“一带一路”背景下莫喀高铁项目建设阶段承包商风险管理实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-24 11:47

本文选题：一带一路 + 高铁　；参考：《西南交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近些年来,在"中国企业走出去"战略的推动下,我国企业在国际工程中占有了相当大的份额。我国在境外工程项目风险管理方面的研究却远远滞后于我国企业在海外的项目增长规模。在中国高铁"走出去"的各个环节中不可避免地面临各类风险,而"一带一路"特殊的背景使中国高铁"走出去"面临的风险也具有特殊性,其背后的意义会被很多国家和地区妄加猜测。国际铁路工程项目涉及众多的风险因素,其影响程度深、影响范围大,因此有必要对其面临的风险的防控机制与应对策略进行研究,在工程项目建设之前对项目建设中可能面临的风险进行系统研究,才有可能防患于未然,才有可能最大程度的减小风险发生的概率或将风险发生后造成的损失降到最低。因此研究中国高铁"走出去"面临的风险具有非常重大的意义。本文首先介绍"一带一路"(?)中国高铁"走出去"相关背景内容,阐述我国海外工程项目风险问题突出,引出本文的研究目的和研究价值。探讨国内外相关研究情况,并对各个学者的研究进行述评,提出采用系统动力学的方法来进行风险的建模,给出本研究所采用的技术路线图。介绍相关研究的理论基础。简要概括本文用到的具体铁路工程项目案例——莫喀高铁建设项目。本文的主要工作包括:1.对莫喀高铁项目建设阶段承包商风险识别方法进行阐述,采用文献研究法和专家访谈法对莫喀高铁项目建设阶段承包商风险进行识别、分类与排序,留下主要的风险因素作为模型的边界,忽略次要的风险因素,用系统动力学的方法建立项目建设期间面临风险的动态识别模型,就可以识别出导致进度风险、成本风险、质量风险、安全风险的主要因素。2.对莫喀高铁项目建设阶段承包商风险进行定性分析和定量分析,阐述项目风险分析的方法、确定分析方法、介绍莫喀高铁项目建设阶段风险定量分析过程、论述定量分析具体步骤,最后得出风险分析后的结论。3.介绍项目风险应对的概念及内容,提出莫喀高铁项目建设阶段承包商风险应对策略及建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, driven by the strategy of "going out of China", Chinese enterprises occupy a considerable share in international engineering. The research on risk management of overseas engineering projects in China lags far behind the growth scale of overseas projects. All kinds of risks are inevitably faced in every link of China's high-speed rail "going out", and the special background of "Belt and Road" makes the risks faced by China's high-speed railway "going out" also have its particularity. The meaning behind it will be guessed by many countries and regions. The international railway engineering project involves many risk factors, and its influence degree is deep and the scope of influence is large. Therefore, it is necessary to study the prevention and control mechanism and countermeasures of the risk faced by the international railway project. Before the construction of the project, it is possible to carry out systematic research on the risks that may be faced in the construction of the project, and it is possible to reduce the probability of the occurrence of the risk or the loss caused by the risk to the minimum. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the risks faced by China's high-speed railway. This paper first introduces "Belt and Road". The related background content of China's high-speed railway "going abroad" expounds that the risk of overseas engineering projects in China is prominent, and leads to the purpose and value of the research in this paper. This paper discusses the relevant research situation at home and abroad, reviews the research of various scholars, puts forward the method of system dynamics to model the risk, and gives the technical roadmap used in this study. This paper introduces the theoretical basis of related research. This paper briefly summarizes the specific railway projects used in this paper-Mozambique-high-speed projects. The main work of this paper includes: 1. This paper expounds the method of contractor risk identification in the construction phase of the high speed railway project in Mozambique, and adopts the method of literature research and expert interview to identify, classify and sort the contractor risk in the construction phase of the project. Leaving the main risk factors as the boundary of the model, ignoring the secondary risk factors, using the method of system dynamics to establish the dynamic identification model of the risk during the construction of the project, we can identify the risk that leads to schedule risk and cost risk. Quality risk, the main factor of safety risk. The qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis of contractor risk in the construction phase of Mozambique High Speed Railway Project are carried out, the method of project risk analysis is expounded, the analysis method is determined, and the process of risk quantitative analysis in the construction phase of Mozambique High Speed Railway project is introduced. The concrete steps of quantitative analysis are discussed. Finally, the conclusion of risk analysis is drawn. 3. This paper introduces the concept and content of the project risk management, and puts forward the contractor's risk response strategy and suggestions in the construction phase of the Mozamo-high-speed railway project.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U215.1

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