H集中供热扩建项目风险评价与控制

发布时间：2018-05-04 04:30

本文选题：供热扩建项目 + 项目风险识别　；参考：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：城市集中供热系统是城市经济和社会发展的重要基础设施,也是满足我国北方地区城镇居民冬季采暖需求的基本公共服务。在东北地区全面实施采煤沉陷区扩建搬迁工程宏观背景下,如何有效扩建采煤沉陷区集中供热系统,提高公共服务质量,改善采煤沉陷区居民居住生活条件已成为采煤沉陷综合治理中的重要课题。A市是全国一百个重点产煤县之一,煤炭业为区域发展做出过突出贡献,当前采煤沉陷综合治理任务也十分突出。A市现有供热面积受场地和供热能力不足、现有炉型技术相对落后等因素制约,新增供热面积将以新建热源厂的形式解决。推进城市集中供热系统扩建,为沉陷区棚户区扩建住户提供优质供暖服务,是切实解决民生问题的重要之重,百姓的冬天暖不暖、冷不冷、安全不安全也是该项目推进好坏的评判标准。本文以H集中供热扩建项目为研究对象,对集中供热扩建项目风险进行深入分析、研究。第一部分,对本论文H集中供热扩建项目的研究背景和研究意义进行深入阐述,对项目概况进行概述,包括H集中供热扩建项目简述、项目承建单位概况、项目融资公司概况。结合H集中供热扩建项目对论文研究的理论基础进行概述,主要包括项目管理的定义、风险管理的概念及论文研究的主要内容与研究方法。第二部分,结合H集中供热扩建项目实际,对项目背景、项目特点进行细致分析,按照风险识别的依据选取适宜的风险识别方法对项目的前期、建设期、运营期中存在的各风险因素进行识别,建立一级指标风险3个,二级指标风险25个。根据项目已识别出的风险进行定性分析,通过查询相关资料、历史数据、同类项目投资失败案例、行业市场发展情况,咨询相关专家,与政府相关人员沟通洽谈后,对项目中存在的风险因素认真分析、仔细剖析。第三部分,对项目风险进行评价,通过对风险的综合评价确定项目各阶段风险和总体风险的程度等级,为项目风险的防控提供参考依据。第四部分,根据项目投资风险的识别、分析、综合评价结果,对所识别出的不同风险因素进行控制,合理使用减轻、预防、回避、转移、接受、储备等应对方法,降低该项目的投资风险。建立项目风险控制系统,将项目风险的控制系统化、程序化、规范化。第五部分,总结全文,阐述本论文得出的结论,以及该研究课题能够为国内外类似项目的设计和施工提供哪些经验借鉴。
[Abstract]:Urban central heating system is an important infrastructure for urban economic and social development. It is also a basic public service to meet the winter heating needs of urban residents in northern China. Under the macro background of comprehensively implementing the extension and relocation project of coal mining subsidence area in Northeast China, how to effectively expand the central heating system of coal mining subsidence area and improve the quality of public service, Improving the living conditions of residents in coal mining subsidence areas has become an important topic in comprehensive control of coal mining subsidence. City A is one of the 100 key coal-producing counties in the country, and the coal industry has made outstanding contributions to regional development. At present, the comprehensive control task of coal mining subsidence is also very prominent. The existing heating area in A city is limited by insufficient site and heating capacity, and the existing furnace type technology is relatively backward. The new heating area will be solved in the form of new heat source plant. To promote the expansion of the urban central heating system and to provide high-quality heating services for the residents in the settlement shantytown expansion is an important task to effectively solve the livelihood problems. The people's winter is not warm, cold or cold. Insecurity is also a standard for judging whether the project is good or bad. Taking H central heating extension project as the research object, this paper makes a deep analysis and research on the risk of the central heating extension project. In the first part, the research background and significance of the H central heating extension project are expounded in depth, and the general situation of the project is summarized, including the summary of the H central heating extension project, the general situation of the project contractor and the project financing company. This paper summarizes the theoretical basis of the research on H central heating expansion project, including the definition of project management, the concept of risk management, the main contents and research methods of the paper. The second part, combined with the reality of H central heating expansion project, analyzes the background and characteristics of the project carefully, and selects the appropriate risk identification method according to the basis of risk identification to the early stage and construction period of the project. The risk factors existed in the operation period were identified and three first-grade index risks and 25 second-level index risks were established. According to the identified risks of the project to carry out qualitative analysis, through inquiry related information, historical data, similar project investment failure cases, industry market development, consulting relevant experts, after communication with relevant government personnel, Carefully analyze and analyze the risk factors in the project. In the third part, the author evaluates the project risk and determines the degree of the risk and the overall risk through the comprehensive evaluation of the risk, which provides the reference for the prevention and control of the project risk. The fourth part, according to the project investment risk identification, analysis, comprehensive evaluation results, to identify different risk factors to control, reasonable use of mitigation, prevention, avoidance, transfer, acceptance, reserve and other coping methods, Reduce the investment risk of the project. Establish project risk control system, systematize, program and standardize project risk control. The fifth part summarizes the full text, expounds the conclusion of this paper, and what experience this research can provide for the design and construction of similar projects at home and abroad.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TU995

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