大科学工程可靠性增长与项目管理绩效的综合动态建模

发布时间：2018-05-21 10:31

本文选题：大科学工程 + 可靠性增长　；参考：《电子科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：大科学工程项目推动国家创新科技的进步,关系着国家的安全战略,体现了国家的综合实力,在我国的现代化进程中占有重要的地位。通常,大科学工程项目具有科研属性、持续发展属性以及一般工程项目的普适性。这决定了大科学工程项目需要完善的项目管理体系,因此有必要对大科学工程项目项目管理绩效研究。而由于科学工程项目的战略意义和研究地位,项目质量绩效具有更高的关注级别。而系统可靠性是项目质量绩效的核心体现,甚至是进一步制定项目管理决策的重要依据。因此要对项目管理绩效进行研究,有必要首先评价系统的可靠性增长情况。综上,本文以我国在建的某大科学工程项目为研究对象,针对该项目的试运行阶段,首先对大科学工程项目进行可靠性增长评价,接着基于可靠性增长展开项目管理绩效预测分析。针对研究对象已完成的试运行实际,展开可靠性增长评价方法研究。在建模过程中,基于Bayes理论,将大型复杂系统多试运行阶段多子系统的复杂结构,以及试验过程子系统分批投入运行的复杂特性融入建模思路;同时为简化模型的计算过程,将等效转换法、矩等价法、故障次数预测法等方法结合,解决阶段间可靠性增长信息的继承及模型的验证难题,从而建立针对性的Bayes可靠性增长评价模型。最后以实际试运行数据进行算例分析,验证模型的正确性和有效性。针对研究对象未来的试运行,展开项目管理绩效的预测评价方法研究。基于可靠性增长评价结果,针对项目的试运行运作过程,将流率基本入树逐枝建模技术与一般系统动力学建模思路相结合。以一般系统动力学建模思路,模拟试运行阶段系统“运行-维修”的循环过程,丰富模型变量;围绕项目管理绩效的重要影响因素逐枝建立流率基本入树,以实现对指标未来值的仿真。最后依据研究对象的历史试运行数据、未来基本规划值及可靠性增长评价结果,进行算例分析,验证模型的正确性和有效性;再通过敏感性分析研究系统可靠性增长对项目管理绩效各评价指标的作用关系。本文的研究丰富了可靠性增长评价的理论研究方法,拓展了项目管理绩效的研究领域;同时对工程实践中的可靠性数据分析和项目事前管理提供了方法依据。
[Abstract]:The great scientific engineering project promotes the progress of national innovation and technology, relates to the national security strategy, embodies the comprehensive strength of the country, and plays an important role in the modernization process of our country. Generally, large scientific engineering projects have the attributes of scientific research, sustainable development and the universality of general engineering projects. Therefore, it is necessary to study the performance of large science engineering project management. Because of the strategic significance and research status of scientific engineering projects, project quality performance has a higher level of concern. System reliability is the core of project quality performance, and even an important basis for making project management decisions. Therefore, in order to study the project management performance, it is necessary to evaluate the reliability growth of the system. In summary, this paper takes a large scientific engineering project under construction in our country as the research object. In view of the trial operation stage of the project, firstly, the reliability growth evaluation of the large scientific engineering project is carried out. Then the project management performance forecast analysis based on reliability growth is carried out. According to the completed trial operation, the reliability growth evaluation method is studied. In the process of modeling, based on Bayes theory, the complex structure of multi-stage and multi-subsystem of large-scale complex system and the complex characteristics of test process subsystem in batches are incorporated into the modeling idea, and the calculation process of the model is simplified. By combining the equivalent transformation method, moment equivalence method and fault number prediction method, the problems of reliability growth information inheritance and model verification between stages are solved, and a targeted reliability growth evaluation model of Bayes is established. Finally, an example is given to verify the correctness and validity of the model. In view of the future trial operation of the research object, the research on the prediction and evaluation method of project management performance is carried out. Based on the results of reliability growth evaluation, this paper combines the flow rate into tree by branch modeling technology and the general system dynamics modeling idea in view of the trial operation process of the project. With the idea of general system dynamics modeling, this paper simulates the cycle process of "run-maintenance" of the system in the trial operation stage, enriches the model variables, builds the flow rate into the tree by branch around the important influencing factors of the project management performance. In order to achieve the future value of the index simulation. Finally, according to the historical trial operation data of the research object, the future basic planning value and the reliability growth evaluation result, carries on the numerical example analysis, verifies the correctness and the validity of the model; Through sensitivity analysis, the relationship between system reliability growth and project management performance evaluation index is studied. The research in this paper enriches the theoretical research methods of reliability growth evaluation, expands the research field of project management performance, and provides the method basis for reliability data analysis and project prior management in engineering practice.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：G311

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