016年10期

【摘要】：进度管理作为项目管理的核心部分,对项目成败与否起到至关重要的作用。文章引进CCPM(关键链)技术来进行高新技术项目进度优化管理,并提出针对高新技术项目的缓冲区改进模型——fuzzy-CCPM模型。此模型考虑了在项目执行全生命周期中遇到的项目风险,通过测算风险概率与进度延误程度来计算缓冲区。该模型通过熵权模糊综合评价法,结合定性与定量分析,将高新技术项目风险与项目进度管理进行结合,从风险角度入手来构造创新缓冲区测度模型。分析时不仅引用某卫星综合电子设备研发项目进行分析,还将新的缓冲区计算方法与传统方法进行对比,提供优化选择。经过Mento carlo仿真模拟后得出新的缓冲区计算模型不仅具有优化效果而且更加符合项目实际情况。
[Abstract]:Schedule management, as the core part of project management, plays a vital role in the success or failure of the project.In this paper, CCPM (key chain) technology is introduced to optimize the progress of high and new technology projects, and a buffer zone improvement model for high and new technology projects, fuzzy-CCPM model, is proposed.This model takes into account the project risk in the whole life cycle of project execution and calculates the buffer by calculating the probability of risk and the degree of schedule delay.Through entropy weight fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, combining qualitative and quantitative analysis, this model combines high and new technology project risk with project schedule management, and constructs innovation buffer measurement model from the angle of risk.During the analysis, not only the R & D project of a satellite integrated electronic equipment is cited for analysis, but also the new buffer calculation method is compared with the traditional method to provide the optimal selection.After Mento carlo simulation, the new buffer calculation model not only has the optimization effect, but also accords with the actual situation of the project.
【作者单位】：中国科学院空间应用工程与技术中心;中国科学院大学空间应用工程与技术中心;中国科学院大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：中国科学院青年创新促进专项基金(项目号:CASYI2014135) 载人航天工程空间应用支持项目(项目号:09011009)
【分类号】：F276.44

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