公路隧道施工工期风险评估研究

发布时间：2018-04-25 09:48

本文选题：工期风险 + 风险评估　；参考：《兰州交通大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：在国家的建设和交通事业飞速发展的同时,公路隧道建设的数量和规模也快速增长。但是由于工程外部环境复杂,施工的困难,参与人员的复杂等,给公路隧道施工工期带来的不确定因素越来越多。盲目的抢工期,不仅会带来成本的增加,更是会造成无可避免的安全事故。由于公路隧道施工独有的特性,因此影响工期的风险因素之间并不是孤立存在的,而是相互联系,相互作用。如何将风险因素进行辨别,如何建立针对公路隧道工程特点的风险评估模型,是当前研究人员所迫切需要解决的问题之一。风险评估是风险管理中最重要的一步,通过风险评估,管理者能很好的对风险进行辨别,估计和评价,更为后来的风险预控方案提供依据。本文首先通过对风险和工期进行定义和了解,引出公路隧道施工工期风险的定义,通过对其进行定义,了解到工期风险会给公路隧道工程带来的危害和损失。其次,对公路隧道施工工期风险评估的含义进行了介绍。风险评估分为风险辨别,风险估计和风险评价三个部分。风险辨别是工期风险评估的第一步,也是最重要的一步。只有将风险因素全部进行辨别,才能使风险估计和风险评价顺利的进行。风险估计分为风险概率估计和风险损失估计。最后一步是风险评价,只有结合实际情况建立相应的风险评价模型,才能抓住关键风险因素并了解风险发生后果的顺序,为后续的风险预控措施提供依据。风险评价方法分为定性方法,定量方法和定性和定量的方法。在本文中,采用数据包络法(DEA),计划评审法(PERT)和系统动力学(SD)对风险进行评价。然后通过实例,运用数据包络法(DEA),计划评审法(PERT)和系统动力学(SD)对公路隧道施工中各个环节的工期风险进行评估。采用数据包络法对施工方案进行评估并得到最优方案。利用计划评审法对关键路径进行确定,并对估算出完工概率。公路隧道施工中对工期产生影响的风险因素运用系统动力学进行监控:首先利用系统动力学对系统建立工期风险辨别模型,然后通过流图的建立,对施工过程中产生的风险进行评估。最后,结合实例分析得到三种评估方法在公路隧道施工工期风险评估中的适用阶段及特点。通过分析比较三种方法的不同之处,为评估方法的选择提供了依据。公路隧道施工中产生工期风险的因素很多,造成的危害也数不胜数,如果只采用一种风险评估的方法则很难对全局风险因素进行掌控。论文中采用三种评估方法对项目各个时期风险进行评估,为工程项目管理人员提供参考依据,具有较好的理论意义和实践意义。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of national construction and transportation, the number and scale of highway tunnel construction are also growing rapidly. However, due to the complexity of the external environment, construction difficulties and the complexity of the participants, more and more uncertain factors are brought to the construction period of highway tunnel. Blind time-snatching will not only increase the cost, but also lead to inevitable safety accidents. Because of the unique characteristics of highway tunnel construction, the risk factors that affect the duration of the project are not isolated, but are related and interact with each other. How to distinguish the risk factors and how to establish the risk assessment model according to the characteristics of highway tunnel engineering is one of the urgent problems that researchers need to solve. Risk assessment is the most important step in risk management. Through risk assessment, managers can identify, estimate and evaluate the risk, and then provide the basis for the risk pre-control plan. Firstly, through the definition and understanding of the risk and the duration of construction, the definition of the construction period risk of the highway tunnel is introduced, and through the definition of the risk, the harm and loss of the period risk to the highway tunnel project are understood. Secondly, the meaning of risk assessment for highway tunnel construction period is introduced. Risk assessment is divided into three parts: risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. Risk identification is the first and most important step in time-limit risk assessment. Only by discriminating all risk factors, risk estimation and risk evaluation can be carried out smoothly. Risk estimation is divided into risk probability estimation and risk loss estimation. The last step is risk evaluation. Only by establishing the corresponding risk assessment model can we grasp the key risk factors and understand the sequence of risk consequences, and provide the basis for the follow-up risk pre-control measures. Risk assessment methods are divided into qualitative method, quantitative method and qualitative and quantitative method. In this paper, data Envelopment method (DEAA), Planning Review method (PERT) and system Dynamics (SDD) are used to evaluate the risk. Then, by using data envelopment method (DEAA), plan evaluation method (PERT) and system dynamics (SDD), the paper evaluates the construction risk of each link in highway tunnel construction. The data envelope method is used to evaluate the construction scheme and the optimal scheme is obtained. The critical path is determined by planning review method, and the probability of completion is estimated. The risk factors that affect the construction period of highway tunnel are monitored by system dynamics. Firstly, the system risk identification model is established by system dynamics, and then the flow diagram is established. Evaluate the risks arising during construction. Finally, the application stage and characteristics of three evaluation methods in the risk assessment of highway tunnel construction period are obtained through the analysis of practical examples. The differences of the three methods are analyzed and compared, which provides the basis for the selection of evaluation methods. There are a lot of risk factors in the construction of highway tunnel, and the hazards are numerous. If only one method of risk assessment is adopted, it is difficult to control the overall risk factors. In this paper, three kinds of evaluation methods are used to evaluate the risk of each period of the project, which provides a reference for the project management personnel, and has good theoretical and practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U455.1

【相似文献】